All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Industry veterans, degenerate gamblers & besties Chamath Palihapitiya, Jason Calacanis, David Sacks & David Friedberg cover all things economic, tech, political, social & poker.

E95: Winter is Coming, Europe's energy crisis, Kim Kardashian's new PE firm & more

E95: Winter is Coming, Europe's energy crisis, Kim Kardashian's new PE firm & more

Sat, 10 Sep 2022 09:14

0:00 Bestie intros: Luxury brand influencers, Birthday Party stories and more!

3:34 Jason reflects on the final Kara Swisher-hosted Code Conference, All-In media and hit piece requests

12:53 Passing of Queen Elizabeth II

15:39 Winter is Coming: Europe's energy crisis, potential fracturing of the Western Alliance, how we got here, endgame, and more

53:03 Kim Kardashian's new PE firm, content as the dominant distribution channel, what will mega-influencers do to legacy brands

1:03:46 Overprescribing of amphetamines to children

Follow the besties:

Follow the pod:

Intro Music Credit:

Intro Video Credit:

Referenced in the show:

Listen to Episode

Copyright © <> - all rights reserved

Read Episode Transcript

Point of privilege sacks wore this hat last week. What's this brand? Is this a Montclair hat do you wear? Yeah. And actually, did you see that, that tweet, people, it started trending. It started trending after I wore it. So it's sold out. Dude, you sold out the Montclair hat? So we have no advertising. We I feel like if we're not going to do any advertising on the show, we should at least get free clothes. We get to pick through them. Where would we like. I know. Where's my cut? Where's my cut as an influencer. The tweet basically said that I name dropped lower piano and sent it through the roof. And then Zack State dropped and Claire, both brands. Obviously our Italian, both entrepreneurs we know very well and so I asked that, I said not. Can you basically send this tweet over to them so maybe they can give us free clothes? Let's go, boys. Now we're talking. Now we got some bestie. Griscom now. You speaking my language this cup of tea. Speaking of Griffs, I do like Montclair the way that Jamath likes Laura Piano. Just so you guys know at the birthday Jason that you missed. Are we allowed to play poker? We had a birth date. We had a surprise birthday party for me. That through it sack showed up. Freeburg showed up. Their wife showed up. It was incredible. Jakhal basically stiff for me. I'm very sorry, by the way, that came together four days before your birthday. So just show you. Well, you know what? Kevin Hart showed up. Give us the best one liner. Which one landed? You have no idea. These guys roasted me. It was ******* incredible. But the best of it was at the end. OK, Hart gets up with no preparation and skewers everybody freeberg. I mean, do you, what do you think of like, Kevin Rose? So funny. He's like, my wife walked in here and she looks at me and she's like these. These guys was so complete my **** out Nick. But it was so funny. He dropped a line afterwards. Well, he's a ringer. He's a professional. Each person in the world and then sat to come after. Yeah, exactly. And Zander. I don't know why Zander was the MC, but because I should have saved Kevin Hart for last. But instead he calls up Kay Hart in the middle. Was so tilted. OK, so wait, so I couldn't make it because I had Burning Man. The Zander does the M seeing then Kevin Hart. You were saying? It's just to fill in the audience so they can understand it. Kevin Hart comes in, he gives this incredible ad Lib Roast and then Sax has to go after him. First of all, it's Sanders is funny. That's what a sandbag. It's a root canal. Sanders is funny as a root canal. He should not have been the MC. So yes, we did miss you, Jake. How you should have been. The second chart should have been left for last, obviously. But Zander, you know, Zander, being a good liberal couldn't censor me outright. So he had me go after K Hart. That's like the next best thing. Did you steal his documents? Did you steal all his jokes and put them in your through? I had all these, like, jokes, right? And I just threw them out the window. I can't. What am I gonna do? I'm not gonna deliver jokes after Kevin Hart. So I just told a story, you know, Kevin Hart, like, killed. I mean, the room was really mean. That's like, that's like getting punched by Mike Tyson being like, Oh my God, that hurts. It's like, **** it's Mike Tyson. Let your winners ride. Rain Man, Davidson. We open sources to the fans and they've just gone crazy. Queen. We were at. The the code conference we had the poker game, it was the last one after 20. Big shout out to Kara Swisher. Big shot to just I wanna say to Walt Mossberg and Kara Swisher because they did the conference many years together. Congratulations on a 20 year run. They're not going to do it, OK is not going to do it next year. But my friend Jim Bankoff who runs Vox is going to run it next year. So congratulations to him and Kara for, for a great run in all things. D They, you know, they they they they had Steve Jobs at the first one, the first speaker, and you can look it up. I got to ask him a question. Well, I don't know if you remember this, but you and I were there when gates and Jobs did that speech together. Unbelievable. What, what, what, what an incredible legacy that she documented. All of this code is incredible. Like, I mean, the number of the amount of memories I have from that place is incredible. Great. And so we'll see where the poker game goes next year, probably on some. To think the Olin Summit could have been that it's it's heartbreaking. It's heartbreaking. I'm not saying that I'll be hosting the code conference next year, but, you know, they're looking for an impresario. This is the problem with this pot is we're drawing too many. High profile people and now, but interestingly, Freeberg and I, we now have the press. Once the the the the press are trying to do a profile of the pod and so we had three or four different press outlets. Now I won't say which ones, but. Have all asked us to do like a sit for a profile. We've said no, but just because we said why don't we do a profile of them? Who's to make them the media you know. Well I mean it's got haters our competitors want to do a piece on us why we call the audience you know it's going to be a hit. The hit piece, it'll probably be hit piece. Yeah of course because we're we're stealing influence and clicks and views away from them. It's and besides, they're ideologically motivated anyway, so they're they're message police sex. You don't think you're ideologically motivated? Listen, if you contract the official narrative, then they write a hit piece about you. That's how they try to enforce discipline. It's true, actually, but not that I like the independent ones. I do have to say, like this whole, you know, sub stack movement in independent artists or independent journalists becoming even more Indian. Fact, Kara Swisher is more Indian now. She left the New York Times specifically because they were. You know, giving her a hard time about certain guests or certain conversations. And now she's, you know, doing her podcast independently with Vox, Publishing it for her. So you're seeing more and more of the voices go independent. New Republic is doing a hit piece on me right now. I have no idea why. It's the same thing, you know, me and I CC them. And I was like, here's my official comment. I can't wait to visit sax when he's in the White House in 20 years. And the guy's like, so you're saying sax is writing for president. I'm saying, no, I'm saying that you don't understand a joke. That was a joke. Yeah. And then. And then after you. Copying me, then they're like, Oh yeah. We were reaching out to David, too, to get and. No. Yeah. And they had reached out to you yet, right. I hadn't reached out anyway. Yeah. So they were going a little sneaky sneak. They were trying to get me to talk before. I don't have time to talk to them. No. Republics. A nice. That would be a nice profile. I think nobody reads. They're gonna look at you. Should be. If it were, if it were Michael Kinsley running in the New Republic, I'd be happy to, you know, take the time. But it's not that anymore. It's just another left wing rag that's into policing speech. You know, they asked, they sent us a bunch of questions like, you know why? Well, I don't. I don't have them in front of me, but they're like, they're basically like, why did you support the recall chasing buddy and stuff like that? And my, you know, PR person got back to him and said, have you seen the all in pod? Have you read David's like Twitter because he explained this like abundantly for the two years he was advocating every week, every week. We talked about this there's and the guy was like, we're sitting there in the transcripts, right. He's like, ohh, he talked about in the pod. He. The guy didn't listen to the pot. He is like, he tweeted about this. No, he just thinks I'm like some right wing donor who was like trying to get chasing kicked out that kind of narrative, you know? So I'm like, this is a total waste of my time. Go read all my tweets, go watch the all in pod and then come back with any questions that haven't been answered. This lazy reporting on the new republics part. Why would you do a profile if you didn't actually got better? Two of you are having a serious conversation while Frieberg is ******* around with his backgrounds and what is his background? It's that it's a future city in Saudi Arabia. Who else is planning on doing a hit piece about us? OK, so the information reached out. And we said no, are you going, are you saying this actually on the show right now? I I guess I think the way we should deal with all inbound press inquiries is we'll tell them no and then discuss it on the pod. Yeah. Because