All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Industry veterans, degenerate gamblers & besties Chamath Palihapitiya, Jason Calacanis, David Sacks & David Friedberg cover all things economic, tech, political, social & poker.

E124: AutoGPT's massive potential and risk, AI regulation, Bob Lee/SF update

E124: AutoGPT's massive potential and risk, AI regulation, Bob Lee/SF update

Fri, 14 Apr 2023 08:39

(0:00) Bestie intros!

(1:49) Understanding AutoGPTs

(23:57) Generative AI's rapid impact on art, images, video, and eventually Hollywood

(37:38) How to regulate AI?

(1:12:35) Bob Lee update, recent SF chaos

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Welcome to episode 124 of the All in Podcast. My understanding is there's going to be a bunch of global fan meetups for episode 125 if you go to Twitter and you search for All in fan meetups you might be able to find the link but just be clear. We're not they're not official all in There are fans that self organized which is pretty mind-blowing, but we can't vouch for any particular Organization, right? Nobody knows what's going to happen at these things. You can get robbed It could be a setup. I don't know But I reach we did anyway because there are 31 cities where you lunatics are getting together to celebrate the world's number one Business technology Podcast it is pretty crazy You know what this reminds me of is in the early 90s when rush limbaugh became a phenomenon There used to be these things called rush rooms where like restaurants and bars would literally broadcast Rush over their speakers during I don't know like what for the morning through lunch broadcast and people would go to these Rush rooms and listen together. What was it like sacks when you were about 16 17 years old at the time? What was it like when you hosted this it was a phenomenon, but I mean it's kind of crazy We've got like a phenomenon going here where people are self organizing you've said phenomenon three times instead of Phenomenon he said it's phenomenon Phenomenon why sacks in a good mooch mop what's going on? There's a specific secret tote tap that you do under the bathroom stalls when you go to a rush room You already off the rails I think you're getting confused about a different event you want to Like your winners ride Rainman David's And it said we open source it to the fans and they just go crazy I love you. Where's I? It's a lot of actual news in the world and Generative AI is taking over the dialogue and it's moving out of pace that None of us have ever seen in the technology industry. I think we'd all agree the number of companies releasing product and the compounding effect of this technology is Phenomenon I think we would all agree a product came out this week called auto G PT And people are losing their mind over it basically what this does is it lets different G PT's Talk to each other and so you can have agents working in the background and we've talked about this on previous podcasts but they could be talking to each other essentially And then completing tasks without much intervention So if let's say you had a sales team and you said to the sales team hey Look for leads that have these characteristics for our sales software put them into our database Find out if they're already in the database alert a salesperson to it compose a message based on that person's profile on LinkedIn or Twitter or wherever And then compose an email send it to them if they reply Offer them to do a demo and then put that demo on the calendar of the salesperson thus eliminating a bunch of jobs And you could run these What would essentially be cron jobs in the background Forever and they can interact with other LLMs in real time Sax I've just gave but one example here But when you see this happening give us your perspective on what this tipping point means Let me take a shot at explaining it in a slightly different way Sure, not that your explanation was wrong, but I just think that maybe explain it in terms of something more tangible Sure, so I had a friend whose developer has been playing with Auto GPT by the way, so you can see it's on GitHub It's kind of an open source project. It was sort of a hobby project. It looks like that somebody put up there It's been out for about two weeks It's already got 45,000 stars on GitHub, which is a huge number explain what GitHub is for the audience Is this a code repository and you can create you know, repose of code for open source projects That's where all the developers check in their code So you know for open source projects like this anyone can go see it and play with it It's like porn hub but for developers It would be more like amateur porn hub because you're contributing your scenes as it were your code is quick Yes continue But hey event this thing has a ton of of stars and apparently just last night I got another 10,000 stars overnight This thing is like exploding in terms of popularity, but any event what you do is you give it an assignment and What auto GPT can do that's different is it can string together prompts So if you go to chat GPT you prompt it one at a time and what the human does is you get your answer And then you think of your next prompt and then you kind of go from there and you end up in a long conversation That gets you to where you want to go So the question is what if the AI could basically prompt itself Then you've got the basis for autonomy and that's what this project is designed to do So what you'll do is when my friend did he said okay, you're an event planner AI And what I would like you to do is plan a trip for me For a wine tasting in Heelsburg this weekend And I want you to find like the best place I should go and it's got to be kid friendly not everyone's gonna drink We're gonna have kids there and I'd like to be able to have other people there And so I'd like you to plan this for me And so what auto GPT did is it broke that down into a task list and Every time I completed a task it would add a new task to the bottom of that list And so the output of this is that it searched a bunch of different Wine tasting venues it found a venue that had a botchyball and lawn area for kids it came up with a schedule It created a budget it created a checklist for an event planner It did all these things and my friend says he's actually in a book to venue this weekend and use it So we're going beyond the ability just for a human to just prompt the AI we're now The AI can take on complicated tasks and again, it can recursively update its task list based on what it learns from its own Previous prompt so what you're seeing now is the basis for a personal digital assistant. This is really where it's all headed Is that you can just tell the AI to do something for you pretty complicated and it will be able to do it It will be able to create its own tasks and get the job done And quite complicated jobs So that's why everyone's losing their shit over this free burger thoughts on Automating these tasks and having them run and add tasks to the list This does seem like a sort of seminal moment in time that this is actually working I think we've been seeing seminal moments Over the last couple of weeks and months Kind of continuously Every time we chat about stuff or every day there's new releases that are paradigm shifting and kind of reveal New applications and and perhaps concepts structurally that we didn't really Have a good grasp of before some demonstration came across chat GPT was kind of the seat of that and then All of this evolution since has really I think changed the landscape for Really how we think about our interaction with the digital world and where the digital world can go and how it can interact with the physical world It's it's just really profound One of the interesting aspects that I think I saw with some of the applications of auto GPT where these almost like Autonomous characters in in like a game simulation that could interact with each other or these autonomous characters that would speak back and forth to one another where each Instance has its own kind of predefined role and then it explores some set of discovery or application or prompt back and forth with the other agent And that the kind of recursive outcomes with this agent to agent interaction model and perhaps multi-agent interaction model Again reveals an entirely new paradigm for you know how things can be done simulation-wise You know discovery wise engagement wise where one agent you know each agent can be a different character in a room And you can almost see how a team might resolve to create a new product collaboratively by telling Each of those agents to have a different character background or different set of data or different set of experiences or different set of personality traits And the evolution of those that multi-agent system outputs, you know something that's very novel that perhaps any of the agents operating independently We're not able to kind of reveal themselves. So again like another kind of dimension of interaction With these with these models and it again like every week. It's a whole nother layer to the onion And it's super exciting and compelling and the rate of change and the pace of kind of you know new paths being Being defined here really I think makes it difficult to catch up and particularly it highlights Why it's going to be so difficult I think for regulators to come in and try and set a set of standards and a set of rules at this stage because we don't even know what we have here yet And it's it's going to be very hard to kind of put the genie back in the box Yeah, and you're also referring I think To the Stanford and Google paper that was published this week They did a research paper where they created essentially the Sims if you remember that video game put a bunch of And what you might consider NPCs non playable characters, you know the merchant or the whoever in a in a video game and they said Each of these agents should talk to each other put them in a simulation one of them decided to have a birthday party They decided to invite other people and then they have memories and so then over time They would generate responses like I can't go to your birthday party, but happy birthday and then they would follow up with each Player and seemingly emergent behaviors Came out of this sort of simulation Which of course now has everybody thinking well of course we as humans And this is simulation there are living in a simulation. We've all just been put into this Chimop is what we're experiencing right now how impressive this technology is or is it Oh wow human cognition maybe we thought was incredibly special But we can actually simulate a significant portion of what we do as humans. So we're kind of taking the shine off of Consciousness. I'm not sure it's that, but I would make two comments. I think this is a really important week because it starts to show How fast the recursion is With AI so in other technologies and in other breakthroughs The recursive iterations took years right if you think about how long did we wait for from iPhone 1 to iPhone 2 It was a year Right we'd waited two years for the App Store Everything was measured in years Maybe things when they were really really aggressive and really disruptive were measured in months Except now these incredibly innovative breakthroughs are being measured in days and weeks That's incredibly profound And I think it has some really important implications To like the three big actors in this play right so it has I think huge implications to these companies It's not clear to me how you start accompanying anymore I don't understand why You would have a 40 or 50 person company To try to get to an MVP I think you can do that with three or four people And that has huge implications then to the second actor in this play which are The investors and venture capitalists