Industry veterans, degenerate gamblers & besties Chamath Palihapitiya, Jason Calacanis, David Sacks & David Friedberg cover all things economic, tech, political, social & poker.
Sat, 16 Apr 2022 06:08
1:03 Friedberg breaks down the global food crisis and predicts China's grand plan
9:27 Inflation: 8.5% CPI in March, potential causes, what the rest of 2022 might look like
18:22 Understanding French election results so far
23:08 All-In Summit update and preview
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Alright, what? Ohh, we're doing this again. Alright, listen, it's a 2 parter. You listen to the first part now. This is the second part, episode 76.5 if you will. This is our first ever 2 parter, part two of our two parter. You already listened to part one of episode 76. That's Elon and Twitter. Lots of details there. And now we're going to cover some more topics, including the global food crisis, China's plan to stockpile a bunch of food, geopolitics all around the horn, French election, Germany, etcetera. And then we'll go into details about a little bit of the drama and details, pageantry, parties, poker, all the good stuff of the all in summit coming soon. OK, enjoy the show, everybody. I'll see you on Monday. Let your winners ride. Rain Man, David. We open sources to the fans and they've just gone crazy. Queen. There's still a war raging, but I wanted to get an update from Freiburg on the food crisis, which he predicted very early for further fertilizer prices are still climbing like crazy. There's been some food riding in China, which I think is a separate issue. He'll educate us in a minute. Sri Lanka. So what is your theory of what we're going to do from here, friedburg? Because I think we're all waiting for this shoe to drop and I think you predicted this is something that we would experience into the fall and into next year, so. When are we gonna actually see these food riots occurring and then as China's food riots have anything to do with this or does that have to do with they. Yeah, I think food, I would put the Chinese food riots as kind of a separate localized supply chain problem related to the lockdowns. Got it. But we're definitely, you know, I think I mentioned last week the USDA planting report showing in the US How acreage is being reduced on corn and. And and we're seeing this around the world where acres are coming out of production or less fertilizers being used, which means less foods being made. So everything that we predicted, I mean this is a slow train, a Titanic into the iceberg that we're watching right now and it's going to continue for 9 to 18 months. So, you know, one of the questions that people are now asking, which I said, you know, would become a really critical next step in this crisis, is how are we going to bridge the gap in calories? Where is the food going to come from? And how are we gonna feed nations that are almost entirely dependent on imports that are running out of food or are out of food? So I've mentioned this in the past, the whole world runs on a 90 day food supply, which means roughly 25% of the world's calories are in storage right now. But that's not the case uniformally. So some countries like Tunisia and Somalia, Ethiopia have close to 0 calories in storage. Some countries like the United States are roughly, you know, 3040% of our. You know, annual consume calories are sitting in storage. China is a complete outlier. For years, China has been stockpiling food. And at this point, China has 150% of their annual consumption of food in storage. So they have supplies that if all food production and import stopped in China, they would be able to feed their population for 1 1/2 years. That's an incredible supply of food. So if you look around the world to places like Sri Lanka and places like Somalia that are struggling. To figure out how are we going to bridge this gap on calories that's about to hit us Egypt about four months of food, by the way, and Egypt is dwindling. They cannot get the food out of the Black Sea. So China is going to be one of the very few potential solutions for bridging the calorie gap over the next year. And I have a strong prediction and a strong belief that because of that, China will use it to maximum leverage. And we will see over the next year an incredible amount of leverage and power being accumulated by China because of transactions that they're going to start to enter into to bridge the calorie gap around the world. So in the Horn of Africa, for example. There has been this continuous presence of China trying to give themselves a military base, trying to take a some influence over local media. And there's been this kind of push and pull with the, you know, certain populations around whether or not we should kind of embrace China locally. And I think that, for example, the the food crisis that we're seeing emerge in Ethiopia, Somalia, Retrea, Jabuti is going to be resolved by China and China is going to end up gaining influence, gaining military presence. And establishing a more permanent foothold in the Horn of Africa because of the position that they're in of strength with all these