All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Industry veterans, degenerate gamblers & besties Chamath Palihapitiya, Jason Calacanis, David Sacks & David Friedberg cover all things economic, tech, political, social & poker.

E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!

E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!

Wed, 04 Nov 2020 10:06

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Show Notes:

0:00 The besties & Phil Hellmuth on Trump’s early lead, live betting odds, the Latinx reversal

10:09 Sacks intros political expert Michael Newman on vote tally timing discrepancies, why some states skew a certain way early & more

20:33 Assessing the 180 in the gambling markets & equity markets towards a pro-Trump outcome

24:18 SurveyMonkey Chief Research Officer Jon Cohen joins the show to talk about polling updates from 2016 to 2020, understanding the race so far, electoral college & more

41:51 Biden losing Florida, tax policy, cultural repudiation of the elites in 2020

50:43 Chamath on the stupidity of the establishment, socialism, Democratic ideology for 2024 if Biden loses

55:40 Mid-show predictions, Jason goes off on Trump

1:07:58 What will happen in the time until we have a clear winner, Trump as a middle finger

1:17:55 Brad Gerstner joins the show to talk about stock futures, what the Democrats keep getting wrong - coastal elites losing touch with normal people, rebuking lockdowns

1:38:24 Reviewing the race swing state by swing state

1:47:28 Bill Gurley joins the show to talk about divisiveness, urban/rural rapture & more

1:55:53 Pete Buttigieg as the future of the Democratic Party, Chamath calls out the democratic leaders

2:00:43 Reconciling middle America & the coastal elites, respecting each other’s differences, understanding Prop 22

2:11:34 Diagnosing states that flipped from Biden to Trump, anti-business California state propositions failing, union impact on legislation

2:23:01 Senate races, market talk, which Democratic candidate had the best chance of beating Trump, voting for character over policy

2:34:32 Jason & Sacks debate Russian election interference legitimacy

2:41:34 Sacks unveils his Trump Derangement Score tracker, updated outcome scenarios & more

2:51:51 Trump declaring victory could tank markets, live reaction to Joe Biden’s election night address