that typically fund this stuff because all of our Capital allocation models were always around writing 10 and 15 and 20 million dollar checks and 100 million dollar checks Then 500 million dollar checks into these businesses that absorbed tons of money But the reality is like you know you're looking at things Like mid-journey and others that can scale to enormous size with very little capital many of which can now be bootstrapped So it takes really really small amounts of money And so I think that's a huge implication. So for me personally, I am looking at company formation Being done in a totally different way And our capital allocation model is totally wrong size look fun for for me was $1 million Does that make sense? Nope for the next three or four years. No the right number may actually be $50 million invested over the next four years. I think the VC job is changing. I think companies start up So changing I want to remind you guys of one quick thing as a tangent I had this meeting with Andre Carpathy. I talked about this on the pod where I said I challenged him I said listen the real goal should be to go and disrupt existing businesses using these tools Cutting out all the sales and marketing Right and just delivering something and I use the example of stripe Disrupting stripe by going to market with an equivalent product with one tenth the number of employees at one tenth the cost What's incredible is that this auto GPT is the answer to that exact problem Why because now if you are a young industrialist entrepreneur If you look at any bloated organization that's building enterprise class software You can string together a bunch of agents that will auto construct everything you need To build a much much cheaper product that then you can deploy For other agents to consume so you don't even need a sales team anymore This is what I mean by this crazy recursion that's possible. Yeah So I'm really curious to see how this actually affects like all of this all of these You know it's a continuation of the product companies. I mean it's a continuation Chimoff of and then the last thing I just want to say is related to my tweet I think this is exactly the moment where we now have to have a real conversation about regulation And I think it has to happen otherwise it's going to be a shit show Let's put a pin in that for a second, but I want to get sacks as response to some of this So sacks we saw this before it used to take two or three million dollars to commercialize a web-based software product app Then it went down to 500k then 250 I don't know if you saw this story, but if you remember the hit game on your iPhone flappy birds flappy birds You know was a phenomenon it you know hundreds of millions of people played this game over some period of time Somebody made it by talking to chat GPT4 and mid-journey in an hour So the perfect example and listen, it's a game so it's something silly But I was talking to two developers this weekend and one of them was an okay developer and the other one was an actual 10x developer Who's built you know very significant companies and they were coding together last week And because of how fast chat GPT and other services were writing code for them He looked over at her and said you know you're Basically a 10x developer now my superpower is gone. So where does this lead you to believe Company formation is gonna go is this gonna be You know massively deflationary companies like Stripe are gonna have a hundred competitors in a very short period of time Or are we just gonna go down the long tail of ideas and Solve everything would software. How's this gonna play out in the in the startup space? David's axe Well, I think it's true that Developers and especially junior developers get a lot more leverage on their time And so it is gonna be easier for small teams to get to an MVP Which is something they always should have done anyway with their seed round you shouldn't have needed You know 50 Developers to build your v1 it should be you know, this the founders really So that That I think is already happening and that trend will continue. I think we're still a ways away from Stars being able to replace entire teams of people. I just you know, I think right now We're fine away. You find a ways months years decade. Well, it's in the years. I think for sure. We don't know how many years And the reason I say that it's just very hard To replace You know 100% of what any of these particular job functions do 100% of what a sales rep does 100% of what a marketing Reptiles or even what a coder does so right now. I think we're still at the phase of this Where it's a tool that gives a human leverage and I think we're still a ways away from the you know Human being completely out of the loop. I think right now. I see it mostly as a force for good As opposed to something that's creating a ton of dislocation Friedberg your thoughts if we follow the trend line You know to make that video game that you shared took probably a few hundred human years then a few dozen human years then You know with other toolkits coming out Maybe a few human months and now this person did it in one human day Using this tooling So if you think about the implication for that I mentioned this probably last year. I really do believe that at some point the whole concept of publishers and publishing maybe goes away Where you know much like we saw so much of the content on the internet today being user generated You know most of the content is made by individuals posted on youtube or twitter That's most of what we consume nowadays or Instagram or TikTok in terms of video content We could see the same In terms of software itself where you no longer need a software startup or a software company To render or generate a set of tools for a particular user But that the user may be able to define to their agent their AI agent The set of tools that they would individually like to use or to create for them to do something interesting And so the idea of buying or subscribing to software Or even buying or subscribing to a video game or to a movie or to some other form of content Starts to diminish as the leverage goes up with these tools the accessibility goes up You no longer need a computer engineering degree or computer science degree to be able to harness them or use them And individuals may be able to speak in simple and plain English That they would like a book or a movie that does that looks and feels like the following or a video game That feels like the following and so when I open up my iPhone maybe it's not a screen with dozens of video games But it's one interface and the interface says what do you feel like playing today? And then I can very clearly and succinctly state what I feel like playing and it can render that game render the code Render the engine render the graphics and everything on the fly for me and I can use that And so you know, I kind of think about this as being a bit of a leveling up That the idea that all technology again starts central and move to kind of the edge of the network over time That may be what's going on with computer programming itself now where the toolkit to actually Use computers to generate stuff for us is no longer a toolkit that's harnessed and controlled and utilized By a set of centralized publishers But it becomes distributed and used to be edge of the network by users like anyone And then the edge of the network technology can render the software for you And it really creates a profound change in the entire business landscape of Of software and the internet And I think it's you know, it's it's really like we're just starting to kind of See have our heads unravel around this notion and we're sort of trying to link it to the old paradigm Which is all the startups are going to get cheaper smaller teams But it may be that you don't even need startups for a lot of stuff anymore You don't even need teams and you don't even need companies to generate and render software to do stuff for you anymore Shemoff when we look at this it's kind of a pattern of augmentation as we've been talking about here. We're augmenting human intelligence then Replacing this replication or this automation I guess might be a nice way to say it's his augmentation then automation And then perhaps deprecation where do you sit on this it seems like sacks feels it's going to take years And a freeberg thinks hey maybe startups and content are over. What do you sit on this augmentation automation deprecation Journey we're on. I think that humans have judgment and I think it's going to take decades for agents to replace good judgment I think that's where we have some Defensible ground and I'm going to say something controversial. I don't think developers anymore have good judgment Developers get to the answer or they don't get to the answer and that's what agents have done because the 10x engineer Had better judgment than the one x engineer But by making everybody a 10x engineer you taking judgment away You're taking code paths that are now obvious and making it available to everybody It's effectively like what you did in chess An AI created a solver so everybody understood the most efficient path in every single spot to do the most EV Positive thing the most expected value positive thing Coding is very similar that way you can reduce it and view it very very reductively So there is no differentiation in code and so I think freeberg is right. So for example Let's say you're going to start a company today Why do you even care what database you use? Why do you even care Which cloud your built on to freeberg's point why do any of these things matter? They don't matter. They were decisions that used to matter When people had a job to do and you paid them for their judgment Oh, while we think gcp is better for this specific workload And we think that this database architecture is better for that specific workload and we're going to run this on AWS but that on resort And do you think an agent cares if you tell an agent find me the cheapest way to execute this thing And if it ever gets not you know cheaper to go someplace else do that for me as well and you know ETL all the data and put it in the other thing and I don't really care So you're saying it will swap out stripe for adn or it doesn't know for Amazon Web Services It's going to buy ruthless It's going to be ruthless and I think that the point of that that and that's the exact perfect word Jason AI is ruthless because it's emotionless. It was not taken to a stake dinner It was not brought to a basketball game. It was not sold into a CEO It's an agent that looked at a bunch of API endpoints Figured out how to write code to it to get done the job at hand that was passed to it within a budget Right the other thing that's important is these agents Execute within budgets. So another good example was and this is a much simpler one But a guy said I would like seven Days worth of meals Here are my constraints from a dietary perspective Here are also my budgetary constraints And then what this agent did was figured out how to go and use the instacarp plugin at the time And then these other things and execute within the budget How is that different when you're a person that raises 500,000 dollars and says I need a full stack solution That does xy and c for 200,000 dollars. It's the exact same problem So I think it's just the matter of time until we start to cannibalize These extremely expensive ossified large organizations that have relied on a very complicated go-to-market and sales and marketing motion I don't think you needed any more in a world of agents and an auto Gpt's and I think That to me is quite interesting because a It creates an obvious set of public company shorts And then b You actually want to arm the rebels and arming the rebels to use the Toby Lutky analogy here Would mean