calories and the and the need in these regions. And that's not just there, Sri Lanka. Other parts of Southeast Asia. Even Western Africa, Northern Africa, China is going to show up and they're the only country that can show up, the UN, the World Food Programme, they're going to do everything they can to shuffle calories around, change food supplies. But I do think that one of the things that everyone's going to be watching and it's it's a slow roll, this isn't going to be some one big deal and everyone wakes up over the next year while the US is, you know, trying to do everything we can to maximally impose sanctions on Russia. China is slowly turning the crank around the world on the influence that they are going to gain. Because of this food crisis and the absolute, uh, you know, surplus that they have locally and the ability to export that surplus to support needs around the world. And it's not going to be free. It's not going to be cheap. So I thought it was worth highlighting what we're seeing. And I shared a couple of articles with you guys and with Nick, articles that no one is paying attention to. And this isn't some conspiratorial, Oh my God, there's some dangerous thing happening. I'm just pointing out one of the things that's happening is we talk about, you know, the great change in power, the shift in power globally. That's happening. It is happening in a very significant way this year given the surplus that China has, the dirt that many countries have and the inability for the US to to really adequately respond to the food crisis that that's emerging. And so I thought it was worth bringing to everyone's attention. There's a lot of little articles that that support this point. I shared them with you guys. You guys can put them in the show notes and and put them up on YouTube and whatever. But I think this is going to become a macro trend that we're going to wake up to in six to nine months and be like, whoa, what the heck happened, you know? How, how did China get so much leverage around the world and and it's it's starting now. That's what happens with every war, you know, we all, we go in hot, you know, we it's, you know, raw, raw, we're all gung ho. And then at some point in time we're like, wait a second, why do we do that, you know? And, you know, and look, there's no shortage of of neocons and liberal interventionists. We're all saying this war is wonderful for us because it's reunited the American alliance and the Western Alliance and that this has been this war is a good thing for us. Let's keep it going. Let's bleed Russia, let's topple Putin, let's stabilize the regime. They they're in favor of protracted conflict that I've been, you know, warning against. And what Freeberg is saying is the longer this conflict goes on, the more of these disastrous scenarios are going to materialize. What are you? What is your take on how crippled Putin is right now, David? Just objectively? And again, you're not a fan of Putin. I know the ship like, I mean, this does not look good for him. It feels like he can't and he's losing all his tanks. And this seems like a crazy, I don't know, anything you don't know in terms of, you know, I'm just a consumer of information. But I tend to think that we are overly optimistic in the West. And look, the war has clearly gone very bad for Putin, but this idea that everything that magically we're going to get regime change in Moscow, we're going to get Gorbachev 2.0. That, that is, that is an objective worth protracting this war for. I tend to think it's going to be a mistake. I mean that that's now. Doesn't mean I support Russia's invasion. I've said it's illegal, it's a crime, it's a violation of international law. It's a humanitarian disaster. But what I've supported is a is a negotiated peace, a settlement that we try to get as quickly as possible. That is clearly not the administration's position on this. They want to keep this thing going. And you know, this idea that that that a long war is good for America's alliances. I would disagree with that, because you're already seeing all over the world. Now people are starting to object to American policy. You saw it. With India and India is the world's largest democracy, they should be on our side. They definitely should not be on China's side because they have a huge latent tension. But China and India are both de facto on Russia side on this. Africa and large parts of Latin America, India would like to have oil. And they would like to meet. They are. They would like to maintain their relationship with Russia. And they did not support the denunciation of Russia. They would like to see this conflict, and large parts of Africa would like to see it end. Latin America, basically all the victims. If there's a famine in the world in six months, like Freeburg is saying, they are all very worried about this. All of them have expressed concern with the American policy, which seems to be protract this war. OK and Freeberg, you have to go do your talk at Berkeley. Congratulations, and we'll see you next time. Thanks for the contribution. Chemaf any thoughts on the CPI? We we set a record that