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Hello everybody. Welcome. We are live at the all in headquarters and the all in podcast is now live. We have 63 people watching already and bear with us while we get the besties on the line. I'll be doing my introductions in just a moment after I tweet this. But it is an eventful night and we had to start early. Because. Uh, it's looking like this could be another shocker. And I am not being facetious here. I am not happy about this, obviously. But Trump looks like he's been underestimated. Again, this is not a blowout. We are going live early. Umm. This could be a shocker, folks. OK. So with me early on, the pod is regular David Friedberg. David, you're watching this early action and what's your early reaction to what we're seeing? You know, Trump's moved we there's no nothing definitive yet, but he's moved in the results and he's moving markets. We're seeing Forex markets show a sharp indication. That Trump has a real shot at winning here. Treasury markets. And as Phil Hellmuth will share with US betting markets as well. Alright, well, more it is more of a nail biter than a game seven of the warriors. Cavs. So here we go. Nail biter guys. And I'm just going to say this, the UK markets had it first they he was five to two. You could you could get Trump at five to two, 2 1/2 to one, then it hit five to four and I thought that was quite. Crazy, you're watching CNN, you're watching these networks and they're saying, Oh my God, Biden's winning this. No, they're not even in the right neighborhood. I'll never watch a network again on election night. And now the market. From 5 minutes ago, £368 million wagered 368,000,000 pounds. Trump is now a 3 to 10 favorite. OK, so for people, Phil, who are not gamblers, if you bet $3 and dollars, you bet $3. No, no, Jason, you have to understand. If you bet $13.00 OK, you don't get 13 back. You only get 10 back. OK, now if you want to bet Biden, it's seven to four. So if I bet $70.00, if I bet $40, I can get $70.00 back on Biden. Now, the shocker is right around 6:28 PM. The betting odds the markets would have been in Biden's favor for three straight months. I've been live posting them on my Twitter all day. The worst I saw was was Trump was was Biden was minus $1.25 still a big favor to win and then boom. And you know, there are people in my house that are actually crying. You know, I'm very more, much more in the middle of this thing, but all of a sudden Trump it all of a sudden it was five to four, then it was even, and then all of a sudden Trump was nearly. A 2 to one favorite. I'm getting live information from my friends. Right now. I'm seeing that. That it's a it's a little bit lower on some of these sites. I saw 267. That's for a $200.00 bet. So he's a pretty big favorite. I saw the lowest I've seen is 217. But Jason, if you're watching the lot odds and I put some stuff on my Twitter, it's amazing how it went from, you know, minus $1.70, you know, all the way down, minus a 30. Then it came all the way up to minus $1.70. This is crazy. And and I've seen this movie before, in 2016, actually. OK, so we all know that you need 270 electoral votes to win and that there were a couple of states that were critical for Trump to win. And it seems like those states that Trump was critical to win, he has now won. So let's bring in David Sacks. David, we just turned on the live stream and boy, is this a turn of events that I don't think any of us except for maybe you. But you were very pessimistic on the last maybe three or four all in podcast. You're watching these results come in. The betting markets have totally flipped to Trump. What are you seeing and what can we expect tonight? What are you looking for? Yeah, I mean, it's looking just like a 2016. I mean, you're right that I was looking at the polls in the last few pods that we've done and there was no way to say anything other than, you know, Trump was the was the underdog. But at the same time, I I still thought that Trump had a really good shot because I was watching both candidates, so on YouTube all the time. They both were doing live events. I wasn't watching it with the commentary. I wasn't watching the clips. I was watching Trump do these rallies. I was watching Biden do these parking lot events and I would see Trump do 4-5 events a day flying from tarmac to tarmac on Air Force One, having these huge crowds. I saw him do this event in Butler, PA over the weekend. It looked to me like there was 10s of thousands of people there. And I remember Trump saying a line like, you know, this doesn't seem like a second place crowd and you know, it's one of those Trump lines, but you know it. To put in my mind this idea, you know, he's got a point. Whatever the polls say, we're seeing 10s of thousands of people show up at these events who are fanatical, I mean just fanatical for Trump. And so you always had to think that he had a chance of pulling off an upset just like 2016. I will say what I said on our text earlier. Donald Trump ate the COVID virus and killed it with his body. And then he stood in front of the White House and ripped his shirt off and let us all know that he is our leader. He did not get elected. He claimed victory beginning in 2016 and he has not and will not let go since then. And I think it is that cult of personality, that cult personality draws so many people and that are just, you know, feeling like they need change and they need leadership and they don't need something from the old school and. He he stood up and he showed us that this whole thing is a is a fake. COVID is a fake, government is fake, people are fake, the media is fake. Numbers. I'm getting some late numbers here, you guys. He's now a duck minus $1.59 to win Pennsylvania, and they took every other number off the board. However, if you're a Biden person, Jason, the number is only 2.17 right now. So. But wow, the polls are pollsters were miles off on this, and this is just amazing. And it seems like from what we're hearing from the reporting is that the pollsters did not understand the Latin, or I guess Latin X is a way to describe a group of people who actually don't think exactly the same. I've always had a weird understanding of this terminal annex, which seems to come from the woke left, but Cubans? Puerto Ricans? Mexicans. These are different countries. They're not all the same waylands Venezuelans. This is not a monoculture just because they all speak the same language. And we're seeing something very different happened in Florida right now, where male Cubans maybe are voting very differently than what pollsters expected. Bestie Chamath is now fresh off a tight haircut, and he's here on the pod. Hear me. We've got bestie Phil as our first bestie. Guestie of the night. Bestie P. How are you, STP shamatha? You and I, we we shouldn't talk about this. This is about politics. But you and I were just filming high stakes poker in Las Vegas on Friday night. It was great to see you, bestie. Is there any indication you can give us besides? I mean, of course there's a presidential election that is going to determine the future of humanity, but more importantly, how did you each do in the high stakes poker game? The biggest, the biggest, the biggest part of the night was around 400K, maybe 500. They played between me and der. Detur. And he won. He did not win the hand. Ohh my Lord that one go to go and it was, I think it was beautifully, beautifully played. I think Doug Polk will definitely do a short video clip on it. I did a I did a very very sneaky 3 bet pre flop turn check River Overbluff and got him to call. Oh my Lord, a little set bomb I'm guessing but here we go. Jason, I can't wait since I'm here to promote, promote, promote everything I promote. You can only watch these episodes of high stakes poker. A lot of players favorite show. You can only watch them on the poker go app. They're coming out December 16th. May chamath. Phil Ivy, Tom Dwan, Ben Lamb. A lot of your a lot of your heroes take it away. Can't wait, can't wait to. And I have a subscription to that. All in. I'm sorry, the poker go app. It's it's well worth it. David Sacks, you have one of your recording. Friends on the pod, why don't you introduce, uh, one of your consulting friends and and we'll have him tee up what we think the possible scenarios are and where we're at right now at this very moment. It is 657 in California. Yeah. So Michael Newman works for me as a researcher and he's a is a political scientist, I guess you could say. And I've known him since college and he's very steeped in these, a lot of these races. I don't know if he's. Yeah, I have been obsessively following politics since the Reagan election of 1980, so I wasn't alive then. So no, I'm afraid I'm I was only 10, but I was already a political obsessive and, as you can imagine, a real hit with the ladies as well. So tell us what what are the key states we need to focus in on here, and which one of them have enough reporting for us to? Sort of put them in a column and then move on and understand the path to victory for Trump or Biden. Yes. Well, I mean, depending upon which network or news organization you're following, they are either calling, calling a lot of states or they're being very conservative about their calls. I mean, NBC has still not called Florida for Trump, but there's really no path for Biden to win that state. So you can put that safely in the Trump column. He has just taken the lead in North Carolina after trailing. All right. We've got about 88% of the vote in now and I suspect he's home free as is the Republican incumbent senator there. Can I can I can I just can I just ask a question. I mean isn't it typically the case that the counts from the most populous. Urban areas come last, and those tend to skew more Democrat than Republican. That sometimes happens. It depends on the state. Some states have their rural areas come in last. One of the things that has changed the vote in North Carolina is as the early vote came in as the in person early vote and mail in ballots came in. The last counties that reported that early vote were the rural counties. That's why early on it looked very good for Biden and now it looks like it's trending away from him. Wait a second, North Carolina, according to the New York Times and according to. CNN right now is favoring slightly Biden 49.7% to 49.1% for Trump with 84%. I don't think that's. I don't think that's quite current. I think they're up to about 88%. But again, yeah, it's it's very close. What's interesting is Biden had five potential states where he could have knocked Trump out, Florida Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas. We are the table. We don't. Yeah, Florida's off the table. The others are still on the table, but none of them are trending Biden's direction at the present time. So he yeah, so far, Trump is. Is staying in the hand as as you poker players would would say, he's a he's he's getting the cards he needs to stay in the to stay in the game. But we still have the river to play and the river would be in this case Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania. Texas had an early lead for Biden, which was crazy to see. Right now it's got Donald Trump at 50.3% Biden at 48.3% guys again. So that's going to normalize. I I go back to this one. Very critical thing. The reason why Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania right now are Trump is because you count the the when the county is counted, you can pass the votes and you can report and if you have 25,000 people in a county versus Allegheny County which has like. I don't know, hundreds of thousands or a million plus people. It just takes longer. Yes. No, I listen, I don't characterize Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania at all. I think one of the reasons why Michigan right now looks so red is because they're counting today's vote first. A lot of these other states that like Florida that had the option because their legislature allows them to do this, they counted all that early vote in advance and they dumped it in one big pile as soon as the polls. Closed in the in the various counties so that's why you saw early on a blue mirage there. What you're seeing in a place like Michigan right now is probably a red mirage because it's it's today's vote which was going to skew Trump because of the because of the way he presented it to his people. He Florida was the one state thank goodness for his sake that he. Encouraged people to vote early and by mail and the other states, he encouraged his people to vote today. So here's a here's a stat in Pennsylvania, I'm on the Secretary of State's reporting dashboard. They've counted only 12% of the mail in ballots. Which is. And the total mail in ballots is 2.5 million. Yeah. Which is huge, right. And they've only should be a majority of the vote, I would imagine. Yeah. Yeah. And they've and they've only counted 24%, actually. Sorry, they've only. Yeah, they've only counted a handful of precincts at this point. 1/4 of the precincts, right. Here's something I don't understand. So Nick Carlson from was it like Business Insider? He just tweeted. 10 minutes ago that North Carolina Biden is ahead with 99% of the vote counted and Biden has a less than .2% lead. But it's 9000 votes. Well, that. I mean that's. That would be a huge problem for Trump and that would be lost. North Carolina, I listen. I think a loss in any of those five states, Florida Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio or Texas is probably by the way, guys. I just want to give a shout out to Nathan, who's listening here all the way from Sri Lanka. He's listening. He just texted me. Right now the odds are three to one in the betting market. So I mean obviously the networks I realized are completely useless. I stopped watching him a long time ago when they had Biden way ahead in Florida and the odds were 12:50 against. Right now if you want to bet, Trump is a 3 to one favorite and and there's been billions of dollars spent in England, Australia all over the world. He's a 3 to one favorite. It looks like it's real to me and just and just to just to build your side of the case, NASDAQ futures. That being SNP futures falling and the 10 and 30 year falling, remembe ripping. These are all pro Trump trades and and the euro. The euro collapse. The euro dollar falling, falling sharply once the markets turned towards Trump. Well here's what they're reacting to is Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Trump is all up big time now but again this this that lacks a very basic understanding of how county reporting is happening in these highly populous you know, or these sort of sort of these these bimodality distributed states where they have. A bunch of suburban and rural vote that's fast to count, and the big places, for example, like you know you're not going to see Milwaukee and Green Bay report until probably close to midnight. So the question is why? Why are the betting markets so pro Trump then what do they know that we don't know? I will say this, let me say this, Jason. I mean if you're like there, you're talking about billions of dollars, right? And so all you had to do was design a system to figure out how to calculate votes earlier and make a couple $100 million. OK. These are the smartest people in the world. There's hundreds of millions of dollars, billions of dollars at stake. They obviously do a 10 times better than any other site than in the other network. So this information. I mean I give a a friend of mine posted, hey, I'm playing two to one on on Twitter on my other friend Beth, $400,000 to $800,000 and now he looks like a genius. Somebody knows something that we don't know. Well Trump just on Bovada. Trump just moved to minus 600. Michigan unbelievable. Minus like he's looks like he's ahead in Michigan. But again we have to see Detroit and there's there's a bunch of places in Michigan let's let's let's let's bathe N so here's the North Carolina Secretary of State Dashboard and they're showing 2/3 of the county then you can actually see by county when you go into their their dashboard the you know tomorrow the the larger counties are partially reported most of the smaller counties are fully reported. 63% total with, you know, Biden ahead by literally 1000 votes right now across 2.522 million to 2.521 million. Wow. But what percent reported is that, I mean it's 63% of the counties have completely reported and so the remaining counties, if you look at the reporting status, the remaining counties that are partially reported. There's a mix of rural and some of the urban counties, you know, durhams in there, partially reported. So there is a mix. It's not Durham should be a Biden county. The research triangle is upscale, well educated professionals that I think are the the backbone of the Democrats coalition in a state like North Carolina. Now they have absentee votes that are counted, and they have so far counted. 3.3 million. Absentee, one stop votes and a million votes by mail. But that's how many came in. It actually shows that only. 50 I see. Yeah, OK, that makes sense. Trump is now ahead in Ohio by two thirds. 2/3 of the votes were opposed the link into the zoom chat so Nick can pull it up on the screen please. I I need to get an understanding of something very basic here for the audience who's not degenerate gamblers are. Is there a chance here Phil and Chamath gambling experts both, that people had put early money on Biden and are now covering or hedging some of those bets. Is that a possibility here? Yes. OK, season. Jason, the line is minus a dollar, minus 410 on Pinnacle right now let me just double check that source. So what, what Phil is saying, Jason? It's like, yes, there's going to be a bunch of essentially covering now that covering will swing the line. But I think what Phil is also saying is when a line moves this violently, literally what we've seen in the last 35 minutes is both the equity markets, the currency markets and the betting markets flip 180 degrees from where they have been not just all day, but frankly where they have been probably for the last few months. And that's what I was saying to my. For three months straight right now Biden has been a favorite anywhere between 3 to one favorite at one point all the way to maybe you know 50% favorite. And all of a sudden today the lowest I thought saw was $1.35 and I was kind of shocked and the next thing you know boom Trump's a three to four to one favorite. So and and I'm looking at CNN and I'm looking at these networks and they're still they still have Biden ahead and I'm like what is going on there way that's that's that's the next thing we need to to take care of. There's a business for you is somehow we can deliver the right data on elections quickly. There you go, Saxon. Yeah, well, I think the betting markets know something we don't know, because Trump is just, you know, if you look at like, the live stream on Twitter or the New York Times or something. Trump just slightly took the lead in Ohio, but that's the state he's supposed to win in North Carolina, it looks like with over 99% reporting, it looks like he lost by 9000 votes. By the way, a 9000 vote margin would probably trigger an automatic recount. Of North Carolina. And there's like 100,000 absentee ballots there. I don't know if those have been counted yet. OK. So, I mean, let's let's pause for one second on this, everybody. North Carolina is one of the four or five states Trump has to win in order to have a victory, right, Michael, I absolutely agree with that. He had to have those five Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio and Texas. So we have Florida. He's got now there's four left. There's four left. George. George is a very slow counting state. We really don't know all of it. Then it could be out for all we know, but so we leave Georgia on the side. So now we've got four states we can work with. North Carolina is in Biden's pocket by just a hair. That could change and it would trigger a recount, which would take days to weeks. Yes, now there are three states. Let's go through them systematically, 1 by 1. Michael. OK, Ohio was the biggest surprise of the night when Biden built an early lead there, although again, a bit of a blue mirage based upon. The fact that the mail in vote and the early vote came in so strong for the Democrats this year because they emphasized it and the Republicans kind of fought against it. Michael, Michael with 49% of the vote in Ohio, OK, He had a right now Biden had a massive lead and he had about a 400,000 vote lead with half the correct and we looked at the betting odds. He was five to one underdog to win the state. So something doesn't add up there and you can you can say, alright, some of that is all the early voting went for Biden. We know that to be a fact, but there's something else there. OK. I'm just looking at the results for Ohio. We'll stay on Ohio for one more moment and then we have another gas who just jumped on. Ohio is currently showing Donald Trump with two point rounding it up 2.4 million votes to 2.2 million, slightly rounding up for Joe Biden 52% to 47% with 78% reporting. Does that mean we feel comfortable with Trump? Winning Ohio and less all of Cleveland is outstanding. I would say that's a Trump state. Yeah. OK. We now have John Cohen on the line. John is a member of the SurveyMonkey team. John, welcome to the All in pod. Can you hear us? Thank you so much. I I'm. I'm sorry. I didn't hear what was going on. I don't know how much you've been disparaging pollsters so far. So let me know what we were waiting for you. We were waiting for you to get here. Tell us as we start. What your prediction was earlier today, well, we're very clear to say that we're doing measurements, not predictions. That said, the measurements that we are doing clearly pointed to Biden advantages across the board. But we didn't have we so far. We have no surprises. You know, we had Florida had been Trump +2 basically all week going to dead even. You know, coming into the Election Day itself, we don't know where the final votes will be. Most analysts think that it's in Trump's camp. It may end up there. But it's super close. We had Georgia close. We had North Carolina close although and North China had been closing, it had been a big Biden lead. It was down to under two points with the Senate, you know, kind of even closer than that in some of our data. So you know, so far there's no obvious surprise here. Like, damn, the polls were really wrong. Certainly ours, you know, it's, it's early though. We're not declaring victory on those. Obviously there's a lot to watch, but nothing really to surprise, you know, us giving them the number so far. What about Ohio and Georgia? Io pretty consistently in Trump's camp we had him up four so it's trending that way now we had it as close as two points for Trump. I mean again I haven't mentioned the word margin of error that's in my professional obligation and duty to mention it. It's around three points I believe 2 1/2 in Ohio. So close but we always had it in Trump's camp again Biden that wasn't part of Biden's you know any of the past victory that they the campaign was counting on so you know no big deal but we went from having a early night to now we're. You're for sure in for a really late night here, John. Let me ask you that one of the most basic questions that I've had, which is what did we learn from 2016? And tell