to seed hundreds of one person teams hundreds And just say go and build this entire stack all over again using a bunch of agents Yeah, I have recursively you'll get to that answer in less than a year Interestingly When you talk about the emotion of making these decisions if you look at Hollywood I just interviewed on my other podcast the founder of you have another podcast. I do it's cool That's my start. Thank you. Since you've been on her four times Dog government excuse to plug it I'm not gonna plug this weekend startups available on Spotify and iTunes and slash this weekend Runways the name of this company I interviewed and what's fascinating about this is he told me on everything Everywhere all at once the award-winning film They had seven visual effects people on it and they were using his software The late night shows like co-bear and stuff like that are using it They are ruthless in terms of creating crazy visual effects now Without and you can do text prompt To get video output and it is quite reasonable what's coming out of it But you can also train it on existing data sets So they're going to be able to take something sacks like the Simpsons Or South Park or Star Wars or Marvel take the entire corpus of the comic books and the movies and the TV shows And then have people type in have ironman do this have Luke Skywalker do that And it's going to output stuff and I said hey when would this reach The the level that the Mandalorian TV show is and he said within two years now he's talking his own book But it's quite possible that all these visual effects people from industrial light magic on down Are going to be replaced with director sacks who are currently using this technology to do What do they call the images like that go with the script storyboards storyboards. Thank you They're doing storyboards in this right now right the difference between the storyboards sacks and the output is Closing in the next 30 months I would say Right, I mean maybe you could speak to a little bit about the pace here because that is the perfect ruthless example of ruthless AI, I mean you could have the entire team at industrial light magic or Pixar be unnecessary This decking well, I mean you see a bunch of the pieces are already there So you have stable diffusion you have the ability to type in the image that you want and it spits out You know a version of it or ten different versions of it and you can pick which one you want to go with You have the ability to create characters you have the ability to create voices You have the ability to replicate a celebrity voice the only thing that's not there yet as far as I know is the ability to take Static images and string them together into a motion picture But that seems like it's coming really soon. So yeah in theory you should be able to train the model Where you just give it a screenplay and it outputs essentially an animated movie And then you should be able to fine tune it by choosing the voices that you want and the characters that you want and You know and that kind of stuff. So Yeah, I think we're close to it now. I think that the question though is You know every nine. Let's call it a reliability Is a big advancement. So yeah, it might be Easy to get to 90% Within two years, but it might take another two years to go from 90 to 99% and then it might take another two years to get to 99.9 and so on and so to actually get to the point where you're at this stage where You can release the actual quality movie. I'm sure it will take a lot longer than two years Well, but look at this axe. I'm just gonna show you one image This is the input was a real drone footage of a mountain range And this is what it came up with now if you were watching TV in the 80s or 90s on a non-HD TV this would look indistinguishable from anything you've seen And so this is at a pace that's kind of crazy. There's also opportunity here right freedberg I mean if we were to look at something like the Simpsons which has gone on for 30 years if young people watching the Simpsons could create their own scenarios or with auto GPT Imagine you told the Simpsons stable diffusion instance Read what's happening in the news have Bart Simpson respond to it have the South Park characters parody Whatever happened in the news today you could have automated real-time episodes of South Park Just being published onto some website before you move on. Did you see the the wonder studio Demo we can pull this one up. It's really cool. Yeah, please This is a startup that's using this type of technology and the way it works is You film a live action scene with a regular actor But then you can just drag and drop an animated character onto it And it then converts that scene into a movie with that character like planity apes are Lord of the Rings right yeah So Dechus you see the person who kept winning all the Oscars so there goes after the robot is replaced the human Wow, you can imagine like every piece of this Disadventually gets swapped out with AI right like you should be able to tell the AI Give me a picture of a human leaving a building Like a Victorian era building in New York and certainly it can give you a static image of that So it's not that far to then give you a video of that right And so yeah, I think we're we're pretty close for let's call it hobbyist or amateur is built to create Pretty nice looking movies Using these types of tools, but again, I think there's a jump to get to the point where you're disall together replacing One of the things I'll say on this is we still keep trying to relate it back to the way media narrative Has been explored and written by humans in the past very kind of Linear storytelling, you know, it's a two hour movie 30 minute TV segment 8 minute YouTube clip 30 second Instagram clip whatever but one of the enabling capabilities with this set of tools is that these stories The way that they're rendered and the way that they're explored by individuals can be fairly dynamic You could watch a movie with the same story all four of us could watch a movie with the same story But from totally different vantage points and some of us could watch it in an 18 minute version or a two hour version or a You know three season episode episodic version where The way that this opens up the potential for creators and all so so now I'm kind of saying Before I was saying hey individuals can make their own movies and videos. That's gonna be incredible There's a separate I think creative output here Which is the leveling up that happens With creators that maybe wasn't possible to them before so perhaps a creator writes a short book a short story And then that short story gets rendered into a system that can allow each one of us to explore it and enjoy it in different ways And I as the creator can define those different vantage points I as the creator can say here's a little bit of this Personality this character trait and so what I can now do as a creator is stuff that I never imagined I could do before Think about old-school photographers doing black and white photography with pinhole cameras And then they come across a doby Photoshop What they can do with a doby Photoshop with stuff that they could never conceptualize of in those old days I think what's gonna happen for creators going forward? And this is going back to that point that we had last week or two weeks ago about the guy that was like Hey, I'm out of a job I actually think that the opportunity for creating new stuff in new ways is so profoundly expanding That individuals can now write entire universes that can then be enjoyed by millions of people from completely different lengths and viewpoints and and models They can be interactive. They can be static. They can be dynamic and that the Personalized but the tooling that you as a creator now have you could choose which characters you want to define you could choose Which content you want to write you could choose which content you want the AI to fill in for you and say hey Create 50 other characters in the village and then when the viewer reads the book or watches the movie Let them explore or have a different interaction with a set of of those villagers In that village or you could say hey, here's the one character everyone has to meet Here's what I want them to say and you can define the dialogue and so the way the creators can start to kind of Harness their creative chops and create new kinds of Modalities for content and for exploration. I think it's going to be so beautiful and incredible. I mean Free bird. Yeah, you can choose the limits of how much you want the individual to enjoy from your content versus how Narely you want to define it and my guess is that the creators that are going to win are going to be the ones that are going to create more dynamic range in the creative output And then individuals are going to kind of be stuck They're going to be more into that than they will with the static everyone watches the same thing over and over so there will be a whole new world of creators that You know maybe have a different set of tools That then just just to build on what you're saying for your things incredibly insightful Just think about the controversy around two aspects of a franchise like James Bond number one Who's your favorite bond we grew up with Roger Moore? We lean towards that then we discover strong Connery Then all of a sudden you see you know the latest one. He's just extraordinary And Daniel Craig you're like, you know what? That's the one that I love most Well, what if you could take any of the films you'd say let me get you know Give me the spy who love me, but put Daniel Craig in it, etc And that would be available to you and then think about the next controversy, which is oh my god does Daniel Does James Bond need to be a white guy from the UK? Of course not you can release it around the world and each region could get their own Celebrity their number one celebrity to play the lead and controversy over You know the old story the epic of Gilgamesh, right? So like that story was retold in dozens of different languages And it was told through the oral tradition It was like you know spoken by Bards around a fire pit and whatnot And all of those stories were told with different characters and different names and different Experiences some of them were 10 minutes long some of them were more multi-hour sawgas explained through the story But ultimately the morality of the story the storyline the intentionality of the original creator of that story Yes, the the Bible is another good example of this where much of the underlying morality and ethics and the Bible comes through in different stories read by different people in different languages Every that that may be where we go like my kids want to have a 10-minute bedtime story Well, let me give him Peter Pan a 10 minutes. I want to do you know a chapter a night for my older daughter for a week long of Peter Pan Now I can do that and so the the way that I can kind of consume content becomes different So I guess what I'm saying is there's two aspects to the way that I think the entire content the the realm of content can be rewritten through AI The first is like individual personalized creation of content where I as a user can render content that was of my liking and my interest The second is that I can engage with content that is being created that is so much more multi-dimensional than anything we conceive of today Where current centralized content creators now have a whole set of tools now from a business model perspective I don't think the plot publishes are really the play anymore But I do think the platforms are going to be the play and the platform tooling that enables the individuals to do this stuff and the platform tooling that enables The content creators to do this stuff are definitely entirely new industries and models that