seemed to have gotten lost in the the haze of Twitter. I learned something really interesting that I just wanted to share with you guys. So there was a big CPI print obviously, but there was a report of probably not many people read it. But it was about home equity, and the take away was that since 2020, Americans have taken two 430. I think the exact number is 420, seven, $427 billion of home equity out of their homes and effectively spent it. So what it what it started to make me think about was, if you look at all of that home equity plus the stimulus checks, plus the unemployment insurance checks, that starts to explain, I think, why the labor markets are so tight and why people haven't gone back to work. They are just no motivation because there's just so much money sloshing around for them to basically not have to be forced to do any of this stuff that they don't want to anymore. And I think the the thing to keep in mind is like that's also what's gone into the stock market. It's also what's driven up the price of used cars, new cars, all of this stuff. I just think that kind of like starts to paint a picture of CPI that's really important, which is that it's probably a little bit more transitory. Then we may actually think, because when you exhaust all of that extra money, that's dry powder, yeah. There's not as much inflation to be had. And I think most people are now forecasting that inflation is really going to taper off. And the big warning sign that everybody is sort of, you know, marching towards is, you know, too many excessive rate hikes between now and the end of the year could actually push us into a real recession. And we were talking about that before, but the probability is now sort of like one in three. Whereas before, I think, you know, David and I sounded a little bit crazy when we were talking about it. So I just wanted to put that out there as something I learned this week that I thought was really important. The labor participation rate peaked at 6768%. But half a trillion dollars with 61, I mean, half a trillion dollars of actual spending in the economy, that's a ton of money to be absorbed, right? If people have a couple of 100 grand in their bank account who own homes or whatever, there's no need to go back to a job. And if you don't feel safe because you maybe still have some COVID fears you don't want to commute, or you just out of the rhythm for two years and you're like, I'm kind of enjoying skiing or whatever you're doing. Whatever your jam is, maybe there's no, there's no rush to get back. You'll wait until you. You'll wait until you exhaust all of that money. This is A and then we're not, as we talked about, we're not letting people into the country at the same time. So you still have 10 million job openings. That flips. That would be economic activity that would be helpful in fighting, fighting against. A recession, correct. I mean I I I think that that we're probably going to have a a quarter or two contraction. It it it it's probably gonna happen. It's sort of at the late end of this year, beginning of next year. Just the real question is how, how high are rates between now and then? And again, I think the setup isn't very good, which is that the. Investors in the stock market are playing chicken with the Fed and you know they're just at the beginning of a rate cycle and they haven't been able to impact any real forms of liquidity in the equity market. And so I think they're going to, they're going to attack that and the only blunt force instrument they have is rates. And so, you know, you could see rates at three 3 1/2% and that's going to impact a lot of stuff. And the problem is that, you know, it's going to be after the economy has slowed down. Because it's going to be after a lot of these. You know, fake savings, if you will, have been depleted. Yeah, well, we're seeing some pressure come off as well. The car shortage is kind of ending. And wages have raised so that it seems like they're in in this. You know, confluence of events, certain things are starting to work themselves out. Are you? Hey, can I tell you something else? I was. I was in Washington this week. The number of people that listen to our pod, it is incredible. Just saying. Yeah. How many incredible people in Washington care about our views on politics? It's incredible that I've heard that feedback too. Yeah. It's really, really, really special. We've we've stumbled into something pretty cool. And the fact that it's like must it's it's it's it's must listening. It's must listen. That's like a Sunday weekly show. You just get a different perspective from the tech sector and capital allocators that maybe you don't get on us, you know, Meet the Press or something. Yeah. But just to follow up on that inflation point, the economic point, Jason, if I can, so please. So look, the main reason inflation is going to go down in the second-half of this year is because inflation is measured on a year over year basis. And you remember about a year ago is when inflation started. But you know, around this time last year inflation is only 2 1/2%. Then it reached 5% by the summer, then by