me, what exactly did people try to fix? Like what was the thing that everybody got wrong? And what changed? Well, the biggest thing that pulls fixed was how they adjust their polls by education. But we see in polling, no matter how they're conducted, whether online as we do a SurveyMonkey or still on the telephone, which most media pollsters do, is you get people who with more formal education to answer those surveys in far greater proportions than you do people with lower education. So the biggest thing you got to do and, well, look, we always did it. So we weren't in the among the state pollsters who kind of failed, I think, you know, kind of negligently. Adjust my education at all we always justify education but we what we fail to notice in 2016 was there was an increasing gap between those with postgraduate degrees and those with BA's. They've always been both to pro Democratic group but the gap in 2016 was abnormally large a fixed to our polls which I just point out weren't you know kind of were actually standouts in the in the upper Midwest in terms of showing it as a close race not clear of Clinton victories we broke apart post grads and grads into 2 distinct. Categories and that released kind of about a point and 1/2 of unforced air in our polling for 2016. So that's fixed. We've used it to good effect again this time around. We weren't showing what all the other national polls were showing. We've had this between a four and six point national lead. Again, we'll get quickly into why national results don't matter, but you all know that all too well. Everyone knows that all too well. But we've had it kind of more narrow and that plays out in the states that I mentioned. We had Florida tide, not a 4.55 point, five advantage elsewhere. You know, but we'll see how it plays out in the Midwest. We also had Wisconsin. What was our final margin there? I think it was, you know, kind of nine and 9 1/2 points, not the 17 points that you saw from my former colleagues at the Washington Post, ABC News. So we've always had it a little bit tighter, but it, again, it plays how it's going to play out in these States and so far no surprises. But the night is early and I have a healthy dose of pulsars paranoia. Yeah. I don't know if that answered your question well enough, but that was the main thing people did. It's really helpful. But now take off your pollster measure. You know, Chief research officer hat for a second and put on just the American hat. What does it mean? When, you know we had effectively a repudiation of the establishment in 2016, and despite everything that's happened over the last four years, we may be on the brink of another repudiation again. If you you know where you're there to measure the pulse of what's going on, but less in sort of measurement speak and just more in just plain American English. Speak, John. What? Like, what's going on if this happens again? See, you're you're absolutely right. There's something major. I would also like to caveat it. We are looking once again at if Trump wins, it's because of the Electoral College, like, he is going to lose the popular vote. There are still far more Americans and American voters who voted today and you know, kind of over the past several weeks who would prefer Joe Biden to be president. So again, we can't characterize with the broad brush the American voting population when this is about you effectively. I hate to call it a quirk, but this is about our system of of vote. Tallying and the President you know, to pull back your point about kind of there is something major here. The fact that many people you know, some of us might be friends with can't understand why this isn't 100 to 0 race failed to understand that, you know, the president's base isn't small. It is. You know, we've had it 44 to 46% approving of his job performance for many years now. Like he has a completely durable solid floor. He also has a high ceiling, right. So he was never going to win the popular vote this time around, but he had a chance at that. Electoral, you know, squeaking out another Electoral College win because he's been so stable. You know, this is a president who, you know, kind of up Trump now had an NC thank you for the chat window. So I think you're right that we need to understand more about what is the componentry of that 45% that they would support Trump when the other 55% are so dead set against him and see it as something really wrong with the country. So we saw the country. What have you guys done to though understand? The people that are voting for Trump better because I think that they are protesting. And they're protesting a lot. And I think that, you know, if we didn't listen to them in 16, I think it's almost criminal to not listen to them in 2020. So what are they? What are they saying? What are they rejecting or what is it that they want? Because at the end of the day, you know, I think his incompetence can't really be debated, competence versus incompetence. I think what we can debate is he's a vessel. And in that I think that it's incredibly important what's happening irrespective of what happens today because. We were supposed to walk into a landslide. We're not. As you said, we're gonna be a nail biter. What it what are? What are they using him as a vessel to communicate to everybody else? That's a really good question. I mean some of. That will depend on, you know, a closer analysis of the surveys ours, where we talked to more than a million voters and the exit polls that are being conducted by two separate organizations say, well, what's the, what are the storylines that come out of the election? You know, one of the things that's being reported early is there's a much tighter Hispanic vote in Florida than many early polls, you know, predicted. How will that play out as we start to get votes, you know, coming out in Texas? How will it be in Arizona, say, Arizona looking positively for Biden and Mark Kelly in the Senate, you know, in Arizona, you know, is it, is it really Hispanic votes? They're driving some Trump strength in these states, or you kind of. Is it the obsession that the news media has had for the past four years around the kind of Trump middle-aged, white male voter with less than college education who has been displaced by, you know, technological and industrial trends over the past 20 years? I think it's going to depend on what that voting coalition looks like for Trump. And it's more diverse than I think we've been focusing on for four years. I think you're saying an incredibly important thing. I think that that was a ruse and I've, I've always thought that that was ********. It's not some undereducated Rube that's running around voting for this guy. I think that there are there are people up and down the the age spectrum, the socioeconomic spectrum, and this is what I mean by he has become a vessel for so many different messages. And I think we really have to start figuring out what the hell these messages actually mean. Because if Biden loses to your point, maybe in Florida, it's a repudiation of socialism, OK? But in Pennsylvania, it's going to be something else. In Michigan, it's going to be something else. In Ohio, it's going to be something else for him to keep winning. Right. And and I just don't think that there's a consistent idea. And it's very dismissive to say that. I'm not saying you are, but I'm saying, you know, that idea that it was. An out of work X factory worker, you know, in rural Ohio that was protesting. This is going to be much bigger than that because even if Biden wins the popular vote, until we figure out how to rebalance, balance the Electoral College in a completely, you know. New way or just get rid of it altogether, we're going to have to live with understanding how some folks in these extremely pivotal states are pushing back. Are they pushing back on political correctness? You know, that's one thing that I've always thought, I think that there's a huge vote here against. Culture. Cancel culture. All of that stuff? Absolutely. Absolutely. And lockdowns, I think those are the underreported lockdowns are the, I think, the biggest one of the biggest drivers. So, no, go ahead, John. Go ahead, John. I was gonna say one of the components here that we have to pay a lot of attention is gender, right? Kind of, you know, the storyline for a long time and you think about, you know, kind of Republican democratic politics is that, you know, we talk about black voters and Hispanic voters talking about them as if they're monoliths. What we have seen consistently over the course of the year is that Trump does much better among black men and Hispanic. Men that he does among black women and Latinas. And that is just kind of like, you know, whereas black women are 95.5, you know, he nears 20% among black men. It blends into the what we've the 9010 we've always seen. Look, but look, these, these are measurements. These, these are measurements. I don't think they're telling you the whys of anything. And I think for the why's you have to go a lot deeper. I mean, first of all, let's let's talk about the lockdown issue. Can we just pull up that tweet, Nick? I mean, so this is what I said. Back in May. This was like months ago, before the election even hit, you know, which is if the woke left insists on permanent lockdowns, Trump will have an issue that supersedes the incompetence of COVID response. Because I think, you know, we all, we all agree on that, which is whether our lives and livelihoods belong to politicians to meet her out in dribs and drabs as they see fit. And this was back when Elon was being shut out of his factory in Fremont. And then there was this hairdresser and named Shelly Luther in Texas, who. Was basically. Put on trial for opening up her hair salon and the the judge wanted her to to to grovel and beg for forgiveness. And this was the beginning of the rebellion over lockdowns. And it was so obvious back then that lockdowns weren't going to fly, they weren't sustainable. They were too politically unpopular, they weren't going to work. And and and by the way, if it was something A cause of the left agreed with like you know BLM rally or something like that, then you were allowed to do it. You know, it was that. All standard around, you know, doing things that were essential. And so, you know that this insistence on lockdowns even after the public had really repudiated them, I think was a major issue for for Trump. And it was crazy to me that Biden was still insisting on lockdowns, you know, still. I mean that is his official position. I don't think it's the only reason why he's in trouble right now, but I think it's a big one. I think if he, if Trump reaches. The blue wall again of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania lockdowns is the biggest reason why, because those are three states, yeah, that had extensive and still have extensive lockdowns. Hurts. It hurts people. I'll here, I'll read you a tweet and I won't name who it's from. It's from a farmer in in the corn belt who's well followed on Twitter. Believe it or not. There's a whole AG Twitter community and he says, well, it's the day. Does this country turn down the road to be like Venezuela or do we continue on the road of capitalism? And he's had this acute feeling that he's kind of vocalized on Twitter for, for months now on how painful the Locket lockdowns have been on him and his family and his business and on the community. And it just feels like overreach to a lot of people that the recognition that you know, the left might be using to justify the decision is just not there. That the the impact, the near term impact that folks are feeling is what's there. And that's driving a lot of behavior right now boys, all markets are now up. Everything is green. Dow futures, S&P 500 futures, NASDAQ futures. Oil is up, gold is down. And there were some guys that made some heavy bets against the dollar going into this thinking we were going to have massive inflation with Biden policy coming up and some big fund managers that went really big on on shorting the dollar this last week and the dollar is up right now. By the way, we should, we should make sure at some point tonight to talk about these very important Senate races because it's not just Trump versus Biden that there's also a bunch of Hickenlooper won in Colorado and Colorado. But there have been some, you know, some of the Republicans who look to be in big trouble like Lindsey Graham have have pulled it out and have won. And so it's looking like the Senate is still very much in play. I would say as big a favorite as Biden was the. Senate shifting from Republican to Democrat, where I say that was considered as equally big a favorite and that that may not happen now. So we should make sure to talk about that at some point. North Carolina right now is 49.8% to 49% for Biden, 2.6 million versus 2.58. Ohio is at 2.4 to 2.25152% to 47%. Trump is beating Biden. I have a question for John Cohen. Done. Let's go back to sort of your understanding as you've been measuring different trends. Have you measured? Peoples sympathy towards lockdowns on a state by state level. And then second question is have you measured peoples sympathy to cancel culture at a state by state level and by the way you're on mute. So if you want to just take yourself off. Thank you. We we have not done anything on cancel culture. We've done a lot on the coronavirus. We've been tracking that actually in three countries since mid February and we have a state by state look and what's interesting is we asked the question like this is primarily an economic issue or a primary. Health, health issue and those two have been running neck and neck but the health you kind of more people on average say it's a health issue than an economic one. Trump with Trump supporters overwhelming say the crisis is one that's financial not health related. So there's always been that but it's been like a 4555 gap there. So we've been measuring it state by state but there's a solid core of people and it gets to David's point about why what are they focused on, what is the what is affecting them and their you know pocketbooks. It is the you know lockdowns and the. Kind of clamping down and what is this economic crisis? Not a healthcare one, even though that's what we all say that they should follow mean. There was a there was a there was a fantastic line that the Democrats coined which essentially said something to the tune. Saxophone. You'll tell me if I get this wrong, but it was socialism for the rich and rugged individualism for the for the rest of us is essentially sort of their grab bag phrase for for this election cycle and sort of to frame a lot of policies, but when you have. In these states, again, if we say, this cuts along socioeconomic lines, but then maybe bleeds into. College and even, you know, graduate level educated folks. Is there a vote here for rugged individualism and just leave me the **** alone? There certainly could be. I want to go back to what David said about measuring versus the why because I mentioned gender to point out a big difference that we're seeing across racial groups across the levels of education. But I'm you know we're we're polling every day so you guys have the right why question you know send it to me you know sent to Zander we'll we'll we'll ask it. You know we pulled 9000 people today on you know kind of their willingness to accept the results and so we'll be putting that out you know tomorrow we have a we'll have an exit poll running every day from here on to certainly till we get a result. So you have the question you want to ask, send along we'll we'll, we'll get you the data at the state level. All right, John, we very branch appreciate you coming on the pod and we will be checking SurveyMonkey is amazing data as we go. I'm going to switch now and just, John, thank John. Thank you. And Zander, thanks for hooking that up. Thanks, John. Thanks, guys. And we'll have some more bestie guests coming up, some fan favorites from the Twitter and the poker group. I just want to point out right now that it's very interesting to see that Fox has Biden at 129 electoral votes and Trump. 109 and. Some of the other networks have it much lower. How did the networks make these decisions of when to call a state because it's too early according to many to call Florida. But we're sitting here with a pretty clear understanding of where Florida is at. Does anybody have any thoughts on that of, well, I think they're airing on the side of extreme caution because of the strange year that it is and the fact that there is all this, we had 100. Over 100 million votes banked early through the mail or through early in person voting and nobody sure how many more mail ballots there. According to one side I looked at, there were still 27 million ballots outstanding. Now some of those are redundant ballots, like David's father-in-law who got 3 ballots in the mail in Pennsylvania, and a lot of those are probably going in the trash, but there could be another 5 to 10 million of those to come in that are postmarked by today. Many states will accept them after the election as long as they're postmarked by Election Day. So they're probably being very, very careful that they don't make a premature call. Of course, they all have PTSD about what happened in 2000 when they first prematurely called Florida for Al Gore, then prematurely called it for George W Bush, and we spent the next 37 days trying to figure out what the hell happened in Florida. So I think they're going to err on the side of extreme caution across the board, although I feel like the margin in Florida at this point is insurmountable. Insurmountable now, right? Florida, Florida is over. Florida is over. It's about now it's about, it's about Ohio. By the way, the betting markets have just moved again big time. So Donald Trump was at minus 600, now he's minus 250 on bravado. Phil, what do you think about that? Yeah, snapping back, I will say, let me, let me address what Jake Jason was talking about a few seconds ago and that's it. You know, basically Florida even the New York Times had them at at 6:00 PM at 95% to go to Trump at 95%. It was a New York Times site. My wife and I looked it up and the betting odds had him at over 12:50. This was at 5:30. This was two hours ago. So I mean, I just think there's a huge inefficiency with with the way that I think it was over as soon as the Miami-Dade dump showed that Biden only won the early vote by 9 points. I mean, Hillary won it by 29 in 2016 and she lost the state. So how much of this do we think has to do with tax policy? People in Florida are retiring. We have the AOC gang we have on Elizabeth Warren, Florida. It's his beloved stay T as a place. OK, so, so hometown favorite Mar-a-lago, I get that. But you have so many retirees and we we have this bifurcation of how taxes should work in the United States. So I just want to open that up for the entire group to discuss of art. Are we seeing old people? Are we seeing people who are concerned about taxes because we have had a flight? In the last couple of years of people from high tax states to low tax states. Is this about taxes do you think? Let's start with you Friedberg. No one wants to pay taxes. The **** I'm like no one going to raise their hand and say I want to pay taxes. So like. But, I mean, there's, there's a moment where taxes don't matter if they're wrong. But if you're Romney, Romney was in favor or taxes and he, you know, he he didn't win any any of these elections like the way that that Trump looks like he's going to. I think that the the traditional Republican messages message of taxes is sort of necessary but not sufficient. Trump obviously brought a whole set of issues that previous Republicans hadn't. Had a broad and I think that you I think you have to look at 2016 separately from 2020. And so starting with 2016, I think the big issue that Trump that no Republican really had ever figured out except maybe Pat Buchanan in 20 years ago, was the trade issue with China. You know, we forget that in the 1970s when the great Chinese economic reformer Deng Xiaoping decided to open up the Chinese economy, the average Chinese was making $2.00 a day. And today there are economies is roughly the size of the US Now. You know what? What was the reason for that? Well, we had a bipartisan consensus in this country for 30 or 40 years on the part of both Clintons and both bushes that we should, you know, open them, we should welcome them with open arms. And we opened up our market to Chinese products. We brought them into the World Trade Organization. And then, but that was the start. That was the start of that was the the killer app or the killer issue that Trump figured out and that's what shattered. Blue Firewall in those Rust Belt states. I mean, if you're going to try and figure out going back 2016 why Trump won, you have to explain why he won Michigan. So you're saying our jobs, they took our jobs. But what I'm saying is the manufacturing jobs went out and the fentanyl came in. I mean, that's his argument, and that was a killer argument. I mean, and the proof is in the pudding. It's the proof is that he won these states that Hillary thought were so in the bag that she didn't even bother to campaign there. So that was the big surprise. At 2020 and the issue of taxes, because you're hearing. No, let me explain what's going on in 2020. In my opinion, OK, this is not a partisan explanation, but I think that after the loss in 2016, look, in business we know that when you lose it, when you make a mistake, you make a bad investment or the company does something wrong. You analyze what you did wrong, right? And then you figure out what changes to make. The Democrat Party did not do that. What do they do? They blame Facebook. They blamed on Russian interference. They never really analyze why they lost these Rust Belt States and made changes. Instead, what they began was this hysterical denunciation of Trump. You had this sort of, you know, you sort of had this, this sort of. You know, media culture, tech, industrial complex, who decided that Trump was a an illegitimate president. And, you know, and So what they did is they went all in on impeachment, they went all in on this Russia stuff. And in the process, they created this enormous backlash. And I think that 2020, if 2016 was an economic repudiation of the elites, 2020 is a cultural repudiation of the elites. That is the big issue in 2020. Yeah, I tend to, I tend to. I'm sympathetic to David's view. I don't completely agree with all of it. But just to build on something you said, I don't think, Jason, this has anything to do with taxes. I think that in Florida the if we, if we end up really getting to the bottom of what happened, I think there's a lot of people, older people that probably lived through some version of McCarthyism and immigrants who actually fled really ****** totalitarian countries who were like, you wanna do what here? And I think that there was a lot of people that basically are giving a very clear signal, which is I'm a Democrat, but if you push me to the brink and talk about a socialized nanny state, I'm going to vote Republican. So to David's point, to David's point, if there was an economic repudiation of sort of traditional globalism in 2016 and Donald Trump ends up carrying the day, and today, then it's a repudiation. Of sort of these cultural manifestos and norms that we're swinging to now. The