can create multi-hundred billion dollar outcomes Let me hand this off to Saks because there has been the dream for everybody especially in the Bay area of a hero coming And saving Gotham City And this has finally been realized David Saks I did my own little Twitter AI hashtag and I said to Twitter AI If only please generate a picture of David Saks's Batman crouch Down on the peak thing a bridge the amount of creativity sacks that came from this and this is Something that you know if we were talking about just five years ago. This would be like a ten thousand dollar image You could create through it the birthday. We're not these were not professional quote-unquote artists these were Individuals that were able to harness a set of platform tools to generate this incredible new content And I think it speaks to the opportunity ahead and by the way, we're in ining one right so Saks, you know, you see yourself as Batman Do you ever think you should take your enormous wealth and resources and put it towards building a cave under your Mansion that lets you out underneath the golden gate bridge and you could go fight crimes so good Saks do you want to go fight this crime in Gotham? I think it's almost just go has a lot of Gotham like qualities. I think the villains are more real than the heroes And fortunately we don't have a lot of heroes, but yeah, we got a lot of jokers Yeah, we have a lot of jokers. Yeah, that's a whole separate topic. I'm sure we'll get to it We'll get to it at some point today You guys are talking about all this stupid bullshit like there are trillions of dollars of software companies That could get disrupted and you're talking about making fucking children's books and fat pictures of saks It's so dumb. No, it's a conversation The boy is entering the entertainment industry doing a great job. No, nobody cares about entertainment anymore because it's so Okay, so one of the biggest industries that we are at the money is why don't you teach people where there's going to be actual economic destruction And this is gonna be an amazing economic destruction and opportunity You spent all this time on the most stupidest fucking topics. Listen, it's an illustrative example No, it's an elitist example that you Know what's the actual talk your list. It's Batman's not nobody. Nobody cares about movies. Let's bring nobody tweet over everybody's good point. I mean, I think I think us box office is something like 20 billion a year I remember when like they got to like a hundred billion a year of payment volume and now it's like hundreds of billions So add in and strike we're gonna process two trillion dollars almost want you to talk about that disruption you nitty Market size of us meeting entertainment industry 17 billion. Okay, it's it's not insignificant Video games are nearly half a trillion a year. Yeah, I mean, this is number in significant But let's pull up Chimaltz tweet of course the dictator wants to dictate here all this incredible innovation is being made and a new hero has been born Chimaltz Polyhapatia a tweet that went viral over 1.2 million views already Our regia tweet for the audience if you invent a novel drug You need the government to vet and approve it FDA before you can commercialize it if you invent a new mode of air travel you need the government to vet and improve it FAA I'm just gonna edit this down a little bit if you create new security you need the government to vet it and improve it SEC more generally when you create things with broad societal impact positive and negative the government creates a layer to review and improve it AI will need such an oversight body the FDA approval process seems the most credible and it's Adaptable into a framework to understand how A model behaves and it's counterfactual Our political leaders need to get in front of this sooner rather than later and create some oversight before the eventual big avoidable mistakes happen And genies are led out of the bottle Chimaltz you really want the government to come in And then when people build these tools they have to submit them to the government to approve them That's what you're saying here and you want that to start now Here's the alternative the alternative is gonna be the debacle that we know a section 230 So if you try to write a brittle piece of legislation or try to use Old legislation to deal with something new It's not gonna do a good job because technology advances way too quickly And so if you look at the section 230 example where have we left ourselves the politicians have a complete inability To pass a new framework to deal with social media to deal with misinformation And so now we're all kind of guessing what A bunch of eight seventy eight eighty year old supreme court justices will do in trying to rewrite technology law When they have to apply in on section 230 so the point of that tweet was to lay The alternatives there is no world in which this will be unregulated And so I think the question to ask ourselves is do we want a chance for a new body So the FDA is a perfect example why even though the FDA commissioner is appointed by the president This is a quasi organization. It's still arms length away It has subject matter experts that they hire and they have many pathways to approval Some pathways take days some pathways are months and years some pathways are for breakthrough innovations some pathways are for devices So they they have a broad spectrum of ways of of arbitrating What can be commercialized and what cannot Otherwise my prediction is we will have a very brittle law That will not work it'll be like the commerce department and the FTC Trying to gerrymandor some old piece of legislation And then what will happen is it'll get escalated to the supreme court and I think they are the last group of people Who should be deciding on this incredibly important topic for society so What I have been advocating our leaders and I will continue to do so is Don't try to ram this into an existing body It is so important. It is worth creating a new organization like the FDA And having a framework that allows you to look at a model and look at the counterfactual Judge how good how important how disruptive it is And then release it in the wild appropriately otherwise I think you'll have these chaos GPT things Scale infinitely because again as freeberg said in a sex said you're talking about one person that can create this chaos Multiply that by every person that is an anarchist or every person that just wants to sow seeds of Chaos and I think it's going to be all avoidable I think regulating what software people can write is a near impossible task Number one, I think you can probably put rules and restrictions around commerce right that that's certainly feasible In terms of how people can monetize but in terms of writing and utilizing software It's going to be as challenged as trying to monitor and demand oversight and regulation around how people write and use Tools for for genome and biology Exploration certainly if you want to take a product to market and sell a drug to people that can influence their body You have to go get that approved But in terms of you know, we're doing your work in a lab. It's very difficult. I think the other challenge here is Software can be written anywhere It can be executed anywhere And so if the US does try to regulate or does try to put the brakes on The development of tools where the US can have kind of a great economic benefit and a great economic interest There will be advances made elsewhere without a doubt and those markets and those Those places will benefit in an extraordinarily out Outpace way as we just mentioned there's such extraordinary kind of economic gain to be realized here that if we're not If the United States is not leading the world we are going to be following and we are going to get disrupted We are going to lose an incredible amount of value and talent and so any attempt at regulation Or slowing down or telling people that they cannot do things when they can easily hop on a plane and go do it elsewhere I think is is fraught with peril So you don't agree with regulation sacks Are you on board with the Chimath plan or you're on board with the free bird? I'll say I think just like with computer hacking It's illegal to break into someone else's computer. It is illegal to steal someone's personal information There are laws that are absolutely simple and obvious and You know, no nonsense laws those legal to get rid of a hundred thousand jobs by making a piece of software though That's right and so I think trying to intentionalize How we do things versus intentionalizing The things that we want to prohibit happening as an outcome We can certainly try and prohibit the things that we want to happen up as an outcome and pass laws And institute governing bodies with authority to oversee those laws With respect to things like stealing data But you can jump on a plane and go do it in Mexico, Canada or whatever region you got to sacks Where do you stand on this debate? No, I'm yeah, I'm saying like there are ways to protect people There's ways to protect society about passing laws that make it illegal to do things as the output as the outcome What law do you pass on chaos gpt? Explain chaos gpt giving example please Yeah, do you want to talk about it real quick? It's a recursive agent that basically is trying to destroy itself Trying to destroy humanity Yeah, but I guess by first becoming all powerful and destroying humanity and then destroying itself Yeah, it's a tongue-in-cheek auto gpt But it's not it's not it's not a tongue-in-cheek auto gpt Well, the guy that created it you know put it out there and said like he's trying to show everyone to your point What intentionality could arise here, which is negative intentionality I think it's very naive for anybody To think that this is not equivalent to something that could cause harm to you So for example if the prompt is hey here is a security leak that we figured out in windows And so why don't you exploit it? So look a hacker now has to be very technical Today with with these auto gpt's a hacker does not need to be technical at all exploit the zero day Hmm exploit in windows hack into this plane and bring it down. Oh, okay. The gpt will do it So who's gonna tell you that those things are not allowed? Who's gonna actually vet That that wasn't allowed to be released in the wild So for example if you worked with Amazon and Google and Microsoft and said you're gonna have to run these things in a sandbox And we're gonna have to observe the output before we allow it To run on actual bare metal in the wild Again, that seems like a reasonable thing and it's a super naive for people to think it's a free market So we should just be able to do what we want This will end badly quickly And when the first plane goes down and when the first fucking thing gets blown up All of you guys will be like oh, sorry sacks Pretty compelling example here by chimath somebody puts out into the wild chaos gpt You can go do a google search read and says hey What are the vulnerabilities to the electrical grid Compile those and automate a series of attacks and write some code to probe those until we and success in this mission You get a hundred points and stars every time you Jason do this such a it's such a beautiful example But it's even more nefarious it is Hey This is an enemy that's trying to hack our system. So you need to hack theirs and bring it down You know like you can easily trick these gpt's Right, yes, they have no judgment. They have no judgment and as you said they're ruthless in getting to the outcome Right So why why do we think all of a sudden this is not gonna happen? I mean, it's literally the science fiction example you say hey listen Make sure no humans get cancer and like okay Well the logical way to make sure no humans get