they wanna quote, if they wanna quote, listen to our pod and then transcribe what we say on this pod or reverse it. My quote for the New Republic is that if Michael Kinsley were still the editor, I'd be happy to spend my valuable time talking to you. But you feel that it's not they feel will be a fair profile. Of course it's not going to be fair. There are the speech. Please now, and the fact he didn't even know, the fact he didn't even know that I wasn't just a donor on the chaser Boudin thing. I was the first person that I'm aware of, at least within Silicon Valley, who called out Jason Boudin for the horrible job he was. That was bipartisan. By the way. It's not like David Sacks is one of the 3% of San Franciscans who are Republican. Like he's not able to vote for the 69% of people who voted Chessie Boutin out. So, like, you can't spin that one. Categorize me as, like, just a partisan. That's not really how I come at these issues. Can we go back to your quotes? So that was your comment from New Republic. Jakal, do you have a comment for New York Times? And then, you know, it started with Eric. I got you a fair Eric newcomer who's awesome, who worked at the information, started his own sub stack, which is really good by the way. And he comes on my other pod. He's awesome. And so I'm going to be a guest on his pod because I promised him and he does my pod, but I'm not going to be a guest. My philosophy is I told him, I said you can have me as a guest, but it can't be more than 10% all in because I don't want it to become an all in profile. We agreed as a group. We're not doing it all in profile right now. So up to 10% can be about all in, but the other 90% got to be my other projects and he said totally fine. I understand. But he asked 1st and actually I would be inclined to do with him because he's if we were going to do it. But then what do they need? I mean like we create like hours and hours of content and the dramas out here for everybody to like. I don't understand like what is what what do you need our cooperation. I think you wanna no, you wanna maybe frame and get a couple of sleep? No, you want you just want to get a couple of quotes that are unique. So that's worth reading the story. Guys have shaved their heads up each other's *****. Looks like it's like a serpent. Serpent. You're clear up here. Clean Bill of health sacks. So anyway. Eric Newcomer asked and then the information asked. And then Kevin roose. No, the New York Times just asked. Right, Kevin roose. OK. He was a nice make your comment. My comments are there. Times is. Yeah, enjoy the pod while it lasts. We're trying to keep it together. I mean I'll say the other big issue is I got approached by a couple of by two different people who want to, who want to represent the pod. They say they're seven and a half, $1,000,000 in advertising. We're leaving on the table by the way, 150 a week. Good. OK. And and literally that was, I want that number to grow to 10 million. Twenty million guys are killing me. You realize I would have a plane if you guys just let me sell the ******* ads on this thing? I could get like a million and a half dollars in jets. Yeah, you would have a plane if you just did one other thing. You're doing 100 different things. Just do one thing. I'll tell you what it is. You'd have a plane if you were smarter. That's not, that's not nice sex. That's not nice. I would have a plane if I got luckier. I will say whoever said this is going to help our our core businesses. And that's the reason I think might have been Trump. I am raising my 4th fund. I am doing it 506 which is public. I tweeted about it. I had 1200 people. Sign up for the webinar. And this means I might have to increase the size of my 4th venture fund because so many people listen to this pod and want to hang out. So thank you to everybody who listens to the pot. I think for you, bro. I mean, it's just nice, you know, I, you know, I struggle to raise the first couple of funds. You guys backed me, but like, I couldn't breakthrough as a solo GP. With the with the big lips. But I'm hoping to get one big LP this time and you know it's I'm going to be oversubscribed with all the high net worth individuals and everything, but I'd like to get like a memorial Sloan Kettering or somebody doing Cancer Research just to feel good about it. You know, I just wanna say that I supported jakal as a friend. In fact, I was the first LP check in your fund, but that does not mean that I endorse in any way, in any way that anybody else would come in. I mean whatever you're I don't want to say the performance, but you're doing OK. Let's leave it at that. Even I was not the first, but I was the biggest. You did. You did pretty big. Yeah, absolutely. And I will say that I'm still waiting for that moment to join you guys in. Jake. Yes, exactly. Yeah, we will and I'll just keep coming to your LP meetings and entertaining your PS:. Thanks, pal. Entertaining. Wait, is Jake Allen, investor in production board. We have done, we've done a syndicate. You are. You're my smallest investor. You're. I know how that happened, but yeah, let's get to work, guys. Do you guys want to talk about the queen, the passing of the Queen real quick before we start, or is that I would like to? Yeah, go ahead. I'm born and Tri Lanka. I was raised in Canada, so, and now I live in the United States. Obviously, I've been a citizen of all three countries, so two of the three countries. I've been a subject. To the queen, I mean, I'm part of the Commonwealth and I just want to say it was really sad for me, like these last couple days when I would saw that she was sick and then she had passed. I gotta be honest with you. Like, it really touched me. She is. And I can't describe to you guys. For someone who is part of that realm, how important she is as a person, and then you know if you've seen, you know the. The show on Netflix, it kind of romanticizes a little bit, but you know, she has seen 17 prime ministers, she's seen so many presidents, she has seen the history of the world, the modern world, being made in front of her. So, yeah, I'm a little sad and I think she's an incredible person. And even if you don't agree necessarily with monarchies in general, I think you have to be super positive history of imperialism. There's a lot of people that are kind of using this as a moment to be negative, right? Jamaica wants to become a Republic, Australia wants to become a Republic. They'll prosecute that in due time. But for right now, I just think that we have to celebrate this incredible woman who lived to an incredible age, who saw incredible things and who dedicated. Her entire life to the public service and lived it totally neutrally, which in today's world nobody else does. Everybody else takes a point of view, point everybody else. Everybody else tries to basically like, you know, create a schism. She never did that in 70 years as the Queen. Like, very stoic, very stoic and a symbol of service, not a symbol of dictatorship, right. I mean, there seems to be a very different role that she's taken as a monarch than, I think what has maybe historically been the role. Which is incredible. Pretty profound, right? It's extraordinary that somebody would put 70 years of service would be that diligent and I think stoic and and they are for her people and to the people who are, you know, suffering and and and and grieving. You know, that word you said really resonated with me. Like diligent is such a great word because it's like you're disciplined, you put in hard work, you're focused on the long term goal and then you're selfless. Not many people, not many people, Jacob, you know this. Exhibit that at all. But then definitely don't exhibit it over 70 years. It's it's extraordinary. And, you know, it's. I know a lot of people are grieving right now. So you, you have somebody as a citizen of the monarchy. I am of the Commonwealth rather. I am Pro Queen Elizabeth, and it deeply saddens me to see that she passed away. All right, listen, we got to talk about winter is coming. I'm not talking about Game of Thrones. Let's talk about something serious going on here. And we, you know, we don't want to be too repetitive here, but I think. We correctly predicted that you know this, if this Ukraine. I think maybe, Sachs, you pointed this out of this year. What do you mean we kemosabe? All right, listen, I'm trying to give you ******* credit and you interrupt me. Can you just take the ******* win? You're such a miserable *******. I try to give you one ******* finish. Finish what you're saying and you cut me off. Alright, listen, we've been talking about this Ukraine thing stacks correctly predicted. If this goes to winter, this is. Going to get acute and of course right on cue, here we have it. Russia has essentially cut off gas to Europe right now by claiming that the North Stream won the North pipeline that Russia built that goes under the Baltic Sea. They basically say a turbines broken in it magically at this point in time. Right before winter, this turbine broke, according to Putin, and he needs a turbine. And if they give him a turbine, he said he's going to turn it back on this in the face of Europe saying they were going to cap the price of Russian gas. I don't know how that works exactly, that you tell people what they can charge for gas, but Russian gas shipments, which Germany is particularly dependent on, have fallen 89% since last year and the price of liquefied natural gas. In Europe is 4 times level a year ago and eight times the level of the US obviously we are have gotten incredibly lucky to find all this natural gas here and we are a huge exporter of natural gas and oil in the United States. So we're good. This is the highest power prices have been in three decades. And the perfect storm is not limited to oil and the