the answer to that may be to say, change the Electoral College because it doesn't represent the majority or the plurality of Americans. I hear that. But in the same way that, you know, we've said for years now that the Republicans will have to change to win the Electoral College or to change to win what's evolving in terms of people's perceptions on social policy, it may actually be the Democrats that. We also have to change, if this doesn't swing hard back in Biden's favor. So, and chamath when you when you made that statement, I think what's particularly prescient is the Democrats believed that because of the demographic shift from white Americans to people of color, Latinos, black Americans, that they were just going to win. All of them. This is this is they assume that if you were, this is the problem with the stupidity of the establishment, like if you take 1000. Brown people and put us in a room. What I will tell you is, just in case, here's a ******* memo for all you white people out there. We're not all the *** **** same. OK, and if you put 1000 black people, here's the memo now for the Democrats and the Republicans, they're not all the same. You can take 1000 Hispanics and it turns out they're not all the same. So maybe, you know, you can take 1000 straight people, 1000 gay people. They're not all the ******* same. So maybe what this means is that we've moved past color and now ideology and social policy and economic and monetary and fiscal, all of these things that the totality of how. A rational, well developed person. Makes a decision. Maybe that's at hand. And before, if we historically only thought, you know, older white men and white women could do it, maybe now it actually applies independent of color and gender. Yeah, I absolutely agree with that. And I would add to that that if if Trump's victory in 2016 laid waste to the Republican establishment, if he wins again tonight, it will lay waste to the democratic establishment and the theory of the case that they've had for 20 years, the sort of. Share an emerging Democratic majority case that they just had to sit back and let demography become destiny and they could just graft an identity politics onto the same neoliberal economic agenda they've been pushing since the late 1980s and it would all just somehow magically produce majority results in the country. They are going to have to go back to the drawing board and and I think get more populist themselves and come up with some kind of version of politics that is. Isn't it more in the Bernie mold? It's it needs to be left but not woke. Isn't it gonna be socialism? It's it probably is going to be socialism, but it needs to not. If you lay waste to the center, you know, you're like, I mean that's basically what happened to the Republicans. And now if you're saying the same is going to happen with the Democrats this time around, you're going to have AC running for president in four years. And she won't be the right brand, though, because she's woke. You guys, you need to share it, brown. You don't need a OC. We need a charismatic Democratic candidate. Somehow Sherrod Brown keeps getting elected in in increasingly red Ohio as an old school gravelly voiced Irish labor Democrat. And somehow Bernie ignited a movement as a very old school, gravelly voiced Jewish Democrat, neither of whom gave a damn about identity politics, really. They were principally concerned with inequality and. Income redistribution. Yeah. I wanna, I wanna take wanna see that happen, but I think that's the only path forward for the demo. Hold on. Let's let me go to Phil because Phil had somebody once you had there and then we'll go to your mouth. Yeah, I wanna say that we needed for the Democrats and they just needed to. I think they needed a very they needed a charismatic, powerful leader with a lot of charisma. I mean, I know that, you know, the I was hanging out with one of the Trump guys that was with him on the plane in the 2016 election. He said that, you know, he outworked Hillary. There's no doubt that he outworked Biden. I mean, this guy's. Going to 7 rallies a day, showing up with a ton of energy, and he has, you know, like him or not, he has a lot of charisma. Also, I can't help but think that you're talking about repeating repudiating. Sorry, I'm getting that word wrong. To me, this is all about, I think a lot of people are really scared of socialism, OK? And I think it's just like even the young people that, you know, even the young people you know who say that they love it. They're looking at their past. In the future and and with and, you know they can, they can still do great things. There's no doubt you can still be a 20 year old and and make a billion dollars by the time you're 30 or 40. And I think with socialism that goes away. I think that. Look, I I I think if Trump does win. I don't think what it means is that you need a person that's at the extreme left to win. I actually counterintuitively would say the the opposite, which is that you need just a more credible centered person. Now that may only be possible if the Democratic Party cleaves in two, and the reality is the Republicans may actually quasi cleaven to independent of whether Trump wins or not anyways. And we'll see, as David said, how some of these Senate seats break because if that goes in a different direction. You know, for example, if Trump wins, but we have, you know, a democratic tie in the Senate, maybe that's not possible. But I think that would say a lot around the need for pragmatic but more youthful leadership. OK, I want to go around the horn right now. What is your gut telling me? Who is going to win, given what we know right now? Everybody, give it a thought. When you're ready, look into the camera and I will call on you. Michael, you're looking into the camera. Who's gonna win if you had to pick one right now? Michael, give us your best guess with this podcast. The winner of the recount in North Carolina, because that would tell me a lot, but. I have increasingly think Trump is going to win. OK, Phil, you're looking in the camera. Who do you think's going to win? We've seen this movie before, except that Hillary was actually 5 to one favorite last time. And I watched these numbers go straight up and now I'm watching the same thing. It seems like, although I will say this, you know, Sachs has been posting some stuff within our channel about the numbers popping up and down. I'm getting texts and they are popping up and down, but still, the lowest I've seen is 2.5 to one. I think Trump wins. Trump wins. Who do you got, sacks? Well, I'm going to assume. Betting markets know something I'm still a little bit unclear on? On North Carolina, because I saw some tweets that Biden had wanted by a few thousand votes. But. The the the North Carolina website is showing. That actually Trump's ahead by like 70,000 votes, so I'm not sure who to believe. And one well, yeah. I mean, look, I'm, I'm gonna, I'm gonna go, I'm gonna, I'm gonna go with what the bad markets are saying, which is Trump. And, you know, I thought that he I thought he had a much better shot than the polls were reflecting. And that's what it was looking like, what he got Freiberg. Donald Trump took on coronavirus for us. He killed it. He is our true leader and he will prevail here in the United States of America tonight at least. The betting markets are telling me and the treasury markets and the S&P futures are telling me that Donald Trump is going to win. But I do think that the fact that this guy has never conceded defeat to anything in his life. Gives them a huge leg up and he, you know, he's he is like Steve Jobs. He warps reality and he tells everyone I am going to win. I have killed coronavirus and it happens. Wait, like a Jedi knight? Jedi. All right for a four so far picking Trump at exactly 7:45 PM California time. Chamath. Who do you have at this point if you had to shove your chips all in, I still think the path. Is. Umm. I I think it's Biden and I have the advantage of some information, which is that they just announced breaking news. They aren't counting mail in votes in Philadelphia tonight. And I am going with so, so we don't know Pennsylvania tonight. So if it's down to a few thousand votes, Philly I think is going to break. I think you can count that as three or 400,000 votes. And if it should be, it should be 500,000, it should be 500,000. Well then 500,000 would carry the state for Joe Biden. 100,000 so they've got so I'm gonna, I'm gonna stick with Biden here because I think that that Philadelphia vote count is crucial. It turns out that it make it may come down to Philly, which by the way, what an incredibly poignant place for the election to be won and lost. And the city of underdogs, the city of Rocky I, I think we can safely say that Biden is going to win the popular vote and it might be by 4 points. Five points. Which means that there is a discrepancy between the popular vote and Electoral College. We're going to hear a lot about that and because I am going to go with Biden because. My heart is going to be so broken if this country picks this sociopath to run it for another four years after his absolute failure to content to do even the most modest things. To battle coronavirus and the strife he has caused between Americans and his personal style is so heartbreaking to me that I don't know that I can believe in America if they put this absolutely sociopathic person who has the least amount of character of any other human being anybody on this call has ever met in their lives. It would be a complete, absolute, utter disgrace if he makes it into office. For a second term, Jason, what? Do you really exist? Exactly. So you're gonna respond to that? Well, look, I mean the American people. Hold on. It's an existential threat. It's still the entire planet and humanity and democracy across the world. If this country puts that maniac into office again for four, *** **** ******* more years I'll make up for. That's my personal feeling. I can't. I don't care what the statistics say right now. In my heart, I cannot. Give that man even a benefit of the doubt. If he wins, garbage if he wins. Is Fauci the first guy fired? Ohh, I think you can count on it and get Ouchy and Christopher Wray, the FBI director and on right and increasingly maybe Bill Barr too. And somehow Bill Barr is not enough of a shred of credibility or honor. Is gone. I wanna I wanna just say to to jakal I I really empathize with how you're feeling because I have never as a person that has been a citizen of three countries. When I moved to America in 2000, I have never really. I mean, you know, edge cases. Yeah, I've felt some racism here, obviously, you know, I've. But I've never felt so unwanted. And I remember 2016, for the first time in my life, feeling a level of insecurity I had never felt before because I was so afraid. I didn't know what it meant for Donald Trump to be elected four years later. You know, in in in so many ways it's like 2 realms of a coin. You know, I leave my house and. You can just see that there's just so much pain and divisiveness. I come back into my little world and things seem to be really great. And that's a really, really terrible feeling to have, Jason. So I I know exactly what you're talking about. I wanted to tell you guys. You know, I there was like a I I've always been sort of like OK Braden's going to win, Biden's going to win, Biden's going to win. And then there's a weird thing that I did, and you guys can see it in the FEC filings, but I gave 1,000,000 bucks this year in the elections. But I gave 7:50 to the Senate and I gave 2:50 to buy, and I didn't understand why I did it. And I and I and I explained it to Nat as she's like, why did you do it that way? And the best way that I could explain it is I I think that there are so much I don't know about what is driving the vote for President that I wanted to make sure that, you know, there are checks and balances and the best check and balance was to, you know, make sure that there was actually some Senate. Check and balance on Biden. I mean on on Trump. So, you know, I'm, I'm going to Jason, I'm going to accept the result, I'm going to try to figure out what the **** I don't know because this is yet another layer of I clearly don't know what the hell is going on. But I I can tell you pretty assuredly guys, any result that's called tonight I think is going to be incomplete because they're not going to call Pennsylvania because they're not going to call Philly. And so if there are in fact three, no, I think that the exact math is about 350,000 votes that show up in Philadelphia, a gap of 350,000 votes that show up in Philly. Biden will do what he needs to do. By the way, how many people live in Philly? Does anybody know how many registered voters freedberg does? Is it? Is that on the? Billy, there's supposed to be supposed to be like half a million votes coming in there and I think they've counted 100,000. And so I think it'd be more than half a million. Usually the dims margin is about half a million. The margin, yeah, Philly is, I want to say, our fifth or sixth largest market they've actually got it listed on. It's a pretty significant population. That link I sent you there, Nick, and then if you click on Click to view precincts reporting. You can see the data right now. Sorry, it's it's tough to read. Yeah, I mean, we care about Allegheny, and then what else do we care about? You care about Philly and you care about those immediate suburbs outside of Philly, like Bucks County and Chester County. And there's there's four or five ringed suburbs of Philly that used to be the centerpiece of Country Club republicanism. They're the counties that elected Arlen Specter to the Senate. But over time, as the Republicans moved right, they moved more toward the Democrats. Michael, do you know why they're going to stop reporting mail in ballots tonight? Why would they do that? They just probably just. To go home and sleep for a while before they pick it up tomorrow. Pennsylvania, unfortunately, and Michigan as well, are states that aren't allowed to start tabulating until all the polls are closed. That's why those states in the sunbelt we were all looking for to be a early bellwether, because that guys, they can count 4.81%. This is unbelievable. Unbelievable. Well, what are we seeing here? What's unbelievable dramatic. So what that means, Jason, is that in Philadelphia there are 1706 precincts, OK? Of those, only 82 have reported the their ballot tallies. So you have 95% of the precincts in Philly not reporting. If you take Michael's framework and say there's a swing of 500,000 votes, if it goes historically Democrat as it has in the past. You attack on 500,000 net new votes to to Biden and you know and he he ekes out a win. It goes blue probably in that scenario. So that would be a it becomes about. But remember though, if Trump is holding. If he if he manages to hold Michigan. He could lose Pennsylvania and it wouldn't matter. He had a little bit of a margin. He had what? He had 306 electoral votes last time. So if he holds everything he had minus Pennsylvania, actually, he could lose Michigan too. As long as he carried Wisconsin. He has to have one of those too. But I think Wisconsin's difficult. So by the way, yeah. For all of our listeners and watchers in New Jersey, they legalize recreational pots. So go out and get yourself some. Yeah, I'm going to. I'm I I just took four gummies after my little tirade there because. Two Zanex weren't working. So it's going to get really strange for me in about an hour. Just to go back, the reason, I mean, are we gonna crack a bottle of wine or what? Somebody already got one. Yeah, I'm well, this is mostly coffee, but trust me, there's some Irish whiskey and some speaking to you, but it looks like I'm seeing reports to the sound of Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Unfortunately, all four of those states are gonna probably take at least a day. Arizona, three days, I think, to count. Maybe not this year because so much of the vote was early. Maybe it'll move faster, but they are notoriously. Low counters, so settle in. It could be the weekend before we have a result. OK, so let me just drop this if we don't know tonight. What is going to happen over the next week? We're going to be, we're going to need a lot of dummies, Jason. I mean, joking aside, I think everybody's gonna be tense, Jay. I think I don't. I don't think you're gonna see a lot of action one way or the other. I think that people, I think people in America are incredibly good people. I think that folks are just going to sit tight and hope that the folks whose job it is to do their job, do their job. I I but I hope you're right, chamath. But when I see a group of trucks surrounding people's cars, when I see people bringing guns on both sides, horrible people on both sides bringing guns, malicious style to specifically taunt each other. When you see people getting shot in the street, chasing each other down over politics, this is something that has not happened in our lifetime. I mean, Phil's very old, so he kind of remembers the 60s, but for the rest of us under 68. We we have not witnessed Americans shooting each other in the street over politics. We have not witnessed people taking people out of their lives because of politics. And this is got Trump's fingerprints on it from you. You mean since this summer? I mean, what about all the looting and rioting and protests? My point is when Trump got in office, his character. And his ability to trigger people, his ability to abuse people, his rhetoric put everybody on tilt. I'm not saying people looting stores are correct, but what I'm saying is George Bush and Ronald Reagan, your heroes, Bill Clinton, Obama, other peoples heroes on this call. There was a there was a kindness in our differences. And when people conceded, they conceded with grace and this individual, this horrible. But Bush? Bush wasn't a hero. Mine, but I'll putting it aside, yeah. I think Reagan, maybe Bush senior was, yeah. Look, I respect him, classiness. And we had a mutual respect for each other that this deranged individual has removed from America. And so, Jason, I'm not going to defend. It's going to happen in the next week because I'm not, I'm not defend each other leading up to this. I think the next week could be incredibly violent. Thank you for that. Now look Jason, I'm not gonna like disagree with you about any of that. I the the only thing I would add though is I do think that the media has been a Co equal partner in sowing this chaos and divisiveness. Because, you know, we used to have a media that thought its job was objectivity and neutrality. Yes. And they ripped the umpire jersey off their back to go after this guy Trump and and why do you think they did money? It's very profitable Trump. Trump has made big money for the picking aside. Is is definitely more profitable to get more subscribers. It might also be that they were absolutely suffering from Trump Derangement syndrome, from the fact that the person lies and that he wants to separate children from their parents at the border. Listen, yes, but they're supposed to. They have a job to do. They're supposed to be neutral. They're supposed to be a rational opposition to Trump. Yeah, but exactly. But the but the reason why Trump is doing well or better is because. The opposition to him is increasingly irrational and and people have voted for Trump to to, to basically give the middle finger to, you know, to to the to the media who you know again, who are taking sides to these big tech sensors, you know, who don't want us to read things that are critical of Trump, you know, and so on down the line. I mean I, I, I tweeted earlier. I mean Rich Lowry had a great post explaining why if Trump was going to win, why, you know, why why that would happen. And it's because he's the only middle finger available to these people. And. Yeah, I don't disagree with you. He's not being no one's voting for Trump because of his integrity, perceived integrity or integrity. That's the first time I heard integrity in the same sentence as Trump. You're I'm agreeing with that point. I'm saying they're not voting for him because of that. They're not voting for him because of even a second term agenda. They're voting for him in order to to stop. Cultural forces they don't like. Two things to say decidedly, by the way. Two things to say. According to. The national political writer for the Philly Inquirer. Jonathan Tamari, his tweet of 7:35 PM said actually it was even greater than we thought. There are still 2.2 million mail in ballots to be counted in PA, about 87% of the total. So if that's true, then we have that and Philly's number one. The second thing I wanted to say is that if you actually look at the sum counts right now in Pennsylvania, it's 300 and 71591 votes. That's separate Trump and. Life. So it's, you know, not that much guys if 2.2 million vote votes are outstanding, yeah, but if it's, if it's too, if it's, let's see 60% or two third kind of to 1/3 slash 40%. And it's not, let's say it comes in under that, right. They probably counted a couple 100,000 already. I mean, it's still pretty close, yeah. Really close. Let me, let me ask chamat, do you think that part of the reason we're seeing futures markets jump? And the dollar jump and. And all the kind of obviously correlated assets moving the way they are is not necessarily because of a Trump win, but because the risk of a hung election seems to be coming out of the system right now that it seems like we're going to have a much more clear outcome here than we thought we would. Florida is going to be much more clear. That's always a worry state. Georgia is going to be clear. Obviously, we've still got Pennsylvania to kind of figure out here, but it seems like this is going to break one way or another, whereas a lot of folks were concerned we'd end up in the court. Heading over hanging Chads for months and there was concern in the markets for months about that, do we think, no, I think that people were basically, look, there's a reason to be long Biden in the markets, which is essentially that there are certain sectors of the economy that would have done very well. Those sectors of the economy were probably slightly different than Trump's under a Trump regime. The reality is that corporate taxes, broadly speaking, are not going to go up. And so, you know, you can forecast higher earnings power for every stock, and so everything goes up. I think what's happening right now is more of that relief trade of maybe Trump was winning so you could be kind of long everything blindly. But you know the the real Canary in the coal mine was like if you looked at tech futures. Tech futures was just going bonkers when they thought he was going to win because they will probably disproportionately benefit of just having to pay no taxes because they pay no taxes today. I so so that's kind of like what I what I think is happening on on that side. I mean Trump is very pro business. That's why the markets are ripping, right. I don't know. I mean I feel like there was a real concern like there was a a non 0 case here, call it a 30% case that we were gonna get stuck for a few months with uncertainty and litigation about where this election was gonna go. I think, I think it's fair to say that we we still we we could still have that, David, because we don't if if this goes to tomorrow, I think it's fair to