cancer is to kill all the humans But chimath can you just address the point? So what do you think you're regulating? Are you regulating the code that you want to write if you look at the FDA No, you're allowed to make any chemical drug you want but if you want to commercialize it You need to run a series of trials With highly qualified measurable data and you submit it to like-minded experts that are trained as you are To evaluate the viability of that and but there are pat well done There are pathways that allow you to get that done in days Under emergency use and then there are pathways that can take years depending on how gargantuan the task is at hand and all I'm suggesting Is having some amount of oversight? Is not bad in this specific example? I get what you're saying but I'm asking tactically how what are you overseeing? You're overseeing cat GPT or overseas Be be modeled you're doing exactly what that chips Okay, look I used to run the Facebook platform. We used to create sandboxes if you submit code to us You would we would run it into sandbox we would observe it We would figure out what it was trying to do and we would tell you this is allowed to run in the wild There's a version of that that Apple does when you submit an app for review and approval Google does it as well in this case all the bare metal providers all the people that provide GPUs will be forced by the government in my opinion to implement Something and all I'm suggesting is That it should be a new kind of body that essentially observes that has PhDs that has people who are trained in this stuff To develop the kind of testing and the output that you need To figure out whether it should even be allowed to run in the wild on bare metal Sorry, but you're saying that the mod the model sorry. I'm just trying to understand to most points You're saying that the models need to be reviewed by this body and those models if they're run on a third-party set of servers If they run in the wild Right, so if they're running open computers on the open internet freeberg You cannot run an app on your computer. You know that right? It needs to be connected to the internet Right, like if you wanted to run an auto GPT it actually crawls the internet. It actually touches other APIs It tries to then basically send a push request sees what it gets back Parses the JSON figures out what it needs to do All of that is allowed because it's hosted by somebody right that code is running not locally But I do So the host becomes sure if you want to run it locally you can do whatever you want to do But evil agents are gonna do that right? So if I'm an evil agent I'm not gonna go use AWS to run my evil agent. I'm gonna set up a bunch of servers and connect to the internet how I could use VPNs. I'm the internet is open this open Talking about people are in another road country. They can do it everyone I think that what you're gonna see is that if you for example try to VPN and run it out of like Tajikistan back to the United States It's not gonna take years for us to figure out that we need to IP block rando shit coming in push and pull requests From all kinds of IPs that we don't trust anymore because we don't now trust the regulatory oversight that they have for code That's running from those IPs at an iUS domestic Let me steal man. Chimach's position for second Jason hold on. I think the ultimate if if what Chimach is saying Is the point of view of Congress and if if Chimach has this point of view then there will certainly be people in Congress that will Adopt this point of view the only way to ultimately do that degree of regulation and restriction is gonna be to restrict the open internet It is gonna be to have monitoring and firewalls and safety protocols across the open internet because you can have a set of models running on any set of server It's sitting in any physical location and as long as they can move data packets around They're gonna be able to get up to their nefarious activities Let me steal man that for you freeberg. I think Yes, you're correct the the internet has existed in a very open way But there are organizations and there are places like the national highway traffic safety administration If I were to steal man Chimach's position if you want to manufacture a car and You want to make one in your backyard and put it on your track and on your land up in Napa somewhere And you don't want to have brakes on the car and you don't want to have You know a speed limiter or airbags or seatbelts and you want to drive on the hood of the car You can do that but once you want it to go on the open road the open internet You need to get you need to submit it for some safety standards like nhtsa like Tesla has to or Ford has to Sussex where do you sit on this are Is Let's assume that people are going to do very bad things with very Powerful models that are becoming available Amazon today said they'll be switched to land They're gonna put a bunch of llms and other models available on AWS Bloomberg's llm facebooks Google barred and of course chinchy pt open AI and bing all the stuff's available to have access to that Do you need to have some regulation of who has access to those at scale powerful tools should there be some FDA or nhtsa? I don't think we know how to regulate it yet I think it's too early and I think the harms that we're speculating about we're making the AI more powerful than it is And I believe it will be that powerful But I think that it's premature to be talking about regulating something that doesn't really exist yet. Take to the chaos gpt scenario The way that would play out would be You've got some future incarnation of auto gpt And somebody says okay auto gpt. I want you to be you know WMDI And figure out how to cause like a mass destruction event You know and then it creates like a planning checklist and that kind of stuff So that's basically the the type of scenario we're we're talking about We're not anywhere close to that yet. I mean the chaos gpt is kind of a joke. It doesn't produce it doesn't produce a checklist. I can give an example that would actually Be completely plausible one of the first things on the chaos gpt's checklist was to stay within the boundaries of the law because it didn't want to get prosecuted Got it. So the person who did that had some sort of good intent But I can give you an example right now That could be done by chat gpt and auto gpt that could take down large walks of society and cause massive destruction I'm almost reticent to say it here say it uh Well, I'll say it and then maybe we'll have to delete this but if somebody created this and they said Uh figure out a way to compromise as many powerful peoples and as many systems passwords then go in there and delete all their files and turn off as many systems as you can Chat gpt and auto gpt could very easily create phishing accounts create billions of websites to create Lodgans have people log into them get their passwords log into whatever they do and then delete everything in their accounts Which was chaos you're right and it could be done today. I don't think we've done today simpler than this How about how about you phishing and just phishing website? Yeah, pieces of it can be created today But you're you're accelerating the progress. Yeah, but you can auto We're phishing days 30 days. Yeah, exactly and but I think I'm accelerating it in weeks Why don't you just spoof the bank accounts and just steal the money like that's even simpler like people will do the stuff Because they're trying to do it today holy cow now they just have a more efficient way to solve the problem about bank accounts So let's so number one This is a tool and if people use a tool in nefarious ways you prosecute them Number two the platforms that are commercializing these tools do have trust and safety teams now in the past Trust and safety has been a euphemism for censorship which it shouldn't be but you know open AI has a safety team And they try to detect when people are using their tech in a nefarious way and they try to prevent it Do you trust that? Well, no not on censorship, but I think that they're probably and people are using chat to be so much I think they're policing it. Are you willing to abdicate your or societal responsibility to to open AI to do the trust and safety? What I'm what I'm saying is I'd like to see how far we get in terms of the system Yeah, you say you want to see the mistakes You want to see where the mistakes are and how bad the mistakes are I'm saying it's still very early to be imposing regulation We don't even know what to regulate So I think we have to keep tracking this to develop some understanding of how it might be misused How the industry is going to develop safety guardrails Okay, and then you can talk about regulation look you create some new FDA right now Okay, first of all we know what would happen look at the drug process as soon as the FDA got involved It slowed down massively now it takes years many years to get a drug approved appropriately so yes But at least with a drug we know what the gold standard is you run a double-blind study To see whether it causes harm or whether it's beneficial We don't know what that standard is for AI yet. We have no idea. You can now see what's gonna happen in a Study in AI. What no, we don't know that somebody review the code. You have two instances in a Music code to do what no sex Auto GPT It's benign. I mean My friend use it to book a wine tasting So who's gonna review that code and then speculate and say oh well In 99.9% of cases it's perfectly benevolent and fine and innocuous I can fantasize about some cases someone might do how how you just to resolve that very simple There are two types of regulation that I concur in any industry You can do what the movie industry did which is they self-regulate and they came up with their own rating system Or you can do what happens with the FDA and what happens with cars which is an external government based body I think now is the time for self-regulation so that we avoid the massive Heavy-hand of government having to come in here But these tools can be used today to create massive farm. They're moving at a pace We just said in the first half of the show that none of us have ever seen every 48 hours something drops That is mind-blowing that's never happened before and you can Take these tools and in the one example that Tremoth and I came up with a top of our head in 30 seconds You could create phishing sites compromise people's bank accounts take all the money out delete all the files and cause Chaos on a scale that has never been possible by a series of Russian hackers or Chinese hackers Working in a boiler room this can scale and that is the Defundamental difference here and I didn't think I would be sitting here steel manning Tremoth's argument I think humans have a horrible ability to compound. I think people do not understand compound interest And this is a perfect example where when you start to compound technology at the rate of 24 hours or 48 hours Which we've never really had to acknowledge Most people's brains break and they don't understand what six months from now looks like and six months from now When you're compounding at 48 or 72 hours is like 10 to 12 years in other technology solutions This is compounding this is this is different because the compounding I agree with that the pace revolution Is very fast. We are on a bullet train to something and we don't know exactly what it is and that's disconcerting However, let me tell you what would happen if we create a new regulatory body like the FDA to regulate this They would have no idea how to arbitrate whether a technology should be approved or not Development will basically slow to a crawl to slight drug development. There is no double blind stand. I agree All the legislation can we do what's off regulation