Russia and the Ukraine war. France is 56. Nuclear power plants are running at half strength because of shutdowns over corrosion problems. And as we talked about, maybe two episodes, droughts have undermined hydroelectric power because of the. That's not the main issue here. The main issue is the, well, I'm just saying this is there is a perfect storm here. It's not just that 40% of Europe's energy consumption comes from Russian natural gas, 40% and so. You could see variants. There's a base load requirement for lighting and electricity, and then there's industrial production and then there's heating and cooling. Heating and cooling demand is linearly tied to the number of degrees or above or below 65 Fahrenheit on average. And so as the temperature goes up, people turn air conditioners on. As the temperature goes below 65, they turn their heaters on. So there's a linear demand for power consumption at those. So number one is you could kind of, you could either cut base load, which is lighting and basic kind of. Operations, #2 is cut industrial production which is already happening. A lot of fertilizer plants are shutting down in the country that are dependent on natural in in the in the continent that are dependent on natural gas. And #3 is this shooting, heating and cooling and that really ends up being kind of a market driven function which is how pricey is this stuff because there's limited supply. So you could normally in a normal year see fluctuations around five, 1015% maybe with good kind of action and behavior, 40% of energy being cut. Is a massive, massive problem. There will be significant price climbs for the kind of variable demand and heating and cooling and so on, but for the price to go up by 6X7 X 8X10 X 15X over normal prices for someone. Is unbearable by the average household, unbearable by the average small business, unbearable by the average small building. And so it it's causing critical failure across the economy, across the currencies, across debt markets. And there's real concern that ultimately the shutting off of 40% of the energy supply to the continent leading into winter winter is coming where energy demand spikes because of the need for heating. Is going to cause real kind of problems. So there's the cataclysmic problem of people actually being able to keep their homes, there's the industrial problem of parts of the economy shutting down, and then there's the currency. Problem of the governments needing to step in and bail out industry by super expensive gas give it to their citizens and their businesses at a discounted price and seeing their national and sovereign debt skyrocket, which is now expected to happen. And as a result, the British pound is trading at its lowest level since 1985, and as a result people are rushing to the street from Prague to Cologne, Germany, even in London, proclaiming that the governments aren't doing enough #1 to stall. The the rate of inflation to make energy prices cheaper through action by having the government subsidized and #3, which I think was inevitable and is now becoming kind of the surprise factor to the Ukraine crisis. Citizens are saying end this war now, get to the table with Russia, come up with a settlement and get the heck out of the Ukraine. By the way, that's not everyone saying it, just to be clear, but there is this rising, rioting, protesting behavior happening across Europe, particularly in Eastern Europe, as a result of the Ukraine war. And so we're seeing, you know, I think a big shift in attitude and a big shift in kind of the societal perception of this war, particularly in Europe because they're so acutely feeling the effects and we are not in the US they're acutely feeling the effects and they're saying we need to stop this war now. We need to get out of the way. We need to let Russia turn the gas pipeline back on, and we need to figure out a resolution, stop supporting Ukraine. And that's what it's a voice. That's a voice that did not exist very loudly at the beginning. And it's and it's starting to swell running out of food or, you know, running out of heat to keep your kids. Term, I mean these are pretty acute situations throughout. What's the vibe in the Middle East about this or are they looking at it and seeing it as an opportunity? Are they looking at it and seeing it as? You know a manageable crises and or and what do they consider their participation in this to be? There's a very structured framework for energy production, which is OPEC and OPEC plus and you know. They have done. Not just the Middle East, but frankly the Middle East plus. The United States the best job possible to basically get the maximum demand so that there's as much energy as possible. The reasons that Europe are in an energy crisis really should be discussed. Honestly, so #1. An entire continent. Essentially allowed a 16 year old girl to dictate their energy policy. And when Greta Thunberg was able to shame. An entire continent into basically walking away from nuclear and not really evaluating how you can actually have energy independence. What they did was they put Europe in an incredibly fragile position. And at the beginning of this war, it wasn't clear. How much damage the lack of Russian energy would do to the European economy. But now it's absolutely clear how much is that? He said it on the credit card. We set it on the pod in February. How did they not? I mean, Trump said it years ago. I mean the first thing we said, how is it not obvious? The problem is you had these. Look, to be honest, you had these two goofballs. You had a goofball on the left, which was a 16 year old girl who knew nothing. And you're a goofball on the right, which is a president whose language turned people off, even though the message that he was delivering was 100% right when when Trump went to the United Nations. He was clear. He was precise. And in hindsight, and I'm saying this as a Democrat, he was right about the German reliance on Russian gas and and the European reliance on gas. What did they think would happen? The important thing was, was the reaction. Remember that German delegation snickering while he was? They were laughing. They were laughing. But but we're missing the real lesson. The real lesson is that in all of our haste to basically overtly judge Trump because of his. Delivery and his, you know, his personal style or whatever. We ran towards a 16 year old person who has no rooting in science or technology to dictate the energy policy of an entire continent. I mean, she was nominated for a Nobel Prize. Just to remind you guys. This is how insane all of these people were. So in an effort to virtue signal to the hilt and beyond what we essentially did, what the entire world did was turn a blind eye to science. And turn a blind eye to mathematics and simple understanding of supply and demand. And so now you have this situation where. The entire continent of Europe is probably on the precipice of and the minimum of recession, but frankly there's a lot of scenarios where it could be meaningfully worse. And I think what it does is ultimately it is forced the Russian end game. And that Russian end game is essentially the following, which is that. Germany will probably be the first to capitulate. But it'll be the combination of the United States and Europe who negotiate some kind of a settlement. They have to follow and and the reason, well, without calling it folding, I would just say there's a settlement and the reason that settlement is necessary is you're going to start to impact. 10s of millions of people's lives in an incredibly arduous way. And those people? Are asking their leaders to tell them why it's worth it. That's why you're seeing protests all around Europe. People have decided that this war has gotten two or three steps beyond what they thought they were getting into, and that it was. Shining light on a whole set of decisions that never should have been made. Sax what's I think what people most want to know and I'll go to Freeburg after sex freeberg. I think people are gonna want to know how do they close this gap in terms of the 40% dependency so you can start thinking about that. But sacks, how do we resolve this issue with Russia without enabling them? Because nobody wants to enable them and reward them for invading countries. But here we are. They didn't settle this thing in the whatever nine months we're in now and they don't have any more cards. Look like they need heat. They need. People can't freeze to death in Germany, so they're going to have to fold in some way. And it doesn't seem like there's any gap that can be closed here in terms of there's not enough firewood to go around. It's always stories about stockpiling firewood. That doesn't seem practical. Sure, you could reduce consumption by 10:20, maybe 25%. That does seem reasonable, but there's still a huge gap here. So. So what's the end game, sacks? I mean, well, first, just to just to put some numbers on this, there's a good report by Goldman Sachs called. Groups energy crisis is at a tipping point. This came out on September 8th and it says here that the price of natural gas in Europe, it used to just be €20 per MW hour. It's now above 200 per MW hour. So we're at 10 times the 10 year average in the market and winter isn't even here. So you know, Europe is the Titanic winner is the iceberg. The main difference between this and the Titanic stories that everyone can see? The iceberg. And yet no one is really changing course. So Liz trust, the new Prime Minister of the UK, said that Ukraine can depend on UK for support in the long term. Olaf Schultz said that Germany will support Ukraine as long as it takes Macron, you know, from France to that NATO will stand together and prevent Russia from winning the war. So, you know, leader after leader is doing the opposite of what