say that that the game theory would tell you that tomorrow whoever loses Pennsylvania should ask for an immediate recount, right. Right. And I don't know what the. They have to. I don't know what the process for that is. If whoever loses Arizona should ask for an immediate recount, you know it whatever is possible under the law, I think both Biden and Trump will exercise because, let's face it, this is the highest stakes possible. And so you would hate to not if it's a margin of a few thousands of votes or 10s of thousands of votes or even 100,000 votes and you're allowed to do a recount. So if that's the case tomorrow morning, if we go to bed in another hour and a half, or if we finish this thing in another hour and there is no. Winner, clear winner. I think markets will be back to sort of modestly risk off tomorrow. So David, your thesis is that your thesis is clear winner. The markets rip either way. I think, yeah. Clear winner. It's just like there was a lot of grinding expected here that was gonna cause a lot of, you know, trepidation and bouncing for a while that folks were concerned about. And if you feel like you're going to have a clear election outcome or whether or not it gets litigated, if you feel clear about where it's going to go because it's 5545, you know, sure they're gonna ask for a recount. Good news for everybody makes sense. Look, I I think the the market does not want those Trump tax cuts repealed, stocks just ripped after Trump passed those corporate tax cuts. So. If either Trump wins or the Republicans hold on to the Senate, then that would be a reason for the market to rip. Doesn't mean it doesn't mean Trump has to win, but it but. But if we have divided government gridlock between the two of you, the best, best possible scenario for the market is if Trump clearly wins. OK, I think, I think we have another bestie online. Is it the case if we look at the Senate races? I don't know if anyone. I don't know if that's an easy way for us to pull this up, but do we have to go pull that up, David and and I just want to introduce our next bestie, guestie. Brad Gerstner is here. He. Yeah said brands a multibillion dollar. I believe you would call it a hedge fund or a fund. Yeah. And he invests large swaths of money in the American economy has a very see the best travel investor of all time, Jason Calcanis. He's up there, but he. Certainly, I would. I would guess, Brad, with COVID and airlines being grounded, this has not been the easiest year for you. So apologies. No, Brad. Brad just made $10 billion on Snowflake. He's fine snowflake, man. Brad, what's going on? Tell us what's going on. What do you know well? Hi all. Yeah, OK. It's a. It's a fascinating night. I mean, all markets are ripping. We've had a massive reversal in the NASDAQ, a massive reversal in the bond market. And it it it appears that, you know, everybody's now who is worried about a Trump victory is now celebrating a Trump victory. You know, one of the things people didn't understand about a clear Biden victory is the underlying concern in the bond market. Right. If there's one thing to explain the expansion in multiples in the market this year is the fact that rates have collapsed. Right. So the 30 and 10 year went from you know, a couple 100 basis points 20 months ago to basically 50 basis points in August of this year. We've seen them back up about 40% over the course of the last couple months. We see them backing up again tonight. The fact is the the market is seriously concerned about higher rates. Which are the result of both a turbocharged economy too much stimulus on top of you know a vaccines and prophylactics for COVID. And so you know if you ask me you know we get all excited about the election we get all excited about stimulus and tax policy. But the biggest elephant in the room is the Fed and rates that's the 80 to 90% factor in the market this year and Q4 of 18. And So what I'm what we're looking at you know we see the the NASDAQ now up 350 bips. The future is up 350 bips. So that says Trump's winning. We're not going to break up the tech companies. We see the S&P starting to rise again and we see the bond market falling, saying that we're going to have lower stimulus right in the market. So, you know, I, I've heard, I've heard y'all talk about, you know, a clear victory certainly is better than not a clear victory. But, you know, notwithstanding our own ******* anxiety that we have to live with for the next four years, in the short run, the market is clearly voting on, you know, is, is, is voting that Trump is a palatable alternative. And I would tell you to keep your eyes on rates. Brad, what's on the market, Brad, more more than a great manager of money. You're actually a great human being, but you're also very wired into. The Dems? What are the Dems getting wrong if they lose today? Well, you know. First, this is an upset already tonight. Let's call it it. This is a massive upset. Relative to expectations, win or lose, the reversal in in the betting markets, the reversal in the stock market, you know it's just earlier tonight it. You know a well known organizer's house. On the democratic side there is despondency. This is a massive upset by Trump and once again a massive misread by the progressives and organizers in the Democratic Party. You know, I had my 84 year old mother out here from Michigan over the weekend. And I'll tell you that ordinary people. Are made to be, to feel bad about themselves. By people living in these parts. The sanctimony? That exists. In urban areas. You know, and coastal elites is just, it's, you know, this is what we're seeing people vote against, right? The idea that you're going to close down the state of Michigan, not allow people to take their boats out on lakes. This is just, you know, not something that people are willing to tolerate. And I think more than anything else, tonight you see a protest vote against sanctimony. And this is just ordinary people saying that, you know, let us live our lives. Don't act so much smarter than us. You know, and you know, I asked my 84 year old mother, you know who she voted for. She goes, don't ask me who I voted for. That's none of your business, right? Like, that's her way of telling me, right? That you know, that she's frustrated. By how people in San Francisco make her feel living in Michigan. I think that's. I think that's right. That's so smart. But David Sacks, before you talk, he's talking about you. Well, no. Look, I mean, I'm on Twitter and I echo change technology extremely. I mean, it's usually VC's, basically. They can't comprehend how somebody could have a political opinion that's different than them without that person literally being evil. I mean, I see this on Twitter over and over and over again. I'm like, really? Yeah, but, but, but but but this is like most of Silicon Valley, and I'm just like, look, I mean, political opinions are like ********. I mean, everyone's got one. And to think that yours is a lot prettier than everybody else is, and it's a bit ridiculous. Everybody to the podcast. If you're just tuning in, well, the family hours just ended. There we go. We? Brad? Brad, can I ask a question? What? Like what? What do we do? Yeah, you know, for me, listen, a Trump victory. The reality is we've learned to tolerate the anxiety over the last four years and I think the markets fully prepared to, to manage its way through another four years of Trump. So I think that's, you know, the reason we're seeing the, the futures react the way they are is it's a whole lot of nothing. I mean, the fact of the matter is asking how do we get off of our horses if we're on horses, the social elites? Well, I mean. This is going to take a complete rewiring, right? Like an abandonment of, you know, the I mean, listen, you, you and I all know the exodus of people out of the Bay Area right now. Right. The fact of the matter is like pragmatic politics and the Democratic Party in the state of California vacated long ago. And you know, that is not a recipe for victory. It's not a recipe for victory at a national level. It's not a recipe for victory or tolerable victory at a state level. I think we're going to have the single largest migration of economic the single largest economic migration in the history of this country, the convergence of COVID, which allows people to work from anywhere. And the risk of changing tax policies in states like California is going to cause mass economic migration. And I think that people are voting with their feet and they're voting with their wallets and they're voting, you know, tonight in in loud numbers, no matter where this, where this comes down, this is an upset and a defeat for what Democrats expected to occur tonight. Do you, do you buy the framing, Brad, that this is about political correctness versus cancel culture? Yeah, I think that's a I think that's a big part of it. I mean, like, you know? I think it comes out it's it's amplified this year because of COVID, but it comes down to something very simple, which I talked about. You know, sometimes my sister likes to call me fancy pants, right? She's like, oh, you fancy people who live in San Francisco. You have all the answers, right? This is just the way that people in Indiana and Michigan and Ohio, they're made to feel every day. Yeah, they will sit around watching Fox News. These are not people who are racist, right? Chamath I heard you say earlier tonight, the idea that Trump could pull what he's polling. And yet, if you talk to all of our friends. They would have you believe that it was just a small band of, you know, racist pickup drivers carrying Trump flags. I mean they are, their head is in the sand. This is, this is CEO's, you know, these are business owners, these are small business owners. These are farmers. These are old people, these are young people. I mean the the millennials. You can't find a millennial in the state of Indiana or Michigan who supports Biden and find them. And I mean just to add to that point about what? They think about people in San Francisco. Why shouldn't they think that when tech giants and the people who work at these big tech companies like Twitter and Facebook are asserting a right to censor articles that they don't like and trying to assert a power over what the American people get to see and read? I mean, what a campaign issue that was for Trump in the last two weeks. I mean, whatever Twitter and Facebook thought they were doing to protect or help the Biden campaign, I mean, what a blunder. I mean, to give Trump the issue of censorship. In the last two weeks and then the extraordinary thing, you know, we had that, that congressional hearing in the Senate Commerce Committee that wrote a blog about. And the amazing thing is right on the heels of that after that hearing when we heard Jack Dorsey get that, you know, he just got grilled. He got ripped apart by the senators. Twitter doubled down on censorship after that. There was an article by Jonathan Turley talking about they censored a whole new batch of accounts. And so if anything, you know, it'll be really interesting to see. I think, you know, if you think back four years ago, Facebook was really for whatever reason. I'm the scapegoat for the election. I think this time around is going to be Twitter because they have been so arrogant and their assertion of their right to censor viewpoints they don't like. And if the Republicans hold on to the Senate and or the Presidency, I think you're going to see Jack Dorsey become the poster child for this new censorship that they're going to target and the party. Paradox Friedburg is that? Had they just let that New York Post story be tweeted because it's the New York Post, this is. I mean, you may not like the New York Post, it may have a sorted past or reputation. But if that happened in New York Times story, Washington Post story or an MSNBC story or a CNN story, it would not have been banned because it's a Rupert Murdoch New York Post story. And because it was salacious, somebody mid level inside of Twitter decided to ban it. How much of that do you think? Plays into what we're seeing here tonight, Freedberg, which is that this is not. Uh, a small event. This is a large group of people saying I don't want anything to do with the Democratic Party anymore. I just think back to 2016 and. You know, everyone has their own priorities, their own individual things that matter to them. And I remember in 2016 or leading up to it, I spent a lot of time in what we call kind of the Rust Belt and the farm belt. And if you'll remember, this was around the time of kind of the transgender bathroom, you know, movement. Yeah. Yeah. And this was felt very much like a coastal elite topic of interest. If you're in the Rust Belt and the farm belt, you're like, what the ****? How is this possibly something people are spending time on and arguing about and thinking about and the disconnect between the priorities of the individuals that live in the vast part of the United States? Versus what they read about and hear about others treat as their priority. I think it's what partially helped support Trump getting elected in the 1st place, because the things that matter to them that they felt were highly consequential were completely unrelated and not being paid attention to. While other folks, you know, that had the money and the power in the big cities were focused on social matters and social issues and liberal decisions that they thought were inconsequential or shouldn't be a priority. And I think that fast. Toward the 2020 and it hasn't moved in the right direction, it's moved in the wrong direction. Where the the the the disconnect is no longer a passive difference of priority. It's actually become an active interest moving against you. And so if you live in corn belt or the Rust Belt or vast parts of rural America, you you to your point. You're now not only feeling that there's this disconnect, but you're also feeling like this point of view is becoming overwhelming and stopping you from having a point of view. And I think whether your point of view is rooted in fact or not, you can base that however you want. It just feels like it's becoming a silencing effect and not just kind of a an, you know, ignoring the effect. And I think, let me, let me just jump in here. I wanted to come back to this, but I wanted to just jump to something that Bogut just tweeted. Andrew Bogut, thank you for this. Detroit, Philadelphia and Milwaukee all planning to post vote counts tomorrow as they work through absentee backlog. So if we look at the counts. That really could mean that, Phillip. You know, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan are either too close to call or not even yet ready to be called until tomorrow morning. I think, let's take a pause here and let's go through what the swing states are and where they stand at this very moment. Arizona is an important toss up state, correct? Let's pull up Arizona, Nick. Let's all just take a moment to look at Arizona. We're going to go through about six or seven of these States and just get our bearing right now because when we did the quick survey about 45 minutes ago, four of us believed. Trump was going to win. Two of us believe. One of us emotionally, one of us somewhat emotionally believed. That's where we were at. Guys, you guys, guys. Before you start this, hold on. Before you start this, I just want to read a tweet. 22, tweets #1 from Nick Bilton. When do we get to vote on when we fire Nate Silver and the second one? Wait, the second one, which is even funnier? He's named Nate Silver because all his picks come in second place. Ooh. Ooh. Ouch. Wow. I mean, I I I was tweeting you guys for the election. I mean, the Nate Silver thing was a joke. You. First of all, he was saying that Biden was 90% favorite. And at the same time, he said that if Trump won Pennsylvania, then he would become the favorite. But you knew that Trump was at a few points of the margin of error in Pennsylvania. So how can you be a 90% favorite? But some, but, but, but Pennsylvania is sort of neck and neck. I mean, even his own internal. Projections weren't consistent with each other. I mean, here's Nate Silver, one of the best sports predictors in history. He's been an absolute genius. He stepped into politics and now you guys are lashing. Yeah, but this this is the worst case of analytics since Tampa Bay pulled their pitcher in the 6th inning of the World Series. I mean, if we look at what's happening, it's very clear that there are people who are either lying to the pollsters because they're embarrassed about their choice, or they may actively be trolling the pulsers. So when a pollster calls them, they lie to them to have this exact moment happen, just like the Tik tokers all registered for a Trump event. So now we have a level of trolling going on, on a national level #poll. I think there's a simpler explanation, and that's that we're not all trolls. I think the simpler explanation is that pollsters are empiricists and they're experts and like a lot of experts. You you can kind of, you can kind of interpret the Trump phenomenon of of over performing now 2 elections in a row is a kind of revolt against the experts and they don't see their biases. So the way they should, they're they're blind to certain things. There's really no excuse for how bad they missed this one because Michael, they may have been experts yesterday, but they're not experts. Well, this is, I mean, this is what Trump does. This is why people support him. In spite of the fact that I don't think anyone disagrees with Jason's opinion of his of his character is that they love sticking it to the to the eggheads, you know, Brad, Brad, Brad, Brad. What happens to. Media like what happens to how we conduct ourselves? Like, do you, do you read the New York Times tomorrow and think, wow, I'm going to trust the times? I'm not saying you did before, but I'm just using it as a generality to sort of ask the question, like what happens to media? Belief in, you know, all of these polls and all of these mainstream press. I mean this validates the arguments effectively that Trump has been making, right, that you've been told lies, that these polls were lies, that everybody was trying to manipulate you. I mean it's this is a validation of those who are flipping the middle finger at Washington and at the coast and they're saying we're not going to be told how to believe, how to think, how to vote. How to wear masks. How to wear masks. And, you know, it's there's a dangerous side to this 100%. It's the end of expertise. I mean, who, who, who can we ever trust? I mean, and this is Putin. Well, ironically, it's the experts who got masks wrong. Remember that at the time that I was saying that we should wear masks? The Who was saying we shouldn't? So they were lying. They were deliberately lying to keep PPE from being overrun by. So the experts have done a horrible job on COVID. New Jason I mean, look, I think that's part of the reason now the cynicism of Trump and his approach to absolutely undermined Fauci and say to and admonish people wearing masks while on stage is a level of danger and is and is a what? That's insane. So we know that masks work. You actually were a proponent of it. Yes, of course mass mass should never become a political issue. Last week said don't wear a mask. Was he literally made fun of a person wearing a mask? Let's just run through each of the states right now. Can you say you're OK? Can I wait? Can I can just respond to that Jason, real quick? Yeah. Look, look, I, you know, I wrote a blog post, but going back to April 1st saying that we should, that mass should be the policy and it should never have become a political issue. OK. It should have been a bipartisan response and it's unfortunate it became a political issue, but and I'm and I'm not not forgiving that, and it took. Trump. Way too long to get on board with mass, I think right around the time my blog was published a few days afterwards. First he said it was optional. You could do it if you want. It took him about another three months to actually say that. Master a good idea. I agree that had he just gone all in on a mass policy, I think this would not even be a close election. I mean, that was probably the single biggest blunder that he made politically this year. 100% agree. OK, so we agree on that. But, but but look, but you're you're missing the other half of it, which is. What is our COVID policy going to be today? And the reality is that Joe Biden and all these blue state governors are still on the record as being in favour of lockdowns and in fact they are doing lockdowns. The only reason why Michigan and Wisconsin, but I say especially Michigan would ever be in play tonight is because of lockdowns. Absolutely agree, yes, this is a resounding rebuke of lockdowns. Let's just skip through these real quick. Arizona, pull it up. Nick. Arizona, here we are. Biden, 54%. If we round up 45 for Donald Trump, 75%. Looks like Arizona is going to Biden. Next up, let's take a quick look at Iowa. Umm. Iowa, 64% in and we're in a essentially a dead heat with yeah that I was going to Trump, Jason. I was going to Trump. You can see how that numbers come down. Yeah. As as the Election Day vote starts to trickle in that's going to try it. So they were one of the states that did the drop off ballots mail in ballots first. I think. I think that's fair to say yeah. OK Ohio critically important. Let's take a look at Ohio while we're here. Ohio. Wow. That's really flipped hard with a commanding lead. Yeah, you can kiss that one goodbye. Yeah. Ohio. Well done. Just North Carolina. We are now within one. Can we just all agree? If we were, I mean. Right, if we're momentum investors. I mean, this thing is this is a disaster for Biden right now. Disaster. This is a disaster for Biden. And on top of this, all our talk is about the Presidency. They're not going to get the Senate either. No. Tillis is running ahead of Trump in North Carolina, so I think he's home free. And well, the vote in Maine is not fully in yet. There's only about 41%. Collins has a 40,000 vote lead, which entities in Collins keeps her seat. That is the biggest. That that is like the mega upset the Democrats were already they were targeting her two years ago after she voted for Kavanaugh. Yeah, OK, maybe the best the as we think through this, by the way, just keep this in mind. CNN right now shows. I mean, I don't is CNN's head must be up their *** or we don't know what we're doing, but they show 192 to 114 Biden. They call, they call California. That's right. They called California when the polls closed. So that's 55. It went, yeah. OK, North Carolina, here we go. We we or we did North Carolina, I believe. Yeah, we're at 95% reporting and Trump has a a lead that looks like he's. Yeah, unless there's a lot of Charlotte out, I think that North Carolina is over and that by the way, that percentage is outside the recount window. I think you have to be within 1%. OK. Let's take a look at Georgia for a quick second. We said that was Michael, do you know if we've counted N Carolinas Mail int? I think that I think they were all dumped at the outset, right? North Carolina. One of the reasons why we were watching them tonight is that, like Florida, they can count in advance. And so they dumped they dumped a bunch right at the outset here. By the way, I just got it. By the way, I just checked the betting lines. Trump is over a 3 to one