committive? There is no double blind standard in AI that everyone can agree on right now To know whether somebody should be approved and what's gonna happen is the thing that's made software development so magical and allowed All this innovation over the last 25 years is permissionless innovation any developer any dropout from a university can go create their own project It which turns into a company and that is what has driven all the innovation and progress in our economy over the last 25 years So you're going to replace permissionless innovation with going to Washington to go through some approval process And it will be the politically connected it'll be the big donors who get their projects approved and the next Marcus Zuckerberg who's trying to do his little project in a dormant somewhere will not know how to do that Well, not know how to compete and that highly political process I think you're mixing a bunch of things together. So first of all permissionless innovation happens today in biotech as well It's just that it's what Jason said when you want to put it on the rails of society and make it available to everybody You you actually have to go and do something substantive In the negotiation of these drug approvals. It's not some standardized thing You actually sit with the FDA and you have to decide what are our endpoints? What is the mechanism of action and how will we measure the efficacy of this thing? The idea that you can't do this today in AI is laughable. Yes, you can and I think that smart people So for example if you pit Deep minds team versus open AI's team To both agree that a model is good and correct. I bet you they would find A systematic way to test that it's fun. I just want to point down. Okay, so basically in order to do what you're saying Okay, this entrepreneur Who just dropped out of college to do their project? They're gonna have to learn how to go sit with regulators Have a conversation with them go through some complicated approval process And you're trying to say that that won't turn into a game of political connections. Of course it will of course Of course, a lot and we're on and look at which is self-regulation Yeah, well, let's get to that hold on a second and let's look at the drug approval process If you want to create a drug company you need to raise hundreds of millions of dollars It's incredibly expensive. It's incredibly capital intensive. There is no drug company that is two guys in their garage Like many of the biggest companies like many of the biggest companies this looks like a valley started That is because you're talking about taking a chemical or biological compound and injecting into some hundreds or thousands of people Who are both racially gender-based age-based Highly stratified all around the world or at a minimum all around the country You're not talking about that here David. I think that you could have a much simpler and cheaper way where you have A version of the internet that's running in a huge sandbox someplace that's closed off from the rest of the internet And another version of the internet that's closed off from everything else as well and you can run on a parallel path As it is with this agent and you can easily in my opinion actually figure out whether this agent is good or bad and you can probably do it in weeks So I actually think the approvals are actually not that complicated and the reason to do it here Is because I get that it may cause a little bit more friction for some of these mom and pops But if you think about what's the societal and consequences of letting the worst case outcomes happen The AGI type outcomes happen. I think those are so bad They're worth slowing some folks down and I think like just because you want to you know buy groceries for a hundred dollars You should be able to do it. I get it But if people don't realize and connect the dots between that and bringing airplanes down Then that's because they don't understand what this is capable of. I'm not saying we're never going to need regulation What I'm saying is it's way too early. We don't even know what we're regulating We don't know what the standard would be and what we will do by racing to create a new FDA is destroying American innovation in the sector and other countries will not slow down. They will beat us to the punch here Got it. I think there's a middle ground here Of self-regulation and thoughtfulness on the part of the people who are providing these tools at scale To give just but one example here and this tweet is from five minutes ago So to look at the pace of this five minutes ago this tweet came out a Developer who's an AI developer says AI agents continue to amaze my GPT4 coding it says learned how to build apps with Authenticated users it can build and design a web app create a backend handle off Logins upload code to GitHub and deploy He had literally while we were talking is deploying websites now if this website was a phishing app at or the one that Chimoff is talking about he could make a gazillion different versions of banking of of America Wells Fargo etc then find everybody on the internet's email then start sending different spoofing emails Determine which spoofing emails work iterate on those and create a global financial collapse now This sounds insane, but it's happening right now people get hacked every day at one two three percent Sacks fraud is occurring right now in the low single digit percentages identity theft is happening in the low single A percentages this technology is moving so fast that bad actors could 10x that relatively easy And so if 10% of us want to be hacked and have our credit card hacked this could create chaos I think self-regulation is the solution I'm the one who brought up self-regulation where I said I brought up first I brought up first I get credit no go ahead I'm not so not credit. I'm no I've got to find a way to talk for eight minutes So if you have a point to make you should have got in the eight minutes. Oh my god. You guys kept interrupting me Go ahead what I said is that there are trust and safety teams at these big AI companies these big foundation Model companies like open AI like I said In the past trust and safety is going to you from his infrastructure and that's why people don't trust it But I think it would be appropriate for these platform companies to Apply some guardrails on how their tools can be used and based on everything I know they're doing that So this guy just released websites on the web with chat GP4 and he's gonna have it do it automated You're basically postulating Capabilities that don't yet exist I just tweeted the guy is doing it. He's got a video of himself doing it on the web What do you think freeber? That's a far cry from basically running like some fishing Expedition that's gonna bring down the entire banking system A literally a fishing a fishing site and a site with OAuth are the same thing go ahead freeber I think that that guy Is doing something illegal if he's hacking into computers Into people's emails and bank accounts. That's illegal. You're not a lot to do that And so that action breaks the law that person can be prosecuted for doing that The tooling that one might use to do that Can be used in a lot of different ways Just like you could use Microsoft word to forge letters just like you could use Microsoft Excel to create fraudulent financial statements. I think that the application of a platform technology needs to be distinguished from The technology itself and while we all feel extraordinarily fearful because the unbelievable leverage that these AI Tools provide again. I'll remind you that this chat GPT-4 or this GPT-4 model By some estimates is call it a few terabytes. You could store it on a hard drive or you could store it on your iPhone And you could then go run it on any set of servers that you could go set up physically anywhere So you know, it's a little bit naive to say we can go ahead and you know regulate platforms and we can go regulate the tools Certainly we should continue to enforce and protect ourselves Against nefarious actors using you know new tools in in inappropriate illegal ways You know, I also think that there's a moment here that we should all kind of Observe just how quickly we want to shut things down when You know, they take away what feels like The the control that we all have From one day to the next and you know that the the real side kind of sense of fear That seems to be quite contagious for a large number of people that have significant assets or significant things to lose Is that you know tooling that's that's you know creating Entirely newly disruptive systems and models for business and economics And opportunity for so many Needs to be regulated away to minimize you know what we claim to be some potential downside when we already have laws that protect us On the other side So you know, I just kind of Want to also consider that this set of tools creates extraordinary opportunity We gave one sort of simple example about the opportunity for creators But we talked about how new business models new businesses can be started with one or two people You know entirely new tools can be built with a handful of people entirely new businesses This is an incredible economic opportunity and again if the US tries to regulate it or the US tries to come in and stop the application of models in general Or regulate models in general you're certainly going to see those models of continue to evolve and continue to be utilized In very powerful ways are going to be advantageous To places outside the US there's over 180 countries on earth. They're not all going to regulate together It's been hard enough to get any sort of coordination around financial systems to get coordination around climate change to get coordination around anything on a global basis To try and get coordination around the the software models that are being developed. I think is is pretty naive You don't want to have a global organization. I think you need to have a domestic organization that protects us And I think Europe will have their own they again FDA versus Emma Canada has its own Japan has its own China has its own and they they have a lot of overlap and a lot of commonality and then the guard rules they use And I think that's what's going to happen here. This will be beneficial only for political insiders who will basically be able to get their projects and their apps approved With a huge day weight loss for the system because innovation will completely slow down But to many build on freebergues point which is that We have to remember that AI won't just be used by nefarious actors. It'll be used by positive actors So there will be new tools that law enforcement will be able to use and if somebody's creating fishing sites at scale They're going to be probably pretty easy for you know law enforcement aIs to detect so let's not forget that they'll be co-pilates Written for our law enforcement authorities They'll be able to use that to basically detect and fight crime and a really good example This was in the crypto space We saw this article over the past week that chain analysis has figured out how to basically track You know elicit bitcoin transactions and there's now a huge number of prosecutions that are happening of Illegal use of bitcoin and if you go back to him bitcoin first took off There was a lot of conversations around silk road and the only thing that bitcoin was good for was basically illegal transactions black mailing Drug trafficking and therefore we had to stop bitcoin remember that was the main argument and the counter argument was that well No bitcoin like any technology can be used for good or bad. However, there will be technologies that spring up To combat those nefarious or illicit use cases and sure enough you had a company like chain analysis come along And