the end of the year it was almost 8%. So as we sort of lap last year's inflation rate, we come up against, you know, you're copying against a 7.8% number last year. So I don't think inflation's going to get any better or probably looking at roughly at 12. Percent, you know, official two year inflation number. So in other words, since Biden took over as president, you're looking at probably 12 to 13% of total inflation as measured by CPI. And that is why even though the headline number will come down later this year, I don't think the American people are going to feel any better about the situation. You can almost predict that Jen Saki or whoever replaces her at the podium at the White House briefing room, they're going to be touting these lower inflation numbers at the end of the year, but it doesn't mean price levels will have. Increase prices will still be very high. When people go to the grocery store, they buy meat or bread or what have you. It's going to be very expensive and I don't think people are to be feeling better off and there's going to be a lot of negativity going into the November election for this administration. And also I think it's going to impact consumption. I mean if you're going to a gas station and you I mean I drove the minivan to LA and it's the only electric, it's only non electric car we have. We happen to drive because we had a number of people that was bigger than the X and. It was like shocking to buy $7.00 gasoline and obviously I can withstand, you know, filling up, but. I could see people saying, you know what? Maybe I'm not gonna make that incremental trip or, you know, you start looking at some of the prices. Yeah. You know, for taking a trip or flights, I don't know if you've looked at flights or hotels, like things are starting to creep up that it's like super noticeable and that's got to affect consumption. And then that what would be, what would be part of those -, 2 quarters, right, chamath. I mean, the role of people stopping, consuming and just saying, you know what? Yeah, it's too expensive right now. Just I'll stay at home and watch Netflix. Rocket, you know, I'll cook pasta tonight. You you see that happening already? Yeah. People are starting to balance the balance sheet. Just looking at the balance sheet and say, you know, what's the way I can, you know, cut some expensive items off the, you know, ride a bike. They're going to take less travel because, you know, the cost of airline tickets have gone up because the cost of the jet fuel has gone up it all, it all ripples through the economy. But I think The thing is that when. When the Fed gets involved though, they get involved in you know in a brute force way. Let me make a prediction. Right now if we're we're we're definitely heading into an economic slowdown. I don't know if it will meet the technical definition of recession, but very high negative quarters of growth, yes, technically. So I, you know, very high chance I think of recession. Like Chammas said, towards the end of the year if this war is still going on and we get in a recession, look out below, I think this President will be in Jimmy Carter territory. He began the year at 38%. That was in reasonably good conditions of peacetime. If you know, and I tweeted at the beginning of the year in January, I said that, you know, this is, you know, you're at 38%. That's with peace and prosperity, will look out below if we get recession and war, that's what it's looking like right now. So, you know, I think this is things are looking pretty, pretty dire, which is why I keep saying it, you know, the policy of this administration should be to try and find a settlement to the situation in Ukraine, to this war. I know that we didn't start it. Putin started it. Let's be clear. But if there's an off ramp here. We should be seizing it because we got real problems back home in America, and the administration should be focused on our economy and our problems. Europe is going to be the Canary in the coal mine on all of this because I think they feel this pretty severely and I think there's a lot of exhaustion amongst European governments and leaders when you start to listen to this rhetoric. To kind of you know find a way to end end what's going on over there because the. They're going to see. A pretty meaningful recession, I think. Yeah, absolutely. Much more, much more so than we will. Yeah. And if you look, if you look right now, what's happening in France, Marine Le Pen is surging. Unbelievable against macron. I don't know if she's gonna pull off the upset, but one of the major pillar, well, actually, here's what she's running on. She is saying that she has been focused on inflation and cost of living. And she says Macron has been distracted by being America's basically lapdock puppet, whatever on Ukraine. So she's saying we need to focus on the French economy. And she's also saying that we as France should set our own foreign policy and not be so deferential to the US she says that this protracted war in Ukraine and all this hot rhetoric coming out of the Biden administration about war crimes and destabilizing Putin and toppling