favorite to win the election right now. Later, later it goes. The more significant that is. Why did it come down to 200 on bravado? That's the lowest it's been. That's it. I just got. I just got three to one-on-one of the sides. Yeah, that's the lowest starting sites if you assume that Biden takes Arizona. Trump takes North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia. Let's go to you. Let's give him Pennsylvania wins. Arizona. In Arizona, he could lose Michigan. So Georgia is currently 54%. Just declared that Biden won Arizona. Oh well, OK, that's a quick call. Why does Biden has to take Pennsylvania? OK, so now this is what I'm saying. This is why this is in place. So if you assume Biden takes Arizona, so that's now on the table. Now if you say that Trump takes North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Florida, Texas, Ohio, etcetera, he still needs. To pull out a victory in Michigan, Wisconsin or Minnesota. Otherwise, get this. Or Nevada. Well, actually, Nevada wouldn't be enough. Nevada wouldn't be enough. Yeah. Otherwise, let's go to Minnesota. Guys. Hold on, guys. Hold on. Just let me finish, please. It's going to be if Trump. So if that happens, Trump needs to win one of Michigan, Wisconsin or Minnesota. Otherwise, it's 27268 Biden. Wow. OK, so here's Minnesota. Let's just pause for a second. Biden with a Biden's got a. A 56% to 42 with 54% in. So there's a lot more to come in. But I think, Michael, you would agree that's a bridge too far. I I never thought Minnesota was in play. The Republicans, the Republicans put a brave face on there and they are making some gains in the rural areas. But Minnesota was never in place. That's going to Wisconsin. Time to go to Wisconsin. Let's take a let's pause here. We got to do this step by step everybody. Wisconsin, 51% to 47%. Donald Trump with 54%. That too, I think, feels like a bridge too far. Or do we not know if they did? We don't know. You know, I think Wisconsin is another one who's probably counted their Election Day vote first. So. No. So Biden is still very much alive in Wisconsin. Yeah, exactly. Milwaukee doesn't come in until tomorrow morning. Yeah, Michigan. We need to take a quick look at Michigan, and then we're almost done. OK, here's Michigan. Donald Trump at trending to 55% to 44% for Biden. Only 44. Four percent are in. And let's be clear, is this Detroit doesn't come first tomorrow, OK? Is that Michigan? Detroit? That Wayne County vote is very low. Yeah, look at that 28%. Lot of more, lot more votes there. OK, so we don't know about Michigan. Michigan is very much up in the air. That's a that's a pretty good margin for Trump there. But I would say it's very much up in the air. But by the way, if you put Arizona in Biden's column, he can lose Michigan. Let's take a look at Pennsylvania one more time, actually. And Trump is right, he could lose. He lose either Michigan or Pennsylvania and still he could out. Trump needs to win Michigan, Wisconsin, one of Michigan, Wisconsin or Minnesota. So basically, forget Minnesota if Detroit. So. So then if Detroit doesn't show up and Milwaukee and Green Bay don't show up, Trump wins. Pennsylvania Chamath does that assume that he wins Pennsylvania? Yes, if I give you, if we give him Pennsylvania. So again, This is why I think guys, it feels like Biden. As I said earlier, I'm a little shaky on my prediction right now. Actually. I think the, the betting markets are showing it's tightened almost to even. And let me ask Brad a question, Brad. If the betting markets are saying it's almost even in the analysis we just did isn't missing any information. Yeah. Why are the futures markets still trading up 1 1/2 points and and why are things still? You know, I I think that listen. The the the stock markets ripped the last two days assuming that Biden is going to win. And I think what the markets are starting to price in is that this is not going to be a blue wave. There's no mandate here for massive tax reform. There's going to be a divided Senate. It's going to be hard to pass legislation that's going to be overly onerous that the stimulus package is going to be smaller, not larger, which is why the the rates are. Backing up, so I think from a I think from a public markets perspective, the idea that we're going to have some checks and balances in place, it can live with either the the devil we know or it can live with Biden, but it doesn't wipe want Biden with Elizabeth Warren as Treasury Secretary. So democracy survives. I I think scenario three is starting to look very possible. Biden and a Republican Senate, and I can sleep soundly with that. I don't, I don't know we're going to have you guys. I don't know what you're looking at, but I mean 1.9 is that? I mean that's like, that's a huge significant right there. It's still good, I give you that, but. I don't know those those numbers, it's moving fast. I want to, I want to take this down to 180. Yeah, I want to go back to this topic that we were brought up. OK, guys, look, we'll have a winner and it's going to be close ish. But think of how many people. Like, isn't there any empathy for all these people that are that just feel so completely shut out of the system? Like, what do we do tomorrow? Like irrespective actually of whether Trump wins or Biden wins, I think Brad's right. We're gonna basically get, you know, nothing much is going to happen at that level. But what do we do with the like on Main Street? Like what are we doing to close the gap between folks so that, you know, this entire cohort, like literally, I don't care whether Biden wins by the popular vote by 5,000,000 or 7,000,000, you're talking about 10s of millions of people. Bill Gurley is now on the line, another one of our bestie, guestie's. Bill, thanks for joining us. You heard the question being teed up here. This is neck and neck. This is not something anybody, at least pollsters came anywhere close to predicting and chamath question I think is a really valid one who is got a greater chance of bringing the country back together and maybe leading from the middle and maybe healing this wound because this has been the worst four years I believe in any of our lifetimes. In terms of the anxiety and the anger between people who used to be able to, what a loaded question. I well, I wanna know Bill's opinion because by the way, Bill Gurley is Jason. Jason. Mature capitalist in the world. Phil. Phil, Phil. Stop hijacking our ******* broadcast. Go ahead, girly. You know, I think you guys have done a really good job of breaking down why people have misestimated this thing. There was a, you know, there's such a rural, urban split. There was a, there was a really good New York Times Daily podcast about two weeks ago where they interviewed rural Democrats and in Pennsylvania that had switched to Trump and and all the voices they echoed were very similar to what Brad walked through with his mother. And so I do think there's a a true lack of empathy for this. The center States and the rural areas from the coastal elites, and I'd say part of breaking any of it down would be somehow trying to separate that. I think a bigger issue that has really been on my mind lately is just how tribal everyone's gotten. And I I've, I've come to believe that the way you can probably just ruin your mind the most is to just join a tribe and quit thinking about things and the number of people I know on both sides. They have run off to their tribe is shocking to me and and it's just not a way to go about being smart because you know and and if you anyone that makes fun of a you know. A religion that's extreme or something, it's all the same **** like you're just believing dogma for the sake of it. So I one of the things that I worry about, about a Trump victory is, is just very tactically in my life and maybe it's part of living in California, but a whole bunch of people and things that I want to get solved become more manic if he wins, like my kids school and the companies that I work with and and COVID, quite frankly, I I think that we can't get past COVID with Trump. Because the TDs ers are so convinced that it has to be problematic and it's just, you know, so I don't I actually, I don't know the exact path to solve it, but I I do worry about just being in a world where everyone hates each other and it just doesn't seem solvable that way. Well This is why I think you know this this scenario which I've, we've called the soft landing where let's say you had a Biden victory by two electoral votes. The Republicans hold on to the Senate. I think the radical left gets a big, I'd say rebuke or a shock and we have basically divided government in Washington, but it takes the whole temperature down because, you know, Trump gets replaced by Biden, but you've kind of got, you know, basically Joe and his old pal Mitch are in a power sharing. Management in Washington, it could be a really good situation for the country for the next 4 years. You know, temperature will go down. There would be kind of this, you know, healing process, if you will. But, you know, there wouldn't be a whole lot of new sort of legislation that we have to worry about. I think we would get what we want, which is the ability to ignore Washington for four years. Yeah, but we wouldn't get a solution to really what ails us, which is the fact that there's all these people that just feel completely shut out. And that really bothers me. Some very basic level which is like. I just think, like, you know, I I fought my family, my parents. Just escape some third world ******* shithole to go to Canada. And you know, Canada gave us a lot, but it still wasn't enough for me. I crawled and scratched to get into the United States. Things work out, but I don't feel like I have a right to all of a sudden. I don't know, just like look down on other people or make people feel like **** or not allow people to actually think chamath that Biden is going to do that or do you think Biden is going to be? No. But Jason, I think middle ground, no. Who? Who? The Republicans in the Senate and the No, what I'm saying is independent of what happens we're going to have basically we're going to have a photo finish. And what I think what Brad said is right the the fact that we are in a photo finish means that there are a lot of people in pain and I think we have a responsibility to get our heads out of our *****. And stop this sanctimonious, holier than thou ********. I agree with Brad when he says that it really hits a nerve with me, because I feel like there are a lot of people. We work with them all. It's rife within the tech culture and all these **** bags think they know what they're talking about all the time and we're doing a disservice to so many Americans and we need to wake up. And that's what bothers me, the idea that there are so many people. Who feel like they're just getting so ******. Really bothers me. That bothers me. So I, I I I can ignore Trump. I'll ignore his ******** because honestly, he's done nothing. He will do nothing. He is a complete ******* void. But whether it's Trump or Biden in a 27268 election, the fact that so many people still use this guy as a vessel, I don't know. That makes that makes me more upset. I think some people I think everyone thinks has some degree of empathy to the problem. I think there are different points of view on the solution, which is where this stuff gets realized. The the one point of view is we should have less government involved in our lives and our businesses. And the other point of view is we should have more support and help from the government and. That's where things diverge very quickly. It doesn't feel to me like anyone in politics is necessarily ignoring what what you're highlighting. And I don't think anyone in America does, from the rich to the poor to the left to the right. Yeah, I think the solutions are miscast because, for example, like, what are we supposed to do? Like, with our higher educational institutions, the people that are churning out all these folks that are meant to go and collaborate and find middle ground? I mean, I clearly like all of this says our educational facilities are completely failing. From grade school all the way through to high school, Community College, College, grad school, it's all just a contrived ***** ** ****. Right. We are completely putting out one in two people for failure. OK, so that much is clear. So I don't see politicians fixing that. On either side of the aisle. What? I mean, honestly, what are we supposed to do? Well, I mean, might I might just might I just suggest that? Two things. Umm. Number one, I think in these results that you see, there's a, you know that there is extraordinary frustration, right with this, with the state of affairs, the fact that Trump in the middle of COVID. After four years of torturous, anxiety inducing tweets. Could even be in a necked and neck race to win this election tells you right how devastatingly bad people feel about how they're how they're being treated. I think that, you know, I said recently, I mean we have to redraft the social contract. This idea we've been living under a social contract drafted post World War Two. That, you know, it's pre technology revolution. We have a concentration of wealth today in in the world and in this country like we've never seen. And we have Republicans that are set in their ways who say, you know, no, no, no universal healthcare. You know, no reform of the education system. You have Democrats who are demanding that you have universal basic income. I think you have to have pragmatic, smart, younger politics. I mean the fact that we have two old white men. I mean neither of these folks. Is on top of their game. I mean neither of these like this is. I mean you could you compare Biden to Pete Buttigieg? I mean, Buttigieg is Buttigieg walks into the lions den of Fox TV and Tames the lion every night. Every night. Right. Let's get Pete Buttigieg solving some of these problems. Let's get some younger ideas on the Republican side solving these problems. But we're going to have to re architect, architect that social contract, no doubt about it. You know, and I, I think the second thing is that you know, to me this is going to be a wake up call to the nominating processes in both parties. But, but let's be clear, Mike Pence, right, has his road map. You know for, you know how to win the election, Indiana governor, right? Who's going to tap into the same fears that Trump tapped into? I mean, these fears aren't going away. Right, exactly. The exacerbation of the wealth disparity is going to increase, not decrease. We see it every day out here. And so I think you're going to have to have, you know, the Democratic Party who nominates people and puts people, you know, forward, who can, you know, who can tap into this? Who do you like? If it wasn't Biden, who would you like? Buddha judge, he's a S this was the, you know, an openly gay. Mayor. Of my hometown in Indiana. You think he can sell, right? Who fought, who fought in Afghanistan and who goes on Fox News every damn night, right? And has a conversation that leaves Republicans saying, oh, that guy's pretty smart. Right. Yeah, I agree that he's a tremendous political talent. Do you think that he's pragmatic enough bread or he's he would he would end up veering more towards a, you know, sort of like. Politically correct leftist socialist agenda and then have the same result. I think that there is a there's been a doctrine in the in the Democratic Party that to win the primary you got to veer to the left, right, you got to contend with Bernie, you got to contend with Elizabeth Warren. But ultimately that's a losing strategy in in the election. And so I think you're going to have the emergence of a middle of the country governor, middle of the country mayor, somebody like Pete, who's going to run, you know, on a smart, younger, pragmatic Democratic ticket. I think that's a winning formula. I mean, I think that's the Clinton formula. You know, Obama was a bit of an anomaly, but the Clinton formula was a conservative, pragmatic form of of Democratic Party leadership. I mean, I suspect that in the next three or four days I'm going to get a call from the Democratic leadership figuring out how much they can count on me. And my message to them is you guys can go **** yourselves until you figure this out. Because to your point, Brad, it is absolutely shameful that we're in. No, no, I'm serious that we are in. I know you are. That's what I love. I mean, what you should tell them to do is go form a DLC. Remember the Democrat Leadership Committee that Bill Clinton forms? So I remember what what Bill Clinton did. You know, when he won in 92, we had three straight Republican presidential terms. Ronald Reagan, incredibly successful president. Then his successor. Basically Reagan wanted. Bush won a third term for Reagan, but he was a weak candidate and Clinton came in there. What did he do? He triangulated. He tacked toward the center. And, you know, he he actually passed a lot of bipartisan legislation. David, David, David, let me make this even more blunt, OK? My 1,000,000 bucks will grow to $10 million per election to $50 million per election as I get older. OK, so these ************* want a single *** **** dollar for me. What I want first is a root cause analysis to understand what is actually going on. So to your point, before you fix it, you need to be honest and identify the problem. Well I mean I I think that I think it's it's because the the the issue that Trump ran against was that Joe Biden was a Trojan horse for radical for a radical left that really owns the Democratic Party right now. That's what he ran against Bill Gurley. What do you think the issues are that if we were going to try to have a great reconciliation between these two parties, between Middle America and the coastal elites where you have spent, you know, large swaths of your life? I think perhaps you're the only person here who has lived in both places. Middle of America, from Indiana. OK. But you don't count, I trust your judgment on these issues. Well, what does the, what does the, what are the coasts need to understand about the people who believe, who win, who live between the coasts and what they're trying to express to us? And how can we as coastal occupants and citizens do to kind of bridge this gap other than just moving to Austin and getting the hell out of California, which is devolving, which is what I feel like doing at this point? You have two comments on this one. You know, having having listened to, you know as much as I can on on all the all the the voter conversations including this call, I'm not 100% sure that that these people feel unrepresented. I think a lot of them want to be left alone. And so part part of what's being engineered or what they fear is being engineered is someone sitting in a city with views that are very different than them telling them that. This is the world they have to live by and I think the lockdown fit in with that. But a lot of other things too that put the, The Daily Podcast I mentioned, you know, there was this guy just saying what does what does Nancy Pelosi know about what I want in my day-to-day life, you know? And so there there is a notion of being left alone. Brad's story about his mom was like, hey, we're fine here. Like don't don't bother me. And so there's a there's a difference between trying to solve a problem for them and being empathetic to their point of view. And, and I would say having spent a lot of time in these areas and being a slow talker and sometimes made fun of for that, there is a there's unquestionably a a type of social bias against rural Americans in in urban cities. There's just no doubt it's it's the only joke you're allowed to tell without getting rebuked. In other words, we can make fun of the rednecks and we can ohh absolutely all day long. All day long we can we can do a Bill Gurley impersonation or moral. I mean if we. And this is the thing that I don't understand when I grew up and and I'm curious other people's opinions here and I'll let anybody who wants to jump in on this. It feels like the lessons I was taught in the 70s and 80s which were America is strong because we're a melting pot, we take the best of all the cultures and we try to make our own. Out of it. And that you get to make choices for your life and in your city, town and state that don't have to be the same as the ones we make in New York. So if you want to have a handgun and you want to put it on your waistband in Texas or wherever and in New York City, we don't want to have handguns in this city because it's a little bit more crowded. We can, we can have that difference and we can coexist. And I don't know when we lost this script that what makes America great is the differences and that people living in different parts of a very large, diverse country can have different opinions about. You know, abortion and and what month abortion is allowed to occur at or the owning of a gun or you know how tall a building can be built. When did that get taken off the table and who took it off the table? You know, who took it off the table was hysterical libs. And I think the hysterical as much as this far right Trump, you know, you know flags on pickup trucks surrounding other cars is absolutely horrible to watch. I have equal disdain for hysterical libs trying to tell somebody who lives on a ranch that they can't have a gun when they've never even been to a *** **** ranch and they've never had to use a gun to protect their family because the a cop coming to your ranch is gonna take 45 minutes. And and that's what America needs to get back to, is respecting each other's different lifestyles. Whether you're an atheist or you're devoutly Catholic. Viva la difference? Let people live their *** **** lives. I think it's an astute point, Bill Jakhal. Can we run down California next? Yeah, I'm very curious how Prop 22 is doing. And. Bill Gurley ohh. Jesus the *** **** people are allowed. Bill, can you tell everyone what Prop 22 is and why, please, why? Why it got put on? Yeah. And and and and and it would transition to a whole bunch of conversations about politics that I I feel more passionate about than who gets elected. Which is if, you know, in order to solve the problems that everyone's upset about, with an inequality and whatnot, I think you have to have massive innovation. Then you have to have job growth. And I don't know of any waves in history where you get a whole bunch of improvement in in standard of living for broad swaths of a population without being positively aligned with job growth. And what there's where I'm going with this is my my biggest concern about Washington. I used to say the main reasons Silicon Valley works is because it's so ******* far away from DC, and it's because regulation is the friend of the incumbent. And it's the it's the opposite of innovation. It locks in things, and it's very resistant to change. And Matt Ridley's new book, How Innovation Works, goes through this over a very, very long period of time. It's it's fantastic. And he talks about why Europe's gotten stuck. And like the top 50 market cap companies in Europe, there's no new entrant in 30 years or something like that because of this anyway, Prop 22 is a California proposition. Action to a law that was put on the California books called AB 5. To the best of my knowledge, and this is consistent with the editorial groups at the LA Times, the San Francisco Chronicle, and