you and and chamath have just said, which is try to figure out a compromise. In fact, in the last week or so new information came out. About actions Boris Johnson took back in March or April when there remember when there was discussion about a peace deal about a month into the war, it turns out that Boris Johnson went to Ukraine and said no deal, do not take the deal. We need to weaken Putin and Russia, not compromise with them. So the fact of the matter is that. The European leaders are increasingly out of touch with their own people. The agenda they are serving is not the agenda of or the desire of their people to basically stay warm in the winter or pay reasonable energy bills. They are serving this larger foreign policy agenda. This is why you're seeing people in the streets and Czechoslovakia and these other countries, and This is why the crisis will only grow in winter. I think you guys are just assuming there's going to be a compromise. I'm not sure that's true, these leaders. Stubborn. So This is why, for example, we've already now seen in the UK Boris Johnson. Lost power, although List Trust basically has the same policy. Mario Draghi has basically lost in Italy and Bulgaria replaced their PM. So the leaders, the dominoes are starting to fall in Europe and I think there's going to be a lot more of this and who knows what governments were going to end up with in Europe in six months? What do you predict will happen? You think they're gonna hold their ground and not have a conversation with pointed out the mistakes that? These leaders made following Greta Thunberg I think there's another mistake they've made, which is I think all of these leaders have pulled a Tony Blair. Do you remember Tony Blair? Tony Blair was the Bill Clinton of the UK after Margaret Thatcher. He was the first Labor PM to get elected. He was incredibly talented as a politician and he was very popular in the UK until he did one thing. You know what that one thing was he went along with George W Bush's Iraq war. The people of the UK did not want to get involved in that. Or, and Blair acted as a W's lapdog and went along with it and bought into all of the lies about that war, and today he has 0 credibility in the UK. It's really actually a sad story. I think that these European leaders are making a similar kind of mistake with respect to Biden's proxy war against Russia. Now let's go back. I want to go back to a point you made Jason just and then I'll turn to Freeburg. Which is you talked about the fig leaf, that the Russians are blaming this on a turbine. I don't think that's even really true anymore. I mean, the Russians have basically said it's lying, of course, yeah, yeah, but but I think the Russians have basically said that. That, listen, this is also your sanctions, sanctions, sanctions and a turbine. It's like, pick one, right? Listen, but, but but but the point I'm trying to make it look, obviously this is retaliation by the Russians. The problem is the stupidity of Western leaders in not thinking there's going to be retaliation. I mean, all you're hearing right now from Western leaders is indignation that Russia would play the only card they have, the card that was obvious they were going to play, you know, meanwhile, look at what we've done. So you've got administration officials? Talking about the fact that we have commandos on the ground in Ukraine, you've got administration officials bragging about the fact that we are helping to paint targets on the backs of Russian generals so they can be killed. You have administration officials boasting about providing the the artillery spotting so we could sync the mosque the the Russian flagship. I'll provide receipts for all these things. OK? You've got Biden saying that Putin cannot remain in power. You've got Lindsey Graham saying he could be solved. Well, what is the let's go forward. How does it resolve? You've got Lindsey Graham. Saying they need to be assassinated like Caesar, you've got the US appropriated 40 billion two hold on a second in weapons to Ukraine. So my point is this, OK, the US and the Western alliance, they are doing everything in Ukraine except pulling the triggers, OK? They are doing the. OK, so the point is we are in a proxy war with Russia. What did you expect was gonna happen? These leaders are not even playing checkers. Happen only forward. Hold on, you're in the review. Forget about playing chess. They're not even playing checkers. Meaning they cannot even anticipate what the Russians are going to do next. It was eminently predictable, imminently predictable that the Russians were going to turn off European gas and create this crisis. So what should they have done? What they should have done was work out a white deal. I know that, but we're kind of repeating. The same position you have every week here, I'm trying to get to going forward. So, freeberg, what should we do going forward here, both on an energy basis and a political basis? That's the thing. I I get the sort of breakdown of what occurred here in your position, sacks, but what do you think freeberg should happen going forward? How do we resolve? Said there's there's an acute energy shortfall. You can't just make that up. You can't convert oil into natural gas to heat people's homes. It's impossible structurally right now in the time frame that it's needed. So what should the US and what should the US be doing now? That they're not doing. Yeah. I I think that there's going to be this inevitability that we're going to need to broker a deal with Russia and there's and and what what I think you'll see over the next couple of months particularly because winter is coming. Is you need to, uh, there's going to be a lot of saving face. And so I think I've always said from the beginning, I think that Putin's calculus is to go as far and as deep as he can go so that he could eventually negotiate himself back out in a way that leaves him with what he originally wanted in the 1st place. And I think that there are certain strategic regions and certain strategic assets that it's pretty clear and evident he wanted. And if he's gotten enough in addition to that, he can give up. The additional part and you can get sanctions lifted and you can turn gas back on and be left with what he actually wanted and ultimately get out of this thing. And then the the face saving will be from the West will be, hey, we got him to give up this, we got him to give up this, we got him to agree to not incursion and there'll be some sort of, you know, hey, we got Putin knocked down a bit and you know we got him out of there, we did it, we won high 5. Meanwhile Putin smiling because he got exactly what he wanted. I think that's where this is all going to end up over the next several months. I think that's that's. If it doesn't, there's going to be significant writing and civil unrest in Europe and and there will be a significant, significant economic effect because so much of Germany and so much of the broader continent is dependent on a stable low cost or lower enough cost energy supply for the production of things that are produced in Europe. And if those things can't be produced profitably because the end market won't pay for it, the economy will be shattered, economies will be shattered and people will be really unhappy. Food will climb and the currency will be destroyed. And you know what happens when currencies get destroyed? All imports become inflated in price and then you have inflation. If there isn't a resolution in the next few weeks there will be civil unrest. There will be a really cataclysmic concerning economic effect. And you think that forces the governments to just fold to Putin and give him some portion of the don't know for sure is what are they going to do from a face saving move perspective? What are they going to say they do, Ukraine or the Ukraine? We're gonna have to plow so much money into the Ukraine to make them feel OK about what we're going to ask them to do in order to remove or to end the crisis. And so there's going to be this huge check, this huge investment in Ukraine, the Western investment in Ukraine, the the the support mechanism for the country, for the people left behind in order to get this thing resolved. And so my guess is huge amount of money from the West and EU going into Ukraine. Ukraine agrees to let Putin keep some. Region some assets. Putin agrees to remove himself from certain regions and give up certain assets. Sanctions are partially lifted, but they're partially lifted enough to get the flow of gas going and to get the economy turning again chamath. Any final thoughts here as we turn around their base here on this, of lessons learned and how to avoid this in the future? You may. You may want to find the clip, Nick, from July, where I said the tip of the spear in the fall was going to be the European energy crisis. Oil is at 105 bucks a barrel. Russia is basically trying to break the back of Europe by now messing with their Nat gas supplies. The German Energy minister yesterday said that if that happens, it could be a contagion equivalent to Lehman Brothers with respect to energy. You're already starting to see food riots, food insecurity. Energy and security, rampant inflation, sovereign defaults. And you have to ask yourself, like, how are we going to really tourniquet this whole thing and prevent a much bigger contagion like freeberg just talked about? If Russia decides to play hardball against Europe or America, we better hope that it's a mild winter because very quickly you can go from plus 1,000,000 barrels to minus two in a in a heartbeat. Thought of the following which is that I think that the. European system is going to be put under stress because there are really a bunch of different countries with very different incentives right now, where some countries are in