now it's been used by law enforcement to basically crack down on the illicit use of bitcoin And if anything it's cleaned up the bitcoin community tremendously and I think it's dispelled this idea that the only thing you'd use Bitcoin for is black market transactions quite the contrary. I think you'd be really stupid now to use bitcoin in that way It's actually turned bitcoin. It's something of a honey pot now because if you used it for nefarious transactions Your transactions record in the blockchain forever. It's waiting for Chain analysis to find it So again using bitcoin to do something illegal. We really stupid. I think in a similar way You're going to see self-regulation by these major AI platform companies combined with new tools are used new AI tools That's spring up to help combat the nefarious uses and until we let those forces play out I'm not saying regulate never. I'm just saying we need to let those forces play out Before we leap to creating some new regulatory body that doesn't even understand what its mandate and missions goes to be the bitcoin stories hilarious by the way I have a regulatory journal story. It's unbelievable pretty epic. It took years But basically this guy was buying blow on Silk Road and he deposited his bitcoin and then when he withdrew it He there was a bug that gave him twice as many bitcoin So he kept creating more accounts putting more money into silk road and getting more bitcoin out And then years later the authorities figured this out again with you know chain analysis type things look at James Zong over there look at James on the accused Had a Lamborghini a Tesla a late house And was living his best life apparently when the feds Uh knocked on his door and found the digital keys through his crypto fortune In a popcorn gym in his bathroom And in a safe in his basement Floor So there you have it. Well the reason the reason I posted this was I was like what if this Claim that you can have all these anonymous transactions actually fooled An entire market because it looks like that this Anonymity has effectively been reverse engineered and there's no anonymity at all and so What bitcoin is quickly becoming is like the most singular honey pot of Transactional information that's complete and available in public And I think what this article talks about is how companies like chain analysis and others have worked now For years almost a decade With law enforcement to be able to map all of it and so now every time Money goes from one bitcoin wall to another they effectively know the sender and the recipient And I just want to make a one quick correction here. It wasn't actually exactly popcorn. It was Cheetos spicy flavor popcorn And there's the tin of it Where he had a motherboard of a computer that held is a key chance that that this project was actually introduced by The government. I mean there's been reports of tour of anonymous Or network that the CIA had their hands all over tour TOR if you don't know it, which is an anonymous like multi relay peer-to-peer web browsing system and people believe it's a CIA honey pot An intentional trap for criminals to Get themselves caught up in All right, as we wrap here. What an amazing discussion my lord. I never thought I would be I want to say one thing yes we saw that Someone was arrested for the murder of Bob Lee that's what I was about this morning Yeah, which turns out that the report of the SF PD's arrest is that it's someone that he knew that also works in the tech industry Possibly right so still breaking news. Yeah, yes possibly But I I want to say two things one Obviously based on this arrest and the storyline. It's quite different than what we all assumed it to be which was some sort of homeless robbery type moment that Has become all too commonplace in SF It's a commentary for me on two things one is how quick we all were to kind of judge and assume That you know a homeless robber type person would do this in SF Which I think speaks to the condition in SF right now Also speaks to our conditioning that that we all kind of Lacked or didn't even want to engage in a conversation that maybe this person was murdered by someone that they knew Because we wanted to kind of very quickly fill our own narrative about how bad SF is And that's just something that I really felt when I read this this morning. I was like man like I didn't even consider the possibility That this guy was murdered by someone that he knew Because I am so enthralled right now by this narrative that SF is so bad and it must be another data point that validates my point of view on SF So you know, I kind of want to just acknowledge that and acknowledge that we all kind of do that right now But I do think it also does in fact unfortunately speak to how bad things are in SF because we all are We've all have these experiences of feeling like we're in danger and under threat all the time we're walking around in SF Uh in so many parts of San Francisco I should say where things feel like they've gotten really bad I think both things can be true that we can kind of feel biased and fill our own narrative By kind of latching on to our assumption about what something tells us But but it also tells us quite a lot about what is going on in SF So I just wanted to make that point In fairness and I think it's fine for you to make that point I am extremely vigilant on this program to always say when something is breaking news with whole judgment Whether it's the Trump case or Jesse Smolat or anything in between January 6th Let's wait until you get all the facts and in fact quote from sacks We don't know exactly what happened yet Correct Literally sacks started with that. Yes. We do that every fucking time on this program We know when there's breaking news to withhold judgment, but you can also know Two things can be true a tolerance for ambiguity is necessary But I'm saying I didn't even do that. As soon as I heard this I was like I was like oh almost for the subject Sumption but jit but David that is a fine assumption to make That's a fine assumption to make a logical assumption listen You made that assumption for your own protection We got all these reporters who are basically propaganda is trying to claim that crime is down in San Francisco They're all basically seeking comment for me this morning sending emails are trying to Oh god on us because we basically talked about the bubbly case in that way Listen We said that we didn't know what happened But if we were in a bet at least what I said is I bet this case it looks like a lot like the Brianna Cup for case That was logical. That's not conditioning or bias. That's logic and you need to look at what else happened that week Okay, so just the same week that bubbly was killed let me give you three other examples of things that happened in Gotham city A case in Francisco So number one former Fire commissioner Don Carmaniani was beaten with an in service life by a group of homeless addicts in the marina And one of them was interviewed in terms of why it happened and basically Don came down bit from his mother's house And told them to move off his mother's front porch because they were obstructing her ability to get in and out of her apartment They interpret that as disrespect and they beat him with a tire iron or a metal pipe and One of the hoodlums who was involved in this apparently admitted this yeah play the video Somebody over the head like that and attack him I see this he was just disrespectful. We Who was disrespectful? That was a big old Kind of bald-haired old man done done so he was being disrespectful and then but is that enough to beat him off? Yeah, sometimes oh my lord. I mean, so this is case number one and apparently in the Reporting on that person who was just interviewed he's been in the marina kind of terrorizing people Maybe not physically but verbally So you have you know bands of homeless people in camped and front of people's houses Don Carmaniani gets beaten with an in service life You then had the case of the whole food store on market street shut down in San Francisco And this was not a case of shoplifting like some of the other store closings we've seen They said they were closing the store because they could not protect their employees The bathroom were filled with needles and pipes that were a drug paraphernalia you had Drug addicts going in there using it they were engaging in altercations with store employees And whole foods felt like that to close the store because again they cannot protect their employees Third example Board of supervisors had to expand their own meeting Because their internet connection got vandalized The fiber for the cable connection to provide their internet got vandalized so that to basically just Banned their meeting air and press gun was the one who announced this and you saw in the response To this yeah my retweeting him when viral There were lots of people said yeah, I've got a small business and the fiber or the copper wire whatever was vandalized And in a lot of cases I think it's basically drug addict stealing whatever they can They steal $10 of copper wire sell that to get a hit And it causes $40,000 of property damage here's the insincereity sacks literally The proper response when there's violence in San Francisco is hey, we need to make this place less violent Is there a chance that it could be people who know each other of course that's inherent in any Crime that occurs that they'll be time to investigate it But literally the press is now using this as a moment to say there's no crime in San Francisco where that we're reacting and like I just have the New York Times email me during the podcast Had their night from the chronicle San Francisco Chronicle In light of the Bob Lee killing appearing to be an interpersonal dispute She still doesn't know right we don't have all the facts with another tech leader Do you think the tech community jumped to conclusions? Why are so many tech leaders Painting San Francisco as a dystopian housecape with the reality with the reality is more nuanced I think it's a little type of there well yeah Yes, I mean it's like of course the reality is nuanced of course. It's a housecape Walk down the street Heather can I give you a theory please? I think it was most evident in the way that Elon dismantled and manhandled the BBC reporter. Oh my god. That was brutal This is a small microcosm of what I think media is so I used to think that media had an agenda I actually now think that they don't particularly have an agenda Other than to be relevant because they see waning relevance and so I think what happens is whenever there are a bunch of articles that tilt a pendulum into a narrative They all of a sudden become very focused on refuting that narrative And even if it means they have to lie they'll do it Right, so you know, I think for months and months I think people have seen that the quality of the discourse on Twitter became better and better Elon was doing a lot with bots and all of this stuff cleaning it up and This guy had to try to establish the counter narrative And was willing to lie in order to do it then he was dismantled Here you guys I don't have a bone to pick so much with San Francisco I think I've been relatively silent on this topic, but you guys as residents and former residents I think I've invested interest in the quality of that city and you guys have been very vocal But I think that you're not the only ones Michal Tandler, you know, Sheldon Berger There's a bunch of smart thoughtful people who've been beating this drum Gary Tan And so now I think reporters don't want to write the N plus first article saying that San Francisco is a hellscape So they have to take the other side And so now they're going to go and kick up the counter narrative and they'll probably dismantle the truth and kind of redirect it in order to do it So I