the San Diego Tribune, is that it was written entirely by a Union SEIU who has no representation over over drivers or gig workers whatsoever. They represent service industry workers and they would like to represent Uber drivers, but they don't today. And I. I think I think about this like a a bunch of people living in Nevada trying to pass a law for the citizens of California. Unfortunately, because the regulatory capture, which which I think is unfortunate on both sides of the aisle, the Union table, through a woman named Lorena Gonzalez, is able to get the state to pass a law that that basically targeted gig workers, which was this new job type that has all these fantastic benefits anyway. Immediately thereafter, there were several industries. They're like, oh, we don't want this for us. So them and their unions and constituents started calling on Sacramento with Lorena Gonzalez and and and carving them out one by one. So by the by the time a B5 was set to be put in action, there are over 100 industries that have been carved out because it was a stupid law written just to target and a single industry, and it was written with political donor dollars. Now, in a moment. That, I would say, is completely outside of my realm of what I expected. All of the newspaper, all the editorial boards for all of the major newspapers in California came to the conclusion that this was a bad law, that this was crony capitalism written with donor dollars. And they all got behind Prop 22, which is because we have this ballot initiative in California as a way for the voters to tell Sacramento that they're full of **** and then looks like. What's happening right now? Sorry for the long answer. No, no, it's it's a it's a great answer. And what I what's particularly infuriating about this and listen you and I are both, you know, investors in companies impacted by this, is that it's there's a group of people who've been exempted from this and the list of people exempted all seem to be just slightly more powerful and slightly better paid. Sales people. Fishermen, psychologists. Surgeons, dentists, engineers, architects, lawyers, et cetera. And if this had passed or if it still does pass because we're only at 15 or 20% of people have been counted so far, but it's looking like Prop 22 will pass. Well, in one of the businesses I run,, we had to tell all of the Freelancers we were hiring, who are writers, that they would lose their gig, work with us because they could only write 5 stories a year, or 10. Stories a year and Vox, one of the big publishing companies, which is incredibly left-leaning as left as it gets. They stopped hiring people in California and they fired and laid off all their California freelance writers. Nick, and what this does to people who are doing gig economy, 70% of them are working part time. Nick, can you go back to can you I I need to switch topics. Nick, can you go to Georgia, please for a second little little late breaking data, over 400,000 votes outstanding in Atlanta and the suburbs. How close is Georgia? Let's see how, my God, it's a statistical dead heat if you add back in 400,000 for all. By now I'm just saying that's not where it's going to be, but. Yeah, I mean, Atlanta, Atlanta should go 70% by. Oh, sure it will. Yeah, maybe, maybe 7580, but I guess you'd have to be 100 to 0 to catch up, if I'm reading that right. You're cool enough to think that there's some operative in these states holding these on purpose so that they can be the center of importance tomorrow. No, I just think it's it's almost midnight on the East Coast and people are tired and they're going to go home and have a **** shower and a shave and start again tomorrow. Stressful. Always early, always knows how to diagnose the individual motivation system on a macro level, and he can diagnose the **** out of it by just thinking about what one guy's motive is and then he's figured the whole thing out. He makes a billion dollars over master of self-interest Bill Gurley. Here's what Trump here's what it comes down to. So Trump needs to win two out of four of these states, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or Michigan. And that he's gonna win two of those four. So it's gotta be probably Pennsylvania and Michigan or Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. But he's got to win. If he loses Nevada, he needs to win two out of those three Rust Belt states or he wins Nevada. Plus psycho Pennsylvania. This is going to be, this is going to be really Michigan's going to go to Trump is going to come down to Pennsylvania. And really to the to to the Philly suburbs. I was reading on Twitter, uh election official in Michigan says don't expect results before Friday. That's crazy. Well and by the way I mean so so, so but let's just think for a second how extraordinary it is that Trump looks like he might win Michigan. I mean just to go back to the you know the the theory of the of the case that we were laying out earlier about how China's about how Trump picked up this this China trade issue four years ago and and and this this time he combined it with the lockdown issue. I mean it's really amazing that that state. Is leaning Trump right now. Michigan. Michigan was two issues. It was you know working class Democrats feeling like Trump standing up for them with respect to China. And it was locked down and locked down, wasn't it wasn't overwhelming issue you know, for my, for my friends and my folks in Michigan for sure. Can we go back to Prop 22 for a second, Jason? Because I think that this is. You know, this is a an issue of extreme importance. You know, one of the things that Bill didn't say is, you know, we're talking earlier, Chamath brought up, you know, what's the 3rd way? You know, we, we we've, we've built a social contract on the back of kind of W2 tight employment for the better part of the last 70 years. We now have a massive part of the economy that's gig. And it's not just this is all freelancers, this is all part time workers and post COVID. This is just a massive portion of the economy and the idea that we're going to tie all benefits to W2 is just totally asinine. It's got to be rearchitected and what Prop 22 does. Is say it's IC plus. It's independent contractor plus benefits, right? It's this idea that we don't have to tie benefits to W2 employment. Right. So the nonsensical no argument against Prop 22 that this was an abandonment of the employee is just that it combines flexibility with benefits. And you know, from my perspective, you're going to see if Prop 22 passes, which I think it will tonight. It's going to be the architecture that New York and many other states follow. They're certainly not going to follow the disastrous AB five example. But we also know that it's not sufficient just to have a bunch of workers with with with zero healthcare and you know and so I think that this is a, you know hats off to DoorDash, Instacart, you know, Uber and Lyft trying to trying to design something that is a middle way. And you know, chamath if we don't have politicians designing a middle way. Right. Then we need leadership out of the business community, designing a middle way. Well that so you just said something so so profound and I was gonna I would like to build on that. I think what California shows is that. If you have a completely democratic up and down ticket and it veers too far to this. Coastal navel gazing, socialist nanny state. Then it requires money and companies. To basically level the playing field because the Republicans can't do it and it's possible to fight back. And what's interesting to me is nobody ever talks about or, or maybe they do, and I'll just don't hear it about how the equivalent happens on the right. I'd be interesting to know if you guys know of any states where there's just Republican up and down the ticket and they just veer into such a detached ****** faire where the whole state needs to get corrected by for profit organizations. But it's it seems like we're setting up for Democrats versus companies. And people moving to Republican states to have low taxes and to be left alone. Well, you know it's a sensible set of outcomes in California, right? I mean do you guys not agree that the the the yes on Prop 22 and sacks, it looks like your commercial property tax proposition that Zuck helped fund may not pass? It's a, it's a we don't know. It's a .1% differential right now, which I know, I agree. It's look, the California ballot initiatives are looking really good right now. It gives me a lot of hope. It gives me a lot of hope about the state because. The most anti economic, the most. Let's put a business on friendly ballot initiatives. Looks like they're going down starting you know, with the win on Prop 22. That's huge. But then prop 15, you know, we talked about that on a former episode of the All in Pod. This was chipping away at Prop 13, which is the Great Shield of the middle class in terms of property taxes. I'm not saying you couldn't get a better tax regime that would tax commercial property fair market value, but you sure wouldn't want to give that card away without. Commanding some structural reform in exchange for it, which is why I thought it was just so stupid for, you know, tech billionaire to be funding, you know, these, these ballot initiatives for higher taxes. You know, this is definitely looking like a like a sensible kind of middle ground outcome where a lot of folks who were concerned about California swinging all the way left and chasing business and enterprise out of the state, you know, maybe kind of getting reeled in. And I think it gives some hope and gives some pause to a lot of folks who are trying to build. Businesses in California to recognize that you know hey there there there is a thoughtful populace here totally agree and this is this is a great outcome tonight I feel I I personally feel really good about I agree I mean if this sticks it it's. It it it is because the the big the big issue with California right now is that we've got you know people we've got net migration out of the state because it's just so hard for for the middle class to live here and to build businesses here. I hope that we hear, you know if if we're fortunate enough for Prop 22 to pass. I hear we I hope we see a coalition. Among these companies come together and really promote this as a national architecture. For a third way, for independent contractors, free agents across the country to have a living wage and benefits that's totally detached from W2 employment, I really do believe bunch of people on this call will were helpful to an effort I launched around the board challenge. You know, it's high time for the social consciousness of corporate America to take the leadership position and because it's not coming out of Washington and there's so many issues. That the solution lies among us. And we gotta stop spending our election nights wondering when somebody's gonna deliver us from ourselves. We got to start delivering ourselves. Thank you. Resolve that unions, I mean like you know, girly, girly, are you still with us? Yes. How do you resolve things with the unions after this? I mean if Prop 22 passes, is there a, a, A coming to the middle ground with unions and or unions always just kind of directional vector, you know, they're always like a force on the system. They're not an absolute or objective, right. They're they're just always pushing in One Direction. I mean what ends up happening with the resolution with unions? Or is it just a constant back and forth to try and manage the impact they'll have on policy, politics, tax, free market, etcetera. So from from from my point of view the if you if you think about Citizens United, which a lot of people are upset about, I think rightfully so because DC is so money oriented like it's coin operated and a lot of people have vivid awareness of it being core coin operated on the right through corporations. This is why the most heavily regulated industries are the hardest to break into, hardest to innovate against. What what I think they missed is how much of it is, is, is regulatory capture on the left. And the difference that a Union has versus a company is it's a natural monopoly. And so it actually has more power to write regulation than a company does. But and it's going to be around every single election cycle. So if you listen to them, you know, you get what you want. And the, you know, people have pointed out that the the gentleman or he's not a gentleman, the the individual that that that killed George Floyd probably wouldn't have been on the force if it weren't for the Union protecting him because of the stuff he had done before. But and this goes back to the red and blue and blindness of just being dogmatic to your party. Most of the people I know that are heavily. Prescribed to the to the Democratic tribe refused to acknowledge that that one of the big problems in police reform comes from the unions and and you can't see those things unless you take yourself out of that single place. I will tell you the California situation I think is deeper than than maybe what Brad talked about there. The the rule, the law that's causing more companies to leave from my perspective than a B5 is something called Paga which was passed about 25 years ago. No, but it's finally reached momentum where it's causing problems for companies. And this was a law passed by litigators with donor dollars in Sacramento that lets any lawyer bring a case on behalf of the state against a company. And so they they're basically like local sheriffs just running around bringing claims. And of course, they'll settle every time the the the supposed victims are getting about 10% on average. Or packet claims. And once your company's been shook down on three or four pack of claims by a lawyer who's only going to give $0.10 on the dollar to these people that used to work for you, you finally just throw up your hands and say, you know, I don't need to hire someone here, I'll hire someone somewhere else. Cost twice as much to hire someone here. And so I I do worry that if any state or country wants to move forward in in our new economy, they can't just be completely. Anti business, anti tech. I have a strong point of view on that, but, like, it won't work. You're going to grind to a halt. Hey, Jay, Jason, can we go back to the Senate? Zabie prepared to. I'm getting a read from my analysts who are live blogging to me that the Senate is almost certain to go Republican at this point, with Iowa, Maine and North Carolina going Republican. That would do it. And Michigan and Montana both in real danger for Democrats, but even if they lost both of those. You're going to have 5149 to Republicans in the Senate. Hey, Brad, wire markets trading down a bit right now from where they were. I still have it at, you know, NASDAQ 280. So I'm not, I'm not prepared to call that down. I just think that's within bounds and Bovada I guess, which is the. But that evada just came back up. They stopped taking action. Now they've got Trump. Minus 150, is that how you say it? And Joe Biden plus 1:15, so two, if you put $100 on Joe Biden, you win 15, is that right? And if you win 100 and 15115? $15 one 15 is very close, Jason. And Donald Trump, if you were to put $100 in, you make 150, is that right, Phil Hellmuth, you're definitely a 150 to 100? Exactly. Got it. OK. I think the more surprising thing at this point is it's almost, you know, I'm certainly going to live to regret this, but it appears at this point that the market's going to be up tomorrow almost either way. And if you look at what the market was saying last week, you know, just yet another surprise. The market is celebrating the fact that this is a close election, but, you know, if it's a, if it's a contested transfer of power. And we have a, you know, there's there's certainly a lot of room for uncertainty, uncertainty to still be injected into this. But it likes the fact that we, whether it's Biden or Trump who pulls out the presidency, is certainly liking the fact that it's going to be a close election right now. Just to give people an indication, Fox News has Joe Biden at 227 electoral votes and Trump at 204. The New York Times is at 213 and 136 for Trump. The Senate on the New York Times is 44 Dems 45 Republicans. And I don't know how we're supposed to, who we're supposed to trust here. There's a Senate. The Senate on Fox News is 45 Democrat, 44 Republican. So this is a dead heat which I think could lean us towards the great reconciliation which is if Trump comes out of office, Biden becomes the elder statesman, Biden reaches across the aisle, we have a massive balance of power in the Senate. Everybody's forced to work together in order to get anything done. Am I correct in my reading of this as a non political expert? Well what you're describing is the great gerontocracy we'll have 78 year old Biden negotiating. 79 year old McConnell and Schumer is what, 7475? Pelosi is over 80 Steny Hoyer, her deputy, is over 80. So who do we have in the death pool? Because two or three of those are dying in the next four years. I don't mean to make it dark, but just looking at McConnell and his bruised hands and lips and everything, something's eating him alive. I'm not exactly sure what it is, but wow, that's a bad, bad scene. Yeah. Is that on the betting markets, Phil? That's that on the betting markets. And by the way, the other direction, you're talking about Trump, who's 74 negotiating. I mean, you know, it's it's we've got to get younger in our political leadership across the board. It's it's there. It's ridiculous. Who, who had a better chance of beating Trump? Would Bernie Elizabeth Warren or Buttigieg would one of those three if you had to pick one of those three and I think it's one of those Reds or you could pick your other. Which one would have performed better? Brad used with Brad. I'm with Brad on Mayor Pete for sure. I'm with Brad on that one here. Bill, you believe Mayor Pete would have had a better performance, he would have been more inspiring. He would have been more energy. I I think that there is a lot of people that that want what Brad talked about, which is someone who's who's rational and calm and and centered. And I also think that if you look at the history of of presidential campaigns, most Americans favor an outsider and I I attribute that to personally to them feeling like Washington's on the hook. You've been bought and you know, Biden would be an outlier for a lifetime senator. But there was a lot, there was a lot of excitement around Obama. There was a lot of excitement about Reagan who came, you know, from Hollywood. There was a lot of excitement about Clinton. So you know, a lot of governors, a lot of, a lot of first time senators is what you tend to see. And so Pete fit that mold. Some youth and some charisma would be nice. And and David the two Davids and Michael who do you think would have put up the best fight cause tonight if Biden does win and it's feeling maybe like that it's going to happen. So it's it's clearly a jump ball here it's any it's coming down to the last 30 seconds last minute of the game. If Biden does lose who would have been the candidate that would have beaten Trump if there was another one who would have had the next best chance? David's. Or Biden still looking pretty good right now. So I don't know that there, I don't know that there was somebody better, but I do agree that I always was most impressed with. Buttigieg out of the candidates in the sense that I thought he was the most articulate. I thought he was the best debater. I thought he was the best on TV, and he knew how to reach for the center. And he had that kind of Obama thing of having identity politics, politics working for him, but without making a big deal out of it. And and so, yeah, I mean he was. What you mean by that, Mr Sachs? Well, he's, he's gay. He'd be the first gay president, but he's not making that an explicit part of the reason to vote for him. And but it would have been a first and his voters would know that. But he doesn't want to, you know, he doesn't want to run on the idea of identity politics. And so, so he's not leading with that. He's not leading with it. I think that's a smart way to play it. It's, you know, Obama was obviously making an incredibly important first, but he didn't lead. That is the reason why you should vote for him. So to a certain extent, Hillary did lead with that. Hillary was gonna be the I'm with her, you know, and with her was the slogan. Yeah. And I think a lot of people did want to make that first, but I think you have those votes. You need to make the case to everybody else. So, yeah, I think he he's a great political athlete. And, you know, someone's got probably a bright future in the Democrat party. I'm seeing some people on Twitter say that Biden's now become the favorite, but I just checked Betfair. It's basically 1.1. It's very close now. Kind of crazy. This is going to come down to this is going to come down to Pennsylvania and Michigan. And it's going to take days to do those counts, and we'll probably end up in the courts at fair Friedberg, who would have done a better job here. The market already voted right. It voted for, for Biden. He is the the leading candidate. I don't know if anyone else would have performed Biden at this point. I think, you know the next in line was a very different ideology and that's Bernie and. You know, Bernie really is the contrast to, you know, the the points that we were making earlier. You either think that the way forward is to have the government leave me alone or to wrap me up in a blanket and give me a hot cocoa and rub my feet. And Bernie Sanders is the, you know, the guy in middle school who runs for class president and tells you the vending machines are all going to be free if you elect me. And that's a broadly, you know, like everyone votes for that guy and let me. Let me ask you a question, Brad, that I build off of David. I just think the Mayor Pete thing. By the way, let me just say I think Mayor Pete is a great, articulate, thoughtful guy and he certainly appealing to those of us who want to have a thoughtful, well articulated response to the problems we're facing. But I think that there is a guttural kind of, you know, innate Dr that folks want. They either want free **** or they want to be left alone. And you know, you're going to need to appeal to one of those two motives. How would you have voted? Had your choice been, and I'm going to go around the horn on this so everybody gets a chance to think about it, except really Brad. Brad if you had the choice. Yep. Elizabeth Warren Slash Bernie, ******** socialist. Let's go with Bernie since I think he's even more on the socialist side. Or Trump. Could you have conceived of voting for Trump over Bernie? Or would you have voted actually voted for Bernie Sanders? Take your time and you can think out loud when you answer. No. I mean, I I have to say that. Umm. You know, I have a 9 and 12 year old boy. Boys and the conversation we had is it's not just about. What you stand for, it's about how you stand for it. Character. Character and I just couldn't tolerate. Trump's character, either in my own life, my own level of anxiety, or or. Standing for that, you know, and and telling my boys that that's a OK way to lead. And so for me, I was willing to vote against my own interests. And taking comfort in the fact that four years under any president is not enough to really