desperate need of energy. Some countries can probably stave it off for a little bit longer. Other countries are so adamantly focused on their position. On Russia over and above. Any source of energy that they may need or don't have. So I just think like this is a really good point to take a step back and realize that. In. All of these conflicts. Sadly, whenever you have like all of these very complicated countries fighting very complicated wars, it's really important to understand what these trade-offs are, because ultimately what we're learning in Europe is that irrespective of what you morally and ethically believe is right in the Ukraine. The minute that it affects you and Jason, you've said this. What is it like? You're only one meal away from a revolution, is that? I think it would be you're only like 5 days away from having no heat before people ride on the street. It's probably the equivalent, but that. But that's the lesson, which is that at the end of the day, it is. When you're in a position of comfort, you can focus on forward and outlooking moral attributes and ethical perspectives that matter. But the minute that you are affected at home, where you cannot take care of your children or heat your house. All bets are off and I think this just goes to show you that. If you're going to sort of engage in proactive foreign policy, you need to make sure that domestically you don't have any Achilles heels. And Europe had a massive Achilles heel, which is energy. And then, you know, the minute that they were, they were just tested. And basically they're going to have to take this much more seriously going into next year because they've enabled the Mad Men. That is the dominant narrative. There is a simplistic binary that has been set up that this is a war between autocracy and democracy. And that's all there is to it. And my point is that this conflict has always been more complicated than that. OK? And if you really want to understand this conflict, you have to go back and understand the history of it. And, you know, the American media and the British media, they basically act as if this whole thing began. On February 24th, for a good example of this, there was an excellent piece by William Perry, who is Bill Clinton's Defense Secretary. OK. He said how the US lost Russia and how we can restore. Relations and he talks about how we can chart a way forward for peace, which I think is your question, what Perry points out. Remember again, he was Clinton's Defense Secretary in the 1990s. He almost resigned in protest over NATO expansion eastward. This was basically a contradiction of the verbal assurances that James Baker and and President George Herbert Walker Bush had given Gorbachev that we would not expand NATO one inch. Eastward, in any event, that's when NATO expansion began was the late 90s. Perry was against it because like George Kennan, like former ambassador to the Soviet Union James Matlock, he understood that it would be provocative. It would be seen as a provocative move by Russia. OK, he was against that policy. The other thing he points out is that in the 1990s the Russian economy collapsed because they moved off of Soviet system and we did absolutely nothing to help them. As a result of that, we bred the conditions for a strong man to emerge, who basically. Prioritize the restoration of Russian pride, dignity, and strength. OK, so he points out the ways that our policies helped create Putin. I think what he basically suggests in terms of the way forward is, look, we have to realize that the security architecture of Europe was crafted in the late 90s and early 2000s at a time when Russia was flat on its back. OK, what are the Russians basically demanding? What were their demands prior to this war? There were two things they really didn't like, OK? Number one was they did at their doorstep. We've been they didn't want Ukraine admitted to NATO and then #2 is, they didn't want American missiles right on their border. That could hit Moscow in 5 minutes. OK, those were their two demands. The fact of the matter is we never were willing to negotiate at all on those two demands at all, and instead we basically just claimed they were a pretext by the Russians for an invasion. Well, look. We never earned the right to call those a pretext. If you want to call them a pretext, you take those issues off the table. Then if the Russians invade, you know they're liars. The truth of the matter is we refused to negotiate anyway. We never played that move, and so we'll never know. I I don't disagree with you about that point. OK. The big lesson here. The European Union needs to learn the lesson of this issue is not spending more money. I wanna, I wanna keep going with this because I think this issue is so much deeper. OK, listen, one of the problems we have in this country is that when a war. Doesn't work out. We just ghost it. We never talk about Afghanistan anymore. We never talk about Iraq anymore. We understand they were gigantic mistakes, but who is analyzing why they happened? Who who's responsible for the failure? The fact of the matter is there's been no accountability. The same people who drove our disastrous foreign policy in the Middle East are the same people who have driven our Ukraine policy in Eastern Europe. There is no accountability concept. Not just that. It's the foreign policy elite in this country, OK? That's my point. My point? Is this my point? Yeah. OK. So my point is this and you're, it sounds to me like you're willing to now say, what compromise can we find to get out of this war? OK. My point is, since I'm gonna trying to avoid war from the beginning, I I do think we did not play the piece of, hey, if NATO is not here, if we don't let them in, NATO, if we take that off the table, will you move these troops back from the border and who, we don't know if they ever offer that or not, but we do know actually there was there was new information that came out of the last couple of weeks. OK. Obviously they should have offered that. I mean. The the The the real issue here is dependency on dictators for energy, because if he if he did not have the ability to yank that gas chain, if he didn't have that Nord, he would be neutered right now. But we knew that. We knew that. So so if you're playing, you're not even saying it accurately. If he didn't have no, it's that doesn't exist without an entire other counterparty agreeing to agree if Germany had kept their nukes going, and if they had made other plans, perhaps with them. We're going to let you know the United States. I mean, we don't forget Biden canceled our energy independence the first day he was in office. It doesn't matter that it's a dictator on the other side. There is a dependency on the other side, and that is an issue for energy independence. Since the beginning, I've been talking about nuclear. Since the beginning. For decades, I've been talking. But one of the challenges is if everyone creates independency on all of their supply, then there is no export market for countries that benefit from exports because they have a surplus. And so we see this around the world. Food with energy, with manufacturing, with that bad thing with oil, that would be a good thing with oil, wouldn't China? There was no market for it. If there was no market for oil, then a lot of classes that a lot of countries that do not have energy stocks locally would not be able to acquire energy stocks. And so a more free more doesn't make sense if you if you're saying if we lowered our use of oil, that would make it cheaper, which means that developing countries would pay less. Jacob, just just let me finish with my point. For one second. In every country you are either an importer or exporter. You're an importer of manufactured goods. Or an exporter of manufactured goods. You're an importer of energy, you're an exporter of energy, an importer of food and exporter of food. It doesn't matter. And we often use this as a way to characterize the leadership of these countries as being bad when we end up in conflict with them. It doesn't matter that this person is that there's an autocracy on the other side or if there's a democracy on the other side. At the end of the day, if there's a global trade agreement, if there is a supply agreement and that supply agreement gets broken, it's both parties fault for being dependent on the supply agreement and then allowing conflict. You think what you're saying is accurate? And I'll explain why. Reasonable parties who are democracies, if they get into a trade dispute, generally do not invade each other's country. So that's where your argument breaks down. It would be absolutely fantastic if the lesson the European Union learned here was let's not be dependent. What did the United States, you hold on hold. What did the United States do to Iraq? OK, did we not invade those countries? I'm not talking about. I'm talking about the dependence. What you just said. You said that democracies do not invade and libido. I said we should debate and we are democracies 2 democracies that are in a trade war are generally not gonna invade each other. We invaded Afghanistan, actually this is 911, OK? And the the first Iraq war we invade we protected. Kuwait, right. And so, you know, I'm not here to justify every war the United States has been in. I'm just talking about, in this situation, the EU lowering their dependency. And if you were going to lower your dependency on any country, you'd start with the autocratic ones, you'd start with the dictatorships. It's not, not logical to you, Friedberg, or there is a there is a neoliberal view. Hold on a second. There was a neoliberal view. It's a court of neoliberalism. It's called economic interdependence theory, which is that as nations become more interdependent with each other, they're less likely