him and putting him on trial at The Hague, that is not in French interests. That's what the Americans want to do, but it's not what we should be wanting to do. We need to end this war. And I'm not ready to say she's going to pull off the upset yet, but she is clearly articulating that message because she is finding purchase. With the French electorate based on that message, and you're going to hear that if this war continues for three months and six months and Europe goes into recession, you're going to start hearing politicians all over the European continent saying the same thing and questioning American leadership. And why are they are dragging this thing out the the thing that's the scariest thing about the French election. And I'm not sure how many Americans paid attention to it, but just to maybe summarize in the very quick nutshell, you actually had this really interesting dynamic of three candidates. One was what would be considered far left, Jean-Luc Melenchon, one far right Marine Le Pen, and then one that was very centrist, Emmanuel Macron. And what's crazy is both of these two were, you know, 22 plus percent of all of the votes. It was just that Le Pen and Macron were one and two and so they go into a runoff election. And, you know, Merchant was very clear. He was like, under no circumstance should any of my supporters vote for Le Pen. But it just shows you what's happening, which is like France, which is, you know, sort of coming undone under this populist fight is probably a Canary in the coal mine for how this stuff could play out in other places. And it's kind of scary and be interesting to see what happens in Germany as well. As they look at this enabling, of course they were able to hold the line. They, you know, they still have a center right government. But, you know, in Austria for a while that wasn't the case in Hungary. It's not really the. Case so there is a lot of countries, at least in the Eastern Bloc of of Europe where you've you've seen a tip in One Direction or the other. It's not unreasonable to think of that in francica tip in One Direction or the other. Fortunately in the UK or unfortunately however you look at it, it's still really a two party system for the most part I think. So I don't know, we're we're in a really precarious moment in world history, I think. Yeah. By the way, I want to talk about one thing that I talked at the end of last year. I talked about just a very random thing about you know, Visa and MasterCard and how you could short them or you know, like basically like the payment networks we're going to start to get, you know, dismantled this year. It's really interesting to see. I don't know if you guys have been really paying attention to all the activity that's been happening in payments over like the last. Literally 90 days I think has been really incredible up into, you know, just today, you know, Visa and MasterCard I think are doing the single dumbest thing they could do by being a duopoly which is raising prices, especially into an inflationary moment, which just lacks complete knowledge and sensitivity of the moment. So dampen economic activity but also creates the incentives for disruption. Sure, right. Because then the gap between you and your next killer is competitor becomes more obvious and again in capitalism. You compete away these advantages and I just think that the setup is becoming more and more obvious for this shift in payments. I just think it's quite interesting. So **** Durbin actually today basically is going to create a big, you know, hubbub in the Senate around these increasing merchant fees which will eventually spill over to consumers. There is some talk that you know, I, I what is it called zeli? Is that how you pronounce it? Zelly, the, the, the, the, the inner bank payment system? People were talking about them converting that to becoming a more substantive payment system. And then this week? I was able to see a little bit under the hood of, you know, Solana pay. And that's really exciting. So it's all coming. I think like it's like a swarm of activity to dismantle these payments businesses. I just wanted to just give the 90 day update from our from our discussion in January. All right everybody, we will see you May 15th, 16th and 17th in Miami for the first all in summit now sold out, no more tickets available. There's a wait list, but we're not going to be able to get to anybody on it. Sorry, you can't sign up and we'll make sure you know about next year. If there is a next year, this might be a one and done kind of situation. Three amazing parties Sunday night is a poker tournament for charity. The top it's going to be a sit and go format. If you win your sit and go, you go into a sit and go. Bake Off. And then you get to sit at the final table with the four besties. The winners are going to get to make a donation to the charity of their choice, paid for by the besties. And Sunday night's party will be the Good Fellas party. Monday is going to be the Havana White Party. Bring your linen sacks. I know you got a whole closet full down there. And then Tuesday nights are Miami vice party. Here are