change the arc of of of the country, but to send a signal that, you know, how you lead matters in this country and a rejection of this form of leadership. Yeah, but Brad, if you didn't think that Bernie Sanders policies would actually, I mean, if you thought they would actually pass everything you wanted to do, you couldn't conceive then of voting for Trump. Yeah. I mean you know, again like I would just say that I would have bet that the system that we have would have been slow enough in moving that that Bernie would not have been. You know that when weighing those two evils. Right. That you know again for me socialism versus Trump are you're too can I can tolerate the mean spiritedness perhaps myself but you know like I'm trying to you know I think it is important that we we say that like this is not what. We stand for this is not a an honorable way to lead. And and certainly when it comes to sitting around the dinner table every night and talking to them about the way I expect them to behave and their former leadership, you know that that mean spiritedness just didn't work for me. Would anybody else like to answer that question or is it just, well, I'm not, I'm not gonna disagree with any of that. But I would just like to point out, I'd like to ask a question actually, which is if if this President was so bad that he had to be impeached, why wasn't that a campaign issue? I don't remember being mentioned once by Biden that Trump was impeached. You would think that impeaching the President would be something you'd want to make a major campaign issue. So I just think this idea that Trump is the only one who's dishonest and unethical, you know, that whole Russian insane hoax that they put us through for years, they put this whole country through before the guy even took office. They were trying to delegitimize his election. I mean, come on, you can't just look at Trump's behavior, which I agree is outrageous, and not look at the other side and say they're doing the same thing. And this is like a they're they're they're sort of like Co equal partners in this chaos that's been created. Anderson, chaos. Let's be candid. All these politicians that we've had to live with in our lifetime are grifters. We know that, and their kids are grifters. Putting that aside, do you think there is any chance? That the Russians have not bought an inordinate amount of apartments from Donald Trump at extraordinary prices. Are you just making that up or? I mean, I'm just going with my gut, right? Exactly. Yeah. QED. Case in point. Because you feel it. You can now make an accusation that the President has received bribes from the Russians. I mean, come on. Well, we know, and actually, I want to. I want to bring up something. Election. We all know Putin interfere with the election, and we all know he interfered on behalf of 1 candidate. OK, I honestly like, unless you don't trust the CIA. Unless you don't trust the FBI. If you. Unless you don't trust our agent. Really? I mean, you believe you're still holding the Russians? Every election we've ever had, Jason. Stories more than the New York Post. We had, we had Bob, we had Bob Mueller with a team of, like, 18 like Pitbull, Democratic prosecutors, and 50 special. What happened to FBI agents? Let me finish to Manafort, who investigated for two years and they couldn't find any collusion. I mean, come except for matter, and you're still hanging on to this, this insane fallacy, and you're wondering why the American people are turning against, why they're willing to vote for Trump again. Come on, can't you see the insanity of the other side? Well, I mean, I did see Manafort go to jail and pay a 20, five, $30 million fine. And I did see that Trump's kids took the meeting with the Russians to try to set up a secret back channel. So while they might not have been smart enough or effective enough to actually collude, there certainly was a lot of graph going this is this is this is on the level, if not worse than the whole hunter Biden hard drive story, which I thought Hunter Biden had ripped her too, which I thought was a ridiculous story and attempt to smear up Biden. Come on. For you to lay this integrity issue on Trump alone, which I agree there's some truth there and not lay it on his democratic inquisitors in the Senate who put in the house who put us through this impeachment hooks for two years. Come on, we're starting to sound a little like AM radio. Let's get we did go there. No. Sex is a free thinker. I like this. He's a free thinker for sure. But it's like you guys. But we're but this word. Impeachment, this entire campaign sex is saying is owned both sides of this I just. Counter by you initially say, well, everybody. Jason, can you say the word? I'm agreeing with you. Can you say it? Say the word impeachment. Impeachment, I just said, OK, there we go. I was wondering what happened to that word. You know, normally no, I normally when you are winning the President, if if you normally when you impeach a President it becomes a really big campaign issue. It becomes a really big campaign issue. Nick, can you please throw Georgia back on the map, please? Are you guys seeing this that that now they're tipping Georgia back to? Widen. Who, who is? This is insane. Well, they're also saying that Arizona may have been prematurely called for Biden, so Arizona may be back in play for Trump. That was really weird that they called Arizona so early, wasn't it, Nick? And only fox. Only Fox has done it, I think. Yeah. Nick, where do you have, how do you have Georgia reporting right now? How much is in right now? Yeah, click on Georgia just for a second. We have 81%. Yeah, the times had it flip on at 9:13 PM. I have a screenshot which shows Biden +4. And then North Carolina is now just Trump plus 1.1. In Arizona. Morning it's precincts reporting, right? It doesn't show mail Inns are by precinct or mail Inns or at the state level. Well, a precinct will have both mail Inns and Election Day votes and when they and when they say 81% of precincts reporting, that doesn't mean that 81% of precincts are finished reported. It's a very misleading number because what it means that 81% of precincts have reported. What they have, but it doesn't mean they're finished counting necessarily, right. So you know Atlanta is probably the precincts in Atlanta had probably reported some vote. In fact we we see that when we click on it. But there's obviously a lot of outstanding vote in Georgia. There could be outstanding vote in some precincts in North Carolina as well. And they at this point once you get into the 95% and above range, they do tend to be urban centers that are that obviously have a lot more vote to count it. This late at night, they go home. They finish in the morning or three days later. If you go zoom in on Arizona, please, 76% of voting, reporting. I mean, how is this possible? 54%, basically, I don't know. But in all those states, you're gonna have the intensity you had around hanging Chads and Dade County. You're just going to have, like massive tension and drama around counting each of these last. Yeah, we're going to have five Floridas. You knew 2020 would do this on the way out the door. Yeah. So, so Arizona, they counted all the the absentee ballots for the mail in ballots first, but the in person voting hasn't been counted yet. So you can't call that state if they haven't counted all the in person because Trump's going to do better with, you know, Election Day ballots. I agree it's premature. Well, it depends on whether they're considering Phoenix as part of that, right? OK. Why is Nevada only reporting 1%? In local news, there are now groups of people gathering at Oakland City Hall. So they they they go there when like. What night aren't they riding in Oakland? I mean, come on. In Berkeley, they smashed a pizzeria window. They do it every other week. Hey. Hey, guys, I wanna. I wanna just discuss an idea I have that might be a little bit cheeky, but since Jay Cal and I were getting into it before, I kind of want to. I want to talk about it a little bit. OK, let's do it. Which is I I've, I've called the Trump derangement score. Which is if you go to Twitter that yeah Trump derangement score. Which is if you go to Twitter and search Trump from your username it'll show you how many tweets you've you've published. That you've posted that mentioned the word Trump. And so I did this before the show to see which bestie had tweeted the most and see what the score was. And my sense is, like, if you're your score is like zero to 10, you haven't really paid a lot of attention to Trump. It's probably like very healthy. And then if you're in like the 10 to 30 range, you're paying a little more attention. Could be normal interest. Here it comes. Here it comes. 300 for myself, say, hold on. If you're in like the 30 to 50 range, I think you pretty much are infected. There's two strains. There's kind of the maggot strain and then there's the resistant strain. But clearly you've tested positive for Trump Derangement syndrome. And then I would say there's kind of like an advanced level where you can't even count how many tweets there are. You've got to like scroll and like you keep scrolling and you can't even get to the bottom. And that's that's like a level of infection. You need to immediately quarantine yourself. And so anyway, I I I did this and and anyway, the winner actually was Freeburg Freeburg only had he had a score of 1. He literally only had one tweet mentioning Trump for the last four years. I only had eight, but in fairness, five of them were posted yesterday to advertise this. This pod so I. That 21 was during this podcast, by the way. Yeah, both. At 20. I had 20. You had about 20. About 20. Yeah. And then jakal you, you were in scrolling territory. I couldn't even. I couldn't even count. I gave up. Well played. I I feel for you. I I really feel for you that you're hurting over this election. I you know, I don't like. I'm not trying to make fun of you or see you. Hey, guys. Guys, another just another quick update here that the Cobb County, Fulton County and Cobb County in Georgia are Pro Democrat. They're huge and they're at 31 percent, 58% and 70% and if you play these out. There's somewhere between 400 and 500,000. Potential incremental votes for Biden, which would eke out Georgia for Biden, potentially according to just this last. Just looking at Fox News, I think that they're trolling the libs. Because they have Trump at 210. And they have Joe Biden at 237. The The New York Times has let me just make sure I'm refreshing here, and I've latest data 213 to 1:45, so Fox is aggressively calling electoral votes. At a level that. The New York Times is is far behind. Like behind by 50, at least 100. What? What is the explanation of this? Wow. I this is. I mean, this is nuts. SNBC 205 electoral votes for Joe Biden. Which NBC has been the most conservative overall and DC has. What happens if it's tied? It can tie, right? We we still have that scenario on the table 260-9269. Yeah, there's probably a way to to get there. Let's see. Well, interestingly. Biden did not get that one district in Omaha, NE that he had targeted that Obama won his first time. That would give you one electoral vote in in Nebraska, Nebraska and Maine both. You get, you get 2 for winning the state and you get one for each of the congressional districts. So while while Biden was not going to play an overall in Nebraska, he had a shot at Omaha and that 27268 scenario we talked about earlier could have potentially. 260-9269 If that Omaha district was in play but the polling really missed Michael just to jump in BG Girl Girl he's got to hop Off Boys say bye to girl. Well, girl, miss your best to be. Speaking of Bill Gurley, how about Texas? I mean, I think, I think Texas is definitely going to be Republican, right, Michael? Yeah, that that one's trending far away from Biden. He looks like he's down about 500,000. How many points is that? No one's called that yet, right? It's bizarre that Florida and Texas are still listed as important. So that could explain what Jake's looking at between the disparity. And I don't blame Fox. If Fox called Texas. I don't blame them. But I think Arizona. Yeah, that might that might explain your difference, Jacob. Texas and Florida. Yeah, that's 6067 votes right there. Yeah, that explains it. Yeah. So the New York Times has not called Florida or Texas, which the New York Times had Florida at 98%. I think it's like 99.9 or something, right? If you add 38 for Texas, 29 for Florida, you're 6767 onto the 1:45 puts you at 212 and Joe Biden at 213, Ralph. One point difference, Ralph. Warnock and Kelly Loffler and runoff for the Senate seat in Georgia. That's just incredible. I mean, hey guys, a comment and then a question. It looks like the Washington Post is projecting that California approved prop 22. So there is a there's a first one. Right now I think right do we have 5 does not speaking yet, but he's, he's getting applied to speak implied volatility on Uber stock at the at the close today was 14%. But by the way every ballot initiative in San Francisco, the city level ballot initiatives passed one of them, the Prop 8 was good all the rest were disaster. So so so the the state level ballot initiatives were pretty good news for California, but San Francisco, OK not much of that so you know in terms of what we were talking about earlier about. Creating a more business friendly environment. Unfortunately, what happened in San Francisco, I think California as a whole is positive with Prop 22, Prop 15 failing, but every single crazy ballot initiative in San Francisco Pass, so it's just getting crazier. And so I don't know if you did this in your household, but with my 10 year old Brad I went through my wife and I jade we we went through each of the ballot initiatives as many as we could. We listen to little encapsulations of. What they were when we talked about the stem cell one. And I just thought, why is California? Which is losing. All of these businesses adding to the tax burden. Stem cell research and why isn't that being done by the private sector? If there is a huge prize to be had with stem cell, why would we have California send billions of dollars on this when we're losing all the this government? I'm wondering, you know how how people thought about something like that, like the stem cell. Did you vote for that, David? To continue to have California flip the bill for style. By the way, just before you answer David, I took the pages of the ballot initiative and I use them to keep my white truffles from developing humidity. I mean, basically there are truths that matter, Jason, is that when when I don't understand about initiative, I just vote against it. And I didn't really understand that the the stem cell ballot initiative or why even why the if if that was a spending priority why it couldn't just be handled by the state, you know the legislature. I didn't understand why that needed to be a ballot initiative. So, you know, I feel like ballot initiatives like I'll support them when the when the state legislature does something wrong. Like it was a perfect example where, you know, Lorraine or whatever the had this tremendous amount of power passed this crazy AB5 and the people had to overrule that. So I feel like that's where like these ballot initiatives make sense is when you want to overrule the legislature. But, you know, it's kind of crazy for. To be passing these laws directly when you know we don't know that much about them. Concur. I mean the Founders had this vision of representative democracy, not direct democracy and that's generally a good idea. So, Jason, I don't know, you have to kind of like what director the results that direct democracy has produced tonight, the initiatives may be saving us from ourselves since we don't have in this state unfortunately a viable Republican Party to represent us. This the initiatives may be our last line of defense. Well, I think I think you're right in terms of overruling things, but like in in San Francisco, you know, every single battle. Should have passed. And I think most of them are. Well, there's no saving San Francisco. We all knew that. Well, I don't like hearing that. Come to LA, baby. We're we got a few more years at least. What is the consensus view? Seems to be the markets are still up, NASDAQ futures up to 80 still what? What causes us to wake up tomorrow or the next day and have the futures down 3, four, 500 bits? There's there's one thing and so far it hasn't happened, and if we avoid it, we're going to fade a really big out here, which is Trump declares victory right now. I think that is the disaster scenario because I think Biden's going to get up there. He's not going to say much of anything. He'll be very kind of down the middle, you know, kind of, let's take a wait and see approach. We're waiting until tomorrow. There's a lot to go, grind it out, blah, blah, blah. But if Trump comes out and says we won, we're done. Let's move on. It's going to be, uh, panicked. Because, look, you, I mean, he's you can't certify Georgia, apparently, right? So, you know, there there's a, there's a path where there's seven or eight states that have to go through 1 meticulous recount. I think this thing is back to a coin flip. I mean, Trump now has to win Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania in order to win the presidency. If Biden wins any one of those three states, he wins. He has to be a 3 for three in Georgia, Pennsylvania and Michigan. 343 is not well, but we're saying that may that may become ungod. So if if he loses Georgia, he loses. If he loses Pennsylvania, he loses. If he loses Michigan, he loses, assuming he's already. Lost Wisconsin and and Arizona. So hey guys, Biden's coming out, but my analyst just run this analysis. If Biden wins Ann Arbor and Detroit by the same percentage as 2016, that's 420,000 Biden incremental votes versus the 300,000 current Trump lead. Let's just apply the math and he wins Michigan. We feel good about where we are. We really do. I'm here to tell you tonight we believe we're on track to win this election. We knew because of the unprecedented early vote in the mail, in vote. That's gonna take a while. We're going to have to be patient until we the hard work of tallying the votes is finished. And it ain't over till every vote is counted. Every ballot is counted. But we're feeling good. We're feeling good about where we are. We believe one of the Nets has suggested we've already won Arizona, but we're confident about Arizona. That's a turn around. We also just called it from Minnesota. And we're still in a game in Georgia, although that's not what we expected. And we're feeling real good about Wisconsin and Michigan. And by the way. It's gonna take time to count the votes. We're gonna win Pennsylvania. There it is, folks in Philly, Allegheny County, Scranton, and they're really encouraged by the turn out of what they see. Look, you know, we could know the results as early as tomorrow morning. But it may take a little longer. As I've said all along, it's not my place or Donald Trump's place to declare who's won this election. That's the decision of the American people. But I'm optimistic about this outcome. I wanna thank everyone of you came out and voted in this election. And by the way, Chris ***** and the Democrats, congratulations here in Delaware. Farming. Hey, John, give the Gov. Yeah, the whole team, man. You've done a great job. I'm grateful to the poll workers, to our volunteers, our canvassers, everyone who participated in this democratic process. And I'm grateful to all my supporters here in Delaware and all across the nation. Thank you. Thank you, thank you. And, folks, you heard me say it before. Every time I walk out of my grandpa's house up and scream and yell. Joey, keep the faith. My grandma, when she's live, you'll know. Joey. Spread it. Keep the faith, guys. We're gonna win this. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Oh my God. Well, there, you guys. Before, before, before we just. I just wanted to give a big shout out. And thank you to Brad Gerstner. Incredible investor and person and thinker. Thank you BG for being on the call. Thanks for having me guys. Really appreciate it. Thanks to Bill Gurley who stepped in and Phil Hellmuth. This has been a great first time effort. We, we, we had like think about 4000 of you at the peak here and and and certainly 5 or 6000 over the night. This was an experiment I think a successful one and of course I'm speaking about this country America. What a successful experiment it has been to Jason. Jason, you can unclench. You're you're nether regions. Because I think we're going to be OK. I think we're going to be OK. Yeah, it's very tight. Anyway, see you, guys. Goodnight. Thank you. Thank you. I'm changing my prediction to scenario 3. Biden presidency. Yeah, let's do that as we wrap besties. Besties. Besties. Whip Biden, I'm still sticking with Biden, OK. Trump just tweeted that I'll be making a statement tonight. A big win. So we we're either in scenarios. Well, I mean, it's 323 and four are all still on the floor just for I don't know if the viewers remember scenario one was a Biden landslide. That's clearly not happening. Two was was basically. Was was Trump pulling a big upset that's still on the table? I'd say probably. 49% chance right now, 4045% chance. Then you've kind of got the scenario three was the soft landing where Biden wins the presidency, but the Republicans take the the Senate and I think it's probably like the 51%. And then scenario four was the **** show. That was a totally inconclusive outcome. And here we are. Here we are. So I mean the reality is I think this thing, I mean, I think it's probably at the end of the day 5149 in favor of Biden right now, but. We probably have at least three more days and maybe a bunch of court cases. This could this could be really bad. I mean, we may not know who the winner is till December and this may require another Supreme Court case. I think we'll know within a week who won. But it's gonna be a, it's gonna be a a white knuckle kind of week. We did you well, no, I think we're going to know tomorrow. Tomorrow I'm with I I guess, you know, I guess based on the electoral map, I'd say it's 5149 in favor of Biden at this. OK, so sax wants Biden to win. Friedberg, where are you at the end of this **** show? I was known as 2020. I was looking at which island in Hawaii I want to go to. I'm I'm looking at Austin and then just to look at our final. The dogs are getting a little better for Trump, I'm wondering. Who the hell knows? This has been an incredible evening. Feel better about the market reaction? I feel like, you know, those of us who operate businesses and try and build businesses and, you know, have employees and all this stuff, I mean, I'm disappointed in San Francisco. It's a ******* **** show of the city. But I feel good about the fact that markets are taking this well and it it, you know, means businesses will continue to operate and find funding and shout out Bill Lee and Hawaii. What's your pick? And then jakal and then we're going to bounce. Have to go with the math. I think Trump Dollar 60 is pretty significant. So I have to pick that direction. Alright, everybody. This has been a special edition of the Love You, besties. Thank you, Michael. Besties. Thank you. Thanks for having me. I enjoyed it. Thank you. Later, guys. Bye, guys. Poker table soon. Soon. Yes. Bye. Bye.