to go to war. China was the perfect example, right? What's the perfect example? There was also a belief that as China became richer, they become more democratic. That hasn't worked out so well. Yeah. I'd say economic interdependence theory hasn't worked out so well either. So this is a core failing. Now you're modifying the theory to say, well, only economic interdependence among democracies. Fine. But that was not the view. That was not the view for the last 20 years. It was a quartet neoliberal if we, if we make ourselves because if we make ourselves dependent on these other countries, then somehow it's going to lead to peace. No, it actually is just led to dependency was a foolish. Policy we should have been energy independent. Europe should have been energy independent. They should not have made them. I do agree that it was foolish. We're in agreement. Yes, you're disagreement, but got it. OK. No, no, I'm not. I think but but by the way, I'm not, I'm not a proponent of people not being energy independent. The reason I think people can be energy independent today is because of technology like nuclear. And I think that all these every country in the world should find a way to get energy independent. I'm also an advocate of global trade. I am an advocate because I think that global trade enables economic progress. It allows the consumer to get the cheapest product possible and for the producer to find a market for the products that they make and that that there's an element of this which is energy. But energy doesn't need to be a trade traded market as much anymore because of technology, manufactured goods, food. We still haven't cracked the nut on here. We are then in agreement Freeburg. This is sort of an ancillary point, but I just want to say that historically, there's been no basis for believing in economic interdependence theory. If you go back to World War One, Germany and the UK, where each other's largest trading partners before World War One didn't stop them from getting into war. War Two, I think Russia's biggest trading partner was Germany up until the moment when Hitler invaded them. So listen, economic interdependence has never has never happened there. It doesn't, yeah. But the point is there's very little historical basis for believing that economic interdependence prevents wars. Which, by the way, that really speaks to the foolishness of our China policy. But look, this is sort of a scientific question, though with the with the China policy, because I think this is a very important discussion we've discovered, which is. Energy independence is one thing, and then you have trade, which is another. And does this actually push off wars? Do we actually know that we we might have actually pushed off a war with China because we make iPhones together? Could we have been in a conflict earlier if we weren't so independent? And have we actually pushed out a potential conflict with Taiwan, etcetera, Hong Kong because of the interdependence, the benefit of hindsight we can see with the benefit of hindsight what we can see is that our Chinese policy of interdependency. Really was called constructive engagement was a complete and unmitigated disaster. It why it was because we made China rich. You go back to the beginning of dung shopping, beginning his economic reforms. The average Chinese made $2.00 a day. Now their economy is roughly the same size as ours. And how are they using their newfound economic wealth to build up their military, their Navy? They're basically militarizing the South China Sea. They're basically being aggressive towards their neighbors. We fed. That Chinese tiger, until it became a dragon that was capable of challenging us for global preeminence, that was a foolish, foolish strategy. The fact of the matter is that. And listen, this is a mistake that economists make is that they only look at whether trade creates surplus as opposed to the distribution of those benefits. And the fact of the matter is that China benefited disproportionately far more than we did from the China trade over the last three argument we've made on this. Kisses. I think Freeberg made it is that we lifted 500 million people. I think I made it as well out of abject poverty in China. But I see your point. Yeah. It's it's going to you have created, we have created the return of a, we've created the return of of great power rivalry. We have created a competitor to the US who has roughly almost our same size economy. And that is going to challenge us for privacy. And we need diplomacy. We need very sophisticated diplomacy because this situation with China. It's it's not a clear path to what? Why? Why is it that you think that we need diplomacy with China when we didn't need it with Russia? No, I I do think we did it. I, I fully conceded that we should have avoided, we should have taken note off the table. I said that from day one. Listen, it's it's really important to not just say that, oh, we failed to play chess here, that this policy isn't working. Like, let's not forget how we got into this conflict. We got into this conflict because the administration said, I think there were four main pillars to our current Ukraine strategy. Number one, that Ukraine could basically defeat Russia if we basically just gave them weapons. That has not happened yet. #2. The administration said that sanctions would weaken Russia, maybe even destabilize its leadership, and collapse this economy. That has not happened. The rubles at an all time high, and because gas prices have gone up so much, their economy has suffered. But on the whole, it's still doing pretty well. The third. Contention that was made by advocates of this proxy war is that the sanctions would hurt Russia more than Europe. That has not happened. Europe is already hurting more than Russia, and it's about with winter coming, it's going to hurt even more. And then the last thing. The last contention that was made, our support for Ukraine would rally the world around us and would strengthen the Western alliance. And I think what we're starting to see is that the Western alliance is fracturing and you see these gigantic protests in Prague and these other countries. So listen, these were the pillars of our. Ukraine policy and they have all turned out to be flawed and wrong, and they're becoming more wrong by the day. And yet there is no reappraisal of our policy that's coming out of Washington or London or Paris. None of these leaders are saying that there's a problem. So I think we're headed for not just an economic crisis but a political crisis in Europe because the fundamental tension between the needs of these people, which is to basically preserve their economy and to stay warm in their homes. And the ideology of their leaders were fanatically committed to waging a proxy war against Russia instead of finding a diplomatic outcome that was available last year. It was available in January. It was even available in March or April. That disconnect is the fundamental problem. All right, let's go. Come on, let's talk about Kim K come on. There's no word on how much money she's raised for her private equity from from Russian oligarchs, but Kim will serve as Co founder and Co managing partner of the firm was co-founded with 16 year Carlisle veteran Jay Samons. Who run day-to-day OPS? And. People may not know this, but Kim found it skims. That's her undergarment company in 2019. It was last valued at $3.2 billion, and she is obviously got the largest following. And it's the biggest influencer in the world, 329 million followers on Instagram alone. Our friend Gavin Baker responded to Mr Beast. Actually, Mr Beast actually just passed. OK, so those are two examples of people who can put a consumer package good in the world and make it #1 instantly. Gavin Baker, a friend of ours. Tweeted that she adds massive value in this exact regard. Uh, what do you think, boys? Is she gonna have? Here's why I think, here's why I think this is so important. Go I I have a really strong belief that in the next 30 years or so, all traditional brands are going to die. And I think that what we're seeing happening right now with the with the power of democratized media like us creating a podcast, there are hundreds and now thousands of individuals. Who have stood up and created their own brand and their own presence because of the content that they create on Twitch, on Twitter, on YouTube, etcetera, on podcasting. And as a result, they become the trusted sources of influence. And it's why they're called influencers. And ultimately these influencers are becoming the brands they can like. Mr Beast launched the chocolate bar, became like the number one chocolate bar in the country. He just opened up a burger restaurant last week. Number one. People showed up #1. No more than that, like 100,000 or something. It was insane. It was like the number one Burger restaurant opening #1 restaurant opening in history. Kylie Jenner launch of the makeup brand takes off, becomes this billion dollar brand. Kim Kardashian launches a clothing brand, becomes a $3 billion brand. These are not just brands, they're businesses. And here's what I think is the most prescient M and a transaction of 2022 and you guys can tell me I'm crazy. I think the most important M and a deal of 2022 was when PEN Gaming bought Barstool Sports because it shows that every consumer packaged good or every consumer services business ultimately needs to be a content business. And if you don't naturally have content creation in your blood, you have to go and buy a content business or you are going to die. And that's why I think all traditional brands that aren't oriented and built around content creation as their primary differentiating foundation will not survive and will not be able to compete effectively. And instead, what we're going to see is