the mockups of the invite deal. This is the first time I'm seeing it. Same time. A little reveal. There's a lot of work. The copy I didn't write. Where? Workshopping it. It's just we we. Got a little, what do they call that? Like a mood board. It's a little bit of a mood board. Here's your what? Your beaks party for Sunday night. It's going to be a good fellas theme. Should be a lot of fun. We got it. Looks like Goodfellas. It looks like Goodfellas. We're going to keep working on it wet. Your beak is probably not be the name of your party but that Sunday night. And then Next up is our Havana White Party despite all the **** you take. You do such a good job with this ****. I got it. And then we're going to have this one piece of social club. I apologize, but I think. This is complete *** ****. This one, the first one supposed to be Buena Vista Social Club. You're just a heathen. You never saw that. The first one is so good. This is horrendous, but I don't even know what is this picture of, whether it's it's a it's a theme on the Buena Vista Social Club. It's a it's not the right image, but we're workshopping it, like I said. But that's going to be a Havana White Party. It was gonna wear linens on Monday night, and it's gonna be at a beautiful space name in that. Like I said, this is just a designer coming up with ideas. And then, of course, we're going to have our Miami vice. We're going to rent a couple of that are like. Avengers and so that we are and so that should be our at 4:20 Bitcoin St your best 80s dress from Miami Venture. So it's going to be three parties that's hot. I think it's going to be a 3 great parties you have to but everybody's going to have to get 3 great outfits so linens are easy Monday night Jake out your your thighs look really big in this field right? Well this is fat Jay Cal. This is not 167 jakal. This is 198 jakal on your left leg. You can't tell where your. Bottom part of the leg stops where you said I'm sitting in a stool in that picture they got, but yeah. But it's like, you have no need. It's just like one big Shank. Like, yeah, you know what? It's when you're fat and you got fat suits. You know, everything's. Listen, I'm looking at pictures of myself. Why didn't you guys hate me more? That's the question I have. You guys should have been just on you. You you really look incredible. And then yesterday, when I saw you, I was like, holy **** this guy looks really fantastic. Look, there's no need there. It's just there's no need. It's like, no snake. It's like big Shank. You know what? When you're a fat guy, you get fat suits. You just try to, you know? And now I'm having to rebuy. Look at that fat face. The hair. Zoom out. Oh my God. Zoom out. Zoom out. Looked terrible. Flat hair now. Sacks, looking nice. Well, you look good. I look fat. You look good. Let's go with this one. Let's go with this. You look great. You're gonna redo mine. I want all the photos done of Vin Jackal for the inspiration. Don't. No double chin. What are you doing? You work for me? Don't know. We need we need to tell me which. Where's my neck? No, I got a neck again. I found my neck. Everybody. They have it, folks. So I'm sorry if he did not get into the all and summit, but we've got a great lineup of speakers. And events planned, no press because, well, we have the same distribution, but we will the press will be able to see all the talks. So all the talks will come out post event on the all in feed. So for the 10 days after the all in feed, you're going to get a show every day. And who are our confirmed speakers at this point? Oh my Lord, so many good ones. Hold on. Let me pull it up here. Keith raboy. Palmer Luckey is coming, huh? Good. So that's confirmed. That's awesome. Yeah, we got that confirmed. He's a big fan of Saxy poo. The new website's up, by the way, and it looks beautiful. Wow, look at this. So we have Ryan Peterson, Nate Silver, Brad Gerstner, Claire Vicol, who is amazing. Mar Hirshon Palmer luckey. Keith raboy. Jolanta got Antonio to wanna speak. Antonio is now coming out of his shell. Antonio Garcia Martinez. I mean, these are Adina you should get. We should get some foreign policy folks, too. I mean, well, if you guys wanted to do any ******* work, you could help me out here. I thought this was just a grift you were doing. I didn't know it was serious now. I mean, I may have to help. Yeah. No, you're gonna be proud of this. Well, here's the thing that I'm gonna be most proud of is the format. I have come up with a new concept of a format. I came up with a theme question that people can choose to answer or not, but the problem I want to solve and it could be the problem I most want to solve. It could be the problem I want to see solved. The problem I'm thinking about. People will go up in most cases and give a 10 to 20 minute call it a Ted style talk, a solo dolo talk where they kind of talk about what they're working on in their lives. Then they come and sit. In a chair with two besties on either side and then the four of us engage them in a conversation while we're talking, we're going to have maybe 5 slides that producers will put together of data points, etcetera. So we all get educated, we pull up the slide and then there'll be 600 people in the auditorium. 