think that what you're seeing is They'll initially tell a story but what then there's too much of the truth They'll go to the other side because that's the only way to get clicks and be seen So I think that that's what you guys are a part of right now. They are in the business of protecting the narrative But I do think there's a huge ideological component to the narrative both in the Elon case where they're trying to claim that there was a huge rise in hate speech on Twitter The reason they're saying that is because they want Twitter to engage in more censorship That's the ideological agenda here The agenda is this radical agenda of decarceration They actually believe that more and more people should be led out of prison And so therefore they have an incentive to deny the existence of crime and San Francisco and the rise in crime and San Francisco If you poll most people in San Francisco large majority of San Francisco believe that crime is on the rise because they can see it They hear it and what I would say is look that I think there's a pyramid of Activity a pyramid of criminal or anti-social behavior in San Francisco that we can all see The base level is you've got a level of chaos on the streets where you have open-air drug markets people doing drugs Sometimes you'll see you know a person doing something disgusting You know like people defecating on the streets or even worse Then there's like a level up where they're chasing after you or you know harassing you people have experienced that I've experienced that then there's a level up where there's petty crime your car gets broken into or something like that Then there's the level where you get mugged and then finally the top of the pyramid is that there's a murder and it's true That most of the time the issues don't go all the way to the top of the pyramid where someone is murdered Okay, but that doesn't mean there's not a vast pyramid underneath that of Basically quality of life issues and I think this term quality of life was originally used as some sort of way to Minimize the behavior that was going on saying that they weren't really crimes We shouldn't worry about them But if anything what we've seen in San Francisco is that when you ignore Quality of life crimes you will actually see a Huge diminishment in what it's like to live in these cities like quality of life is real And that's the issue and I think what they're trying to do now is that say that because Bob Lee wasn't The case that we thought it was that that whole pyramid doesn't exist That pyramid exists we can all experience it. Oh my god I mean, and that's the insincereity of this it is insincere and the existence of that pyramid that we can see And here and feel and experience every day is why we're willing to make a bet We called it a bet that the Bob Lee case was like the Brianna Cuffer case and in that we're with a disclaimer with a disclaimer We always do a disclaimer here and just to George Hammond from the financial times who email me Here's what he asked me There's a lot of public attention lately on whether San Francisco status has one of the top business and technology hubs in the US is at risk in the aftermath of the pandemic Da obviously it is I wondered if you had a moment to chat about that and whether there is a danger that negative perceptions about the city will damage its Revitation for founders and capitalica is in the future. So essentially the and it says the obviously a lot of potential for Historia in this conversation which I'm keen to avoid and it's like I have you walked down the street and I asked them have you walked down the street in San Francisco? Jason the best response is send him the thing that saccent which is the amount of available office Space in San Francisco people voting companies companies are voting with their feet So it's already if the quality of life wasn't so poor they stay this is the essence of gas sliding is what they do is the people who've Actually created the situation San Francisco with their policies Their policies of defunding the police making it harder for the police to do their job decriminalizing theft under $950 allowing open air drug markets the people who have now created that matrix of policies have created the situation What they then turn around and do is say no the people who create the problem are the ones who are observing This that's all we're doing is observing and complaining about it And what they try to do is say well no you're you're running down San Francisco We're not the ones creating the problem. We're observing it and just this week another data point is at the mayor's office said They were short more than 500 police officers in San Francisco Yeah, nobody who who's gonna become a police officer here are you crazy? Well, and there was another article just this week about how there's a lot of speculation Arumers are swirling of an unofficial strike in an informal strike by police officers who are normally On the force who are tired of risking life and limb and then you know They basically risk getting in a physical Altrucation with a homeless person they bring them in and then they're just released again So there's a lot of quiet quitting this going on of the job. It's like this learned helplessness because Why take a risk and then the police commission doesn't have your back It seems like the only time you have prosecutorial By a lot of these prosecutors is when they can go after a cop Not one of these repeat offenders and you just saw that by the way in LA Oh look motherboard and New York Times just emailed and DMed me and then and then did you guys say that Instead of solving these issues the board of supervisors was dealing with Our wild parrot what was it? What was the meeting that was suspended they had or yeah they had scheduled a meeting To vote on whether the wild parrots are the official animal of the city of San Francisco So that was the scheduled meeting that got Dispanded also cannot may I just clarify what In law interview a BBC reporter interviewed Elon and said there is much more Race and hate and hate speech in the feeds on Twitter and he said can you give me an example? And he said well, I don't have an example, but people are saying this is it which people are saying it and the BBC reporter said Well, just different groups of people are saying it and you know, I've certainly seen you said okay You saw it and for you he goes no, I stopped looking at for you. He said so Give me one example of hate speech that you've seen in your feed Now we without speaking about any inside information which I do not have much of They they've been pretty deliberate of removing hate speech from places like for you and You know, it's a very complicated issue when you have an open platform, but the the People may say a word, but it doesn't reach a lot of people So if you were to say something really nasty it doesn't take a genius to block that and not have it reach a bunch of people This reporter kept insisting to Elon that this was on the rise with no factual basis for it that other people said it And then he said but I don't look at the feed He said so you're telling me that there's more hate speech that you've seen, but you just admitted to me that you haven't looked at the four You've eaten three months and it was just like this completely weird thing I just had mother in a lie You caught him in a lie He caught him in a lie and this is thing if you're a journalist Just cut it down the middle Come with prepared with facts. Listen stop taking a position either way. I want to connect one dot Which is that he filled in His own narrative even though the data wasn't necessarily there in the same way that you know We kind of filled in our narrative about San Francisco with the Bob Lee You know murder being another example Disclamor on it We didn't put it in here. We didn't hold on a second. We so we knew we didn't know and furthermore We're taking great pains this week to correct the record and explain what we now know Yeah, we're putting on it It's sort of hard to be intellectually honest This is just intellectual honesty Honestly, you're you're you're going soft to your freeberg. You're getting gasslet by all these people I'm okay. I guess up anyone. I think the guy the guy totally the guy totally had zero data By the way when you're journalist you're supposed to report on data and evidence So he's certainly you know, I think completely Just replacing Bob Lee with Don Carmaniani. It's the same story. Yeah Is this that Don Don happened to survive guys. I love I love you, but I gotta go. Goodbye Here's what Maxwell from mother I've had fun There's been a lot of discussion about the future of San Francisco and the death has quickly become politicized Has that caused any division or disagreement from what you've seen or has that Not been the case the press is gleeful right now. They're gleeful like oh my god You know what just like the right was gleeful with Jesse Smolette Having gotten himself beaten up or you know setting up his own All right everybody for the Sultan of science currently conducting Experiments on a beach to see exactly how burned he can get with his SPF 200 under an umbrella wearing a sun shirt and pants Freeberg freeberg on the beach was the same outfit astronauts wear with the two spacewalks Hey, stable diffusion make me an image of David freeberg wearing a full body bathing suit covered in SPF 200 under three umbrellas all of a sudden beach Thank you for the dictator Chamaff Polyhapatia creating regulations and the regular the regulator you can call me the regular the regulator See it tonight when we'll eat our orchalans what's left of them the final four or five orchalans Inexistence otherwise. I'm putting you on the be list today if you're alive. I will be there. I'll be there I promise I promise I promise can't wait to be there and The rainman himself namaste didn't even get to putting Ron Oh I think you should ask auto GPT how you can eat more endangered animals Yes, we've have a plan for you Yes, and then have it go kill those animals Give it a real world put something on the dark web to go kill the remaining rhinos and bring them to Chamaff's house for Pokemon I don't think rhinos are tasty Wasn't that the plava movie? It was a oh did you guys see is cocaine bear out yet? It was a Matthew Broderick Marlin Brando movie right where they're doing the takeoff on the godfather was the fresh Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, it's like a conspiracy to eat Endangered animals. Yes, the freshman The project came out in 1990 Yeah, Marlin Brando did it with Matthew Broderick and like Bruno Kirby they actually they that was the whole thing. Oh, no Kirby. That's a deep hole actually They were eating endangered animals. What do you think heat to is that gonna be good? Sax I know he's one of your favorite films me too It's awesome. Is there a sequel coming? They're gonna do heat to and the novel's already come out Adam drive So I saw the novel. Yeah, he's amazing. He's one of those movies where when it comes on you just can't stop watching So we eat to screener best bank robbery slash shoot out in movie history, you know that is literally the best high film ever Like it's up there with like the Joker with reservoir dogs the the Joker in that Batman movie where he robs the bank like I mean What I love you guys all right? Love you besties and For blah blah blah blah blah blah blah. This is gonna be all in pockets 124 if you want to go to the fan meet-ups and hang out with other I'll stay there. Bye bye Well, like your winners ride Brain man David And it said we open-source it to the fans and they've just got crazy with I'm going on Oh What Besties We should all just get a room and just have one big huge or two because they're all It's like this like sexual tension that we just need to release that Oh