influencers and individuals that create content, build and distribute consumer goods and consumer services in a more efficient way because guess what? They've got distribution. Built in distribution is the number one problem with all consumer services and all consumer goods. So I think in the future it's advertising, all advertising and marketing gets replaced by content creation and content creation direct to consumers through the the social media platforms becomes the mechanism by which people are aware of and buy goods and services. So that's why I think this deal is so important and I think it's a, it's a, it's another one of what we're seeing in 2022, which is the stacking away towards the end of nameless, faceless brands and the evolution of the influencer. I think Kim Kardashian is incredible. She is an incredible businesswoman. And the fact that she can stand up what will probably be like a multibillion dollar private equity fund? And frankly, the companies that she invests in has a really compelling chance of being successful because she could basically pour so much visibility and notoriety and awareness of a brand. Into that company, that that CAP table. If I was a director, I would say, of course, give her whatever she wants. So that's the first thing. And the second thing I would say is that. I think what Freeberg says is completely right. I think we're at a point in time where the biggest thing that if you want to build a consumer business, my advice to you as an entrepreneur is. You need to build direct distribution and scale because what that translates into what Kim Kardashian proves, what Mr Beast is proving is it's all about subsidized cap where you don't trust your cost of customer acquisition, where you are not paying dollars to Facebook and Google. But instead, because you have direct distribution in a relationship with 10s or hundreds of millions of users, you can pour them into different experiences. And when you can do that, it's basically virtually 0 cost. Your entire margin structure of how you build the consumer business has changed overnight. So that's what they've proven. They've proven that you need to 1st build the brand and then you can put you convert that brand into distribution funnel and then to basically pour all kinds of services into it. And one of the services as it turns out that now a private equity fund. So I think it's incredible and I hope she's super successful, do you think this influencer? Strategy is here for and going to have a major impact on the venture business. I think it's pretty interesting soaking it, but I think it's pretty interesting in the consumer space for the reason, Freeberg said, which is distribution is so hard, so creating a great product is hard, distribution is even harder, and this is a realization I had. Yeah, many years ago and which is when I started doing Yammer and then you know, craft started focusing on SAS, which is at least when you do a B2B product, you know a software as a service. You can charge enough money for it that you can get a sales team to pencil. So in other words, you charge an enterprise enough money for the software that you can then pay a salesperson to go out and sell it. So there was always a distribution model built in for B2B. And that's why I've always liked that is there's a playbook there where if you just build a good enough piece of enterprise software, good enough product, there's always going to be distribution for it. However, that's not true with consumer because consumer products are usually ad based. You can't generally charge that much if you can charge at all. They have high churn rates. And so therefore, BC only works if you can find a very low cost, scalable distribution channel. And I think that's what to Freeburg point, I think that's what the Kardashians are offering. It's clearly worked for their own. Products, I guess we'll see how extensible it is, but this is really the key challenge with all consumer stuff is just how do you find a very cheap way of distributing it? In the past, the consumer products I've been involved in like PayPal or investing in social networks like Facebook, they were viral. Then they were exponentially viral. So they were able to basically grow virally for free. So you either have to have, you know, extraordinary virality to the product or some other distribution trick that allows you to scale at low cost. Because you can't afford a sales team. And what we're seeing is the base of doing that is to create content. Mr Beast created content for years before he built a big enough audience to do that. Kim Kardashian did content for years before she had a distribution to do that. Dave Portnoy and Barstool Sports. I mean the guy Dave Portnoy. And this is incredible. Jason Calacanis, yeah, seriously. I mean, Portnoy was out rating pizza and, you know, now he has all these other kind of, you know, media and content kind of branches of his platform, but it's all content creation. And on top of that, content, not everybody's good at it. Freeburg, that's the other problem. Get it? But that's not what I'm saying and that's my point. So let's say Coca-Cola tried to build a content Business Today. How good would they be? Not very good. That's why they're going to end up dying or they're going to end up needing to buy. Really interesting concept. I mean, do you think Mr Beast Burger could beat McDonald's? Yes. And that's what I'm saying. That's my point. That's why I opened up. I'm insane when you think about it, if Mr Beast had 5000 franchisees. Yeah. But this is exactly my point that I said at the beginning, every traditional. Brand will get destroyed in 30 years and they will get destroyed by the influencers that have built an audience through content creation and now creating businesses on top of that that compete with the traditional incumbents. Not technology advantage businesses. I'm talking about core consumer goods and services. They also have to be good and gaming. Penn Gaming does betting, you know, there's no real advantage in betting you build a sports book. That's it. The reason Penn Gaming bought Barstool is they now have an audience that they can drive to their sports books, right? And so the same will happen. We still have to make a great. Product, though, I mean, that's the other challenge here is can you also be a product savant? Can you be a virtuoso in building a product in addition to being an influencer? Yeah, I think that's what Kim gets, right. She makes great product. And Mr Beast, his first burger was not good, but now this new burger, from what I understand, is awesome. So you have to have both things switched on. Think about, think about what's easier and what's harder. What's easier. Building an audience of 2 billion or a billion people that listen or watch you every week, or building a great burger, it's a lot harder to build the audience. And so what's the problem? If it's a car, it's really hard. Yeah, it's not. I'm not talking about complicated cars and stuff or electronics. I'm talking about basic consumer goods, cereal, beverages, food. Why not commodity, music, audio, like like all the stuff that's commodity, you know, betting. I mean, this is not like a bar. Betting is not a differentiated service offering to consumers. So ultimately, how do you differentiate? It's the, it's the audience that you've now built, the brand that you've built through the audience because of content creation. And so This is why I just want to point out distributed content creation I think represents. One of the most profound investing opportunities over the next decade because if you can give individuals the ability to make high quality content, they can scale an audience that that that now can be monetized in 1000 ways. Not just putting friggin ad spots on YouTube, but there's 1000 products you as an as an influencer can build on top of your audience or sell to your audience, boom. It really changes the whole landscape for CPG and services. And not to bring everything back to Mr Beast, but a large number of his videos, he told us. He lost money on, so the videos at some point started losing him money. And it was an investment in that brand and you know it's it's clearly going to pay off now. I I saw Alexis Ohanian from. You know, Reddit fame and capitalist 776 is fun. He went to go see the burger place and he's like, what? Like there were at that point in time, 10,000 people online. Mr Bees had to tell people, please do not show up. Which of course then Dwight asked. People show up. Anybody have plugs or anything that they want to get off their chest sacks? Anything else and hug it out with you? OK, we gotta plug. I do. There is a. An epidemic right now of the overprescription. Of amphetamines to children who are diagnosed with ADHD. It is. An enormously important issue that doesn't just touch kids anymore, but now also touches adults. You've seen. A lot of really kind of bad companies that are overprescribing this stuff get shut down and get sanctioned, so I just wanted to let anybody who's listening know. And this is me talking to my book, so take this with a grain of salt. But there's a company that I'm involved in that has a video game that has been approved by the FDA. To be a useful treatment for kids who have been diagnosed with ADHD. So if you have an 8 to 11 year old you can go and talk to your pediatrician to find out about the solution. It's called Achille and it will allow you to prescribe to them the video game that they play 30 minutes a day. Just want to make sure people hear the name. It's Achille AKILI. So if you would do a Google search for Achille AKILI Interactive, go talk to your pediatrician if you are. Make a good child that's dealing with this. You go and read the label. Have the doctor decide. OK, so I'm not telling you to go do this, but