100 people in the simulcast room, we will take one question from the audience or two questions if we have time with each segment. And so you're going to get a lot of bestie action, but stimulated by bestie guestie positions. And I think this is really what folks want. Now if somebody doesn't want to give one, let's say Palmer just wants to talk, we'll just talk with Palmer. And so that there's going to be an option. I told people you could your position paper, your position statement could be 5 minutes, it could be 20. So I want to do something on. Natural resource scarcity and national security. So Jim Letinsky, the CEO of MP materials. OK, you just, all you gotta do is e-mail me the person's e-mail address or introduce me and we'll set it. So we'll we'll we'll do something on like the supply chain of like rare earth and lithium nickel coal. And so and then here's my other idea. So I I told everybody that the problem I'd like to solve there is energy independence for America. Perfect. So then do I still need to e-mail you now? Just e-mail me. But here's the thing we're doing. I told everybody. I just told you the. Yeah, we have, Nick. Take a note here to remind you to get the e-mail address to here's what's gonna happen so you don't need me to e-mail you. I mean, we don't want to guess the e-mail if you have it and you know them. I mean, I know you want to do the least amount of work, but I need to get a producers fee here. I don't know, you guys got to outvote freeberg. Putting that aside, I'm meeting my beak. I'm fine with that, too. Thank you. Then three, because that's how all in media is working. Now it's just going to vote. Well, why don't you sign the LLC agreement? Did anybody sign yet? I was going to review it to see somebody can poison pill freeberg put in there, because I'm not. Writing this **** till I have two lawyers. Look at all Freeberg's got a poison pill in there. I don't know about you guys, but I just signed any random DocuSign that ends up in my box. I just assume, you know, I wanna. It's good to speak, you know. Here we go at the conference in the last 30 days. Look. Yeah, so I'd like to get, I'd like to get Professor John Mearsheimer to speak. He's a that'd be great. Yeah, he's a professor at the University of Chicago. He's been there 40 years. He's the leading. He's a leading theorist, you could say, of the school of thought called realism in foreign policy. And he has a track record of being right about all of America's foreign policy. Just the guy who shared the video with, right. Yeah. So he's the guy who talked about the duopoly. What do they call that? The mono dual Tri? Nucleosis, multipolar, unipolar. When he has a critique, he has a critique of liberal interventionism, which has been the dominant fantastic foreign policy since the end of the Cold War. It's what got us into Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya. He predicted all those things to be fiascos. He also predicted that our policy of constructive engagement towards China would ultimately backfire and be a disaster. And he has a very contrarian critique right now of our policy in Ukraine that's gone viral. On Twitter and it's gotten like 10 million plus views. He would be an incredible person to to come speak. Well, here's what's happened. While we invite people, you know, we we invite some people. They don't know the show. We knew other people and like, Oh my God, I love the show on there. What's gonna be interesting is the next 30 days we're going to talk to each person about what they, what topic they really want to, you know, double click on and then we get a pair of people. So you might have Keith Raboy and Antonio, you know, you might have Tim Urban and Joe Lonsdale or whatever. And so hopefully we can find a little dynamic. Maybe people don't agree, maybe they have, you know, opposite positions and then we're going to then have this great Socratic dialogue with everybody. And I think it's going to be a very fast pace type thing. And then hopefully the speakers sit in the VIP area and then I'm going to have a runner there with a microphone or I might do it myself. So you know, I might have Keith Raboy on in the morning, in the afternoon he might want to chime in on Joe Lonsdale talk I run up to him with a microphone, etcetera. So we got probably we're going to do 2 hours in the morning. Three hours in the afternoon. So it's 11:50, so you can sleep in or come for coffee. If we stay late playing poker every night, it's going to be a gentle wake up. 12 to two is a nice lunch. Healthy. Three to five. Nice. Come. I'm sorry. Two to five. Three hours of nice content. Then you get a little break. You go to the parties. At the end of the parties, you never know. A poker table or two might be pulled out and we play a little cash game. Who knows? Anything's possible. So poker could be all three nights. I don't know. You know, this depends on the degeneracy level, but I think it's going to be a fun time. I'm just asking. Nobody go ham on Sunday or Monday night, please. Tuesday