I'm asking you. But the idea is that there are drugs that affect your brain and now we are increasingly able to design software that exquisitely targets certain aspects of your brain and are able to train them. And this is really the first example of such a thing that the FDA who has reviewed all kinds of. Clinical data has decided to approve and so it's launching in. The next few weeks we've already written prescriptions to kids in every single state of the United States and so to the extent that you're deciding what to do or you have a child or you have somebody in your family that is of age 8 to 11 years old that's dealing with this, I would just encourage you to learn about it. That is a plug. And you know all the disclaimer, it's a great plug. I think we should at the end just talk about something we're working on, and this is an incredible one, the number of kids on these, you know, ADHD drugs, attention drugs, depression. Anxiety, drugs, millions. It is out of control. There is and I listen, I don't want to tell parents how to parent, but I will say this is becoming a dependency. And the number of drugs, I don't know if you saw that New York Times where they put this one girl on 10 drugs. They're prescribing multiple drugs and we don't know exactly what the long term effects of children using these are. And there are other solutions. I'm not judging any parent. I'm not judging any teachers who's advising this. But this country and a society needs to really look deeply at this issue and say should children, because we didn't go on these drugs when we were kids. They didn't exist. And they haven't existed for all of humanity. And we need to think, what kind of experiment are we running on? Ten, 2030% of kids in some schools? You're you're stating something so incredibly important. You know, when you have kids that are preteens and teenagers, their Physiology is changing dramatically and all of a sudden when you introduce a secondary chemical compound into all of that? You're exactly right. We don't really know what the outcomes are. And right now I think a lot of people are worried that the over prescription of drugs in this kind of condition is going to create a next version of an opioid pandemic or epidemic. And I think like that's the thing, that's exactly the analogy right now. This statistic is crazy. This is in the New York Times Express Scripts, a mail order pharmacy, recently reported that prescriptions of antidepressants for teenagers rose 38% from 2015 to 29. We are prescribing these at an alarming rate. I have many parents at my circle. Who have kids who had what I would consider modest behavioral issues or modest attention issues. And they talked to me about this, and they felt, in multiple cases, like they were being bullied or pressured by teachers to put their kids on behavioral drugs because their kids were behaving. 10% as badly as I did in middle school or high school, this is being used. I believe this is my personal belief. I know there are some kids who need these drugs, or I assume that there are, but I think this is being used to keep kids in their seats and to make it easier for parents to have to deal with what are normally the hardships of teenager, you know, a teenagers and just be very careful parents about the extent to which, you know, you might be being pressured perhaps. Parents have told me they felt bullied into giving their kids these drugs. It really is infuriating to me and I think it's really great that you people should look into it. Exercise, talking to your kids. These things also work. Guidance counselor. We had a guidance counselor at. At our school tell me that they thought that one of my children should just get put on these drugs. And I was like. It was the most random statement, and all I could get from her was that she just didn't want to deal with the fact that every now and then this kid would just, you know, be exuberant. Do you want to kill their spirit? I had the same conversation. I don't want to get into it too much. But you know, I think that these teachers now, and I'm not saying it's all teachers. They are like, it's it's just easier to manage kids who are on focused energy drugs. And then there are some parents who want their kids to do really good on standardized testing. I would have done better on standardized testing if I was on Adderall or whatever these intention drugs are, we everybody would score 10% better. But what does it do to the quality of your life long term? That's the question we need to ask about this stuff, and we don't have answers for it. I don't want to be Tom Cruise on this podcast, but there are other ways to keep, you know, kids healthy and to deal with these issues. And and I think this things are to say they're overprescribed. It's going to be a huge understatement, going to look at this like the opioid crisis. I guarantee it. I think that's exactly if you. You start dopesick right. And people thought they were doing the right thing. Oh, these people have pain. This drug manages pain. And then they found out like, Oh yeah, you know what this drug also makes? You could make you an addict and could ruin your life. A great job on that investment. And I and I hope it works. Thank you, sax. Anything else? Any companies in your portfolio want to give a shout out to, we might as well get something out of this ******* pot since we're leaving seven and a half $1,000,000 on the ******* table. And you guys won't even let me run all in summit too, so I can get 1/2 Millie. I remember anything that plug right now, but no company you invested in you need a plug for. How about you? Super got. Can we get some in here? These bars taste great. Friedberg. I love this. Thank you. Thank you. I literally just ordered another pack of them. I'm glad. Thank you. Great price, super got. Do you have, by the way? This is where I'm having. Yeah., but I'm, this is actually one of my list DTC companies where I'm having a lot of these conversations about how do you actually avoid just buying ads on Facebook and Google and how do you actually build an audience, right. How do you ultimately convert your customers by creating content. And so this was originally unique, right. And then you changed the. Yeah, yeah, based on the science around. Around resistance starts and how it changes the gut Biome and so but this is general I'm I'm on the board of a couple of DTC companies and it is universally the conversation right now because in the last year the cost of DC Direct to consumer marketing on Facebook and Google brutal double tripled and a lot of the unit economics are falling apart on DC businesses because of it. You know costs a lot more to acquire the customer than you make from them and so everyone scrambling to figure out, OK, how do I acquire customers and that's where this content creation strategy is becoming a critical linchpin. For most consumer businesses now, it's a really important part of. I think a couple of us are investors in asleep and they were like, please let us advertise on all. And I was like, sorry, no answer, but I'll shout you out here 8 sleep. It's great product. I have a plug, but I want to save it. So what ******* drop a plug for? No, no, the product hasn't launched yet. Give me like a month. Alright, you. And if anybody wants to be a venture investor, to come to one of my webinars and see my list since we all start allowing all of these plugs I thought we had. It was just. Yeah, it was a setup. I just wanted to do a roundup of plug so I could get mine in. So I was being generous. Worked plan worked. I got you on the hook for yours. What was your what was your plug? What were you doing your your venture fund. I'm doing one for well for plugging stuff. Subscribe plug unplug the call and kind of stuck on if you wanna call in app. We're all in everybody is calling up. Let's you know we should do a call in we should all do like an after hours where we take questions from the audience. That would be great. I would do that. Yeah, I would do that. Can I get a point? All right, let's go. Everybody. This has been all in episode 95. Wait, wait. Create more balance, Jake. Out. That wasn't that. That was another deal you turned down, just like the Ukraine deal. This is a theme here is that you turned down deals you later regret. Then nine months later you have nine months later. You was right. You should have taken the deal. I should take the deal. How hard chamath is crashing right now. Look at him. Look at what time is it there? It's like 11:30, right? Midnight, it's 11:30, it's 11:30. I'm losing my voice. I lost my voice. Send us an invite for AMA, for the four of us. On calling, calling everybody download. Calling. OK, yeah, just remember all the props maybe. Yeah. Live AMA. Live AMA. Dashboard. I'll show up. Maybe I'll show up for sacks 1 to show off. Yeah, I'll, I'll show up. I'll be happy to do it. I'm back in the United States tomorrow. All right, well, we'll play poker in 14 hours. In two hours after you get, you're gonna ask everybody to come meet you in the airport. We'll pick you up from the airport. We pick up the airport, we'll play Chinese poker in the back of the car. Alright? Everybody's episode. Nothing you need a longer than we thought it would be such a Lawson. Chamath. You need something little honey? I I need a lozenge. I have some tea over there. I love you guys. Have your besties see you soon. Let your winners ride Rain Man David Sassoon. We open sources to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it. I'm going. Why? Besties are. My dog taking notice your driveway. Ohh man. We should all just get a room and just have one big huge **** because they're all just useless. It's like this, like sexual tension that they just need to release some out there. The beat, beat. See what we need to get merchants on?