night, you want to have a little extracurricular? You want to go a little late? Davey chamath. That's fine. But Rob and I want everybody in bed by midnight Sunday night and Monday night. No crazy. Alright, So what are the dates this thing in? OK, it's Sunday. Monday, Tuesday, Sunday, Monday of what? Of what? May 15, 1617. OK. Oh my God. Oh my God. Oh my God. What a **** show. It doesn't matter for speakers out there in a month it is. Yes. That's why I'm busting my *** on this. OK, so Jake Allman introduced you to letinsky so we can slot. And if anybody we could use a couple more female speakers, people of color. I'm really trying to keep it diverse and have a lot of range of speakers. A lot of. David Stan said yes early, you got the Joe Lansdale should get Keith Rabois they all like want to support? David's team. I could use a couple of people maybe with the opposing viewpoint. So we're trying to keep it a little bit. I Bari Weiss may come. We're trying to work on barrel. That's good. Yeah. We should go share Swisher. Can't make it. I wanted to have Barry and Kara Swisher. It doesn't seem like that oil and vinegar is gonna happen. Can we can we get Glenn Greenwald but that. Right, right, right. You're getting you're going further further to the right. I would like to have is somebody a matter with Barbie? Matt Taibbi, that's another kind of right guy I would like to have somebody in your definitions are all off. Jason. These definitions don't mean anything anymore, OK? They're independent critical thinkers. There, there, there, there. They originally came from the left. They're not like huge fans of unbridled capitalism, but there are more on the populist side. Is this populist for something to anybody, sacks? I would appreciate it, particularly Peter Thiel, who's the you're the one person who could deliver it, since you guys are besties. Bring us Peter Thiel. The guy spoke at a *** ****. Alright, give me a give me a list. I'll invite Glenn. I'll invite Taibi. I'll invite Peter. Oh great. Now we just have the audience. Should have a protest outside. I am. These are the most interesting people. Exact. Peter Thiel is the most interesting for sure. I like Mike Taibbi. Actually, I'll give you that. Here's the problem. Here's the problem. Here's the problem with getting the people on the other side. Is that the people on the other side again, it's not right versus left anymore. It's sort of populist versus elitist. And you already know what all the elitists are going to say. And they're too afraid to be on stage with people on the other side. But I mean, I think that you're associated with Peter Thiel is a little bit charge and triggering for certain people. That's her. Yeah, exactly. That's why they don't believe that. They don't. I mean, they people are like, how could you be friends with David? I'm like because we love each other. We're friends. Like we're we're besties. And they're like, well, but you disagree with topics. It's it's contamination by association. But that's basically that's, I mean, David, that's what they're trying to do to me right now. I'm getting the back channel. How could you do this with David Sacks? And I'm like, because he's my best friend. That's why our pot is popular is we have four people who are friends who sometimes disagree with each other. The reason you can't create the show anywhere else, right? Still, I'm not giving up my friendship with Dave. The reason you can't create the show anywhere else is because those people think they get contaminated if they even have a conversation with somebody the other side of things. But you don't get that on your side, correct? Peter Thiel is not coming to you and saying, because we're intellectually, we're intellectually confident, we don't believe in shutting down the debate, right? We believe in free speech. The other side, they're authoritarian because they can't defend anything. They just cancel people. They've lost the art of persuasion. I think they've given up. Their position would be they've given up trying to reach you. You just don't get it. They've given up trying to reach you. And I'm like, don't give up, put up a fight. If you disagree with Saxist position reaching me challenge, it's not about reaching me. It's about reaching all of them. Yes, all the people out there watching the debate. They don't want to engage the. Because they can't win the debate, because they know how to prescribe this debate. All they have to do is you in this debate weekly. Look what I did. You cancel people? Yes. They're so used to you every week. Sax and I own you half the time. OK, if he's good. Thanks. So January 6th, we're going to release the January 6 tips excursion. 36 You're like MSNBC. That's all you got. Let your winners ride Rain Man David Sassoon. We open sources to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it. Besties? My dog taking out your driveway? Ohh man. We should all just get a room and just have one big huge order because they're all useless. It's like this, like sexual tension that they just need to